Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TEX wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
MISS
Games
4
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.1 (32nd, offence 12th, defence 75th)
Returning production
50% (pass 79%, rush 84%, receiving 19%)
TEX
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
22.4 (7th, offence 16th, defence 5th)
Returning production
72% (pass 85%, rush 126%, receiving 55%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MISS
TEX
pass rate, all downs
59%6th
47%76th
pass rate, standard downs
55%2nd
39%94th
pass rate, 1st down
62%1st
42%71st
no-huddle share
75%55th
91%21st
pass rate, passing downs
70%38th
64%64th
pass rate, red zone
39%65th
43%48th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.1135th
28.578th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MISS offence
MISS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
276
38 of 138
success rate
0.518
276
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.162
276
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
276
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
276
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
276
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.435
276
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.526
276
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
276
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.568
276
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
276
31 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.935
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
276
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.760
276
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
276
23 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
276
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
276
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.054
276
71 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
276
37 of 138
TEX offence
TEX offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.110
290
90 of 138
success rate
0.455
290
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
290
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
290
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
290
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.790
290
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.280
290
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
290
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.562
290
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
290
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.362
290
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.818
290
109 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
290
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
290
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
290
54 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
290
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.130
290
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
290
37 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
290
111 of 138
MISS defence
MISS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.225
276
126 of 138
success rate
0.471
276
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.145
276
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
276
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.478
276
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.952
276
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.302
276
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
276
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.480
276
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.540
276
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
276
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.900
276
76 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
276
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
276
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
276
112 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
276
25 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
276
48 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
276
26 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
276
13 of 138
TEX defence
TEX defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.056
260
29 of 138
success rate
0.350
260
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.094
260
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.074
260
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
260
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.791
260
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.033
260
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.331
260
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
260
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.397
260
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
260
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.554
260
37 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
260
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
260
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.190
260
10 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.206
260
124 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
260
126 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
260
84 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
260
85 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs