Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIZ wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
MIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
13.7 (25th, offence 40th, defence 14th)
Returning production
42% (pass -2%, rush 78%, receiving 33%)
ARK
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 59th, defence 90th)
Returning production
14% (pass 19%, rush 14%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MIZ
ARK
pass rate, all downs
47%79th
58%8th
pass rate, standard downs
39%90th
47%27th
pass rate, 1st down
34%116th
51%20th
no-huddle share
92%19th
88%26th
pass rate, passing downs
63%70th
77%11th
pass rate, red zone
29%112th
38%71st
seconds per play (own drives)
27.398th
28.776th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MIZ offence
MIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.199
280
60 of 138
success rate
0.436
280
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
280
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.042
280
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
280
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.768
280
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.459
280
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
280
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.672
280
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
280
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.330
280
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.099
280
71 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
280
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
280
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
280
80 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
280
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.086
280
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.082
280
128 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
61.500
280
137 of 138
ARK offence
ARK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.049
306
109 of 138
success rate
0.422
306
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
306
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.075
306
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.386
306
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.566
306
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.181
306
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
306
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.460
306
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
306
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
306
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.579
306
127 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.181
306
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
306
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
306
93 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.180
306
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
306
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.088
306
135 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
306
57 of 138
MIZ defence
MIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.004
271
48 of 138
success rate
0.354
271
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.412
271
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
271
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.363
271
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
271
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.071
271
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
271
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
271
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
271
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
271
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.481
271
28 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
271
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
271
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.263
271
62 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.221
271
130 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
271
118 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.089
271
126 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.200
271
130 of 138
ARK defence
ARK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
229
106 of 138
success rate
0.432
229
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.110
229
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.193
229
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
229
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.906
229
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.160
229
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
229
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.363
229
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
229
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.188
229
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
229
117 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
229
24 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
229
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.143
229
135 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
229
41 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
229
63 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.048
229
36 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
229
31 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs