Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TA&M wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
TA&M
Games
4
Plays per game
74.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
8.9 (39th, offence 38th, defence 44th)
Returning production
73% (pass 97%, rush 68%, receiving 61%)
ALA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
23.0 (6th, offence 7th, defence 13th)
Returning production
26% (pass 12%, rush -67%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TA&M
ALA
pass rate, all downs
51%49th
45%98th
pass rate, standard downs
42%60th
37%103rd
pass rate, 1st down
38%104th
35%110th
no-huddle share
88%25th
6%131st
pass rate, passing downs
71%34th
64%61st
pass rate, red zone
35%85th
32%100th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.266th
31.714th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TA&M offence
TA&M offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.043
298
111 of 138
success rate
0.443
298
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.074
298
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.094
298
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
298
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.820
298
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.022
298
119 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
298
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.405
298
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
298
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
298
34 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.216
298
57 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.166
298
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
298
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.360
298
43 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
298
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.077
298
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
298
130 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
298
116 of 138
ALA offence
ALA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.327
267
16 of 138
success rate
0.494
267
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.332
267
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
267
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
267
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
267
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.470
267
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.491
267
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.628
267
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.541
267
33 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.370
267
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
267
89 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
267
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
267
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.357
267
4 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
267
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
267
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
267
75 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
267
122 of 138
TA&M defence
TA&M defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
226
68 of 138
success rate
0.385
226
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.307
226
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.079
226
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
226
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
226
36 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.218
226
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
226
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.851
226
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
226
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.281
226
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
226
59 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
226
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
226
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.053
226
54 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
226
87 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
226
100 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
226
71 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
226
45 of 138
ALA defence
ALA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.098
249
20 of 138
success rate
0.341
249
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
249
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.174
249
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.311
249
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.913
249
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.018
249
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
249
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.826
249
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.391
249
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
249
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.198
249
8 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
249
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.824
249
101 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.189
249
111 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
249
87 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
249
114 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
249
122 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs