Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OU wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
OU
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.8 (27th, offence 75th, defence 5th)
Returning production
63% (pass 92%, rush 122%, receiving 42%)
FLA
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
18.5 (12th, offence 9th, defence 31st)
Returning production
69% (pass 94%, rush 89%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
OU
FLA
pass rate, all downs
48%68th
38%126th
pass rate, standard downs
41%78th
30%131st
pass rate, 1st down
37%106th
30%127th
no-huddle share
28%104th
58%75th
pass rate, red zone
38%68th
23%124th
pass rate, passing downs
65%59th
62%78th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.167th
31.122nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
OU offence
OU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.045
255
129 of 138
success rate
0.392
255
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.112
255
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.260
255
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.362
255
125 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.542
255
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.293
255
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
255
75 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.714
255
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.432
255
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
255
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.603
255
126 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.223
255
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
255
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.389
255
102 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
255
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.118
255
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
255
33 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
255
42 of 138
FLA offence
FLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.413
285
7 of 138
success rate
0.516
285
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
285
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
285
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.480
285
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.133
285
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.599
285
8 of 138
pass: success rate
0.585
285
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.557
285
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
285
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.356
285
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.232
285
53 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
285
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
285
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.548
285
2 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.091
285
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
285
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
285
31 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
285
114 of 138
OU defence
OU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.182
227
2 of 138
success rate
0.304
227
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
227
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.104
227
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.287
227
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.171
227
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.162
227
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
227
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.322
227
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
227
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
227
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.364
227
20 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
227
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
227
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.083
227
8 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.216
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.145
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
227
96 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.100
227
5 of 138
FLA defence
FLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.036
289
36 of 138
success rate
0.405
289
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.146
289
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.063
289
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
289
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
289
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.116
289
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
289
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.305
289
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
289
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.314
289
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.046
289
102 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.109
289
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
289
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
289
115 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
289
120 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
289
96 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
289
127 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
289
93 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs