Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MISS wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
AUB
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.4 (31st, offence 53rd, defence 16th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 26%, receiving 9%)
MISS
Games
4
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.1 (32nd, offence 12th, defence 75th)
Returning production
50% (pass 79%, rush 84%, receiving 19%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AUB
MISS
pass rate, all downs
51%45th
59%6th
pass rate, standard downs
46%41st
55%2nd
pass rate, 1st down
46%48th
62%1st
no-huddle share
96%11th
75%55th
pass rate, passing downs
63%68th
70%38th
pass rate, red zone
37%76th
39%65th
seconds per play (own drives)
22.3138th
24.1135th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AUB offence
AUB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
285
84 of 138
success rate
0.428
285
84 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.268
285
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
285
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
285
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.989
285
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
285
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.401
285
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.583
285
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
285
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.378
285
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.278
285
45 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
285
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
285
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.120
285
58 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
285
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.098
285
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
285
66 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
285
38 of 138
MISS offence
MISS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
276
38 of 138
success rate
0.518
276
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.162
276
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
276
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
276
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
276
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.435
276
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.526
276
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
276
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.568
276
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
276
31 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.935
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
276
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.760
276
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
276
23 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
276
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
276
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.054
276
71 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
276
37 of 138
AUB defence
AUB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.009
317
46 of 138
success rate
0.375
317
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.214
317
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
317
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
317
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.924
317
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.128
317
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
317
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
317
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
317
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
317
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.569
317
39 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
317
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.682
317
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
317
78 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
317
56 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
317
74 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
317
47 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
317
79 of 138
MISS defence
MISS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.225
276
126 of 138
success rate
0.471
276
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.145
276
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
276
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.478
276
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.952
276
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.302
276
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
276
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.480
276
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.540
276
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
276
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.900
276
76 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
276
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
276
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
276
112 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
276
25 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
276
48 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
276
26 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
276
13 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs