Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ALA wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
ALA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
23.0 (6th, offence 7th, defence 13th)
Returning production
26% (pass 12%, rush -67%, receiving 41%)
TENN
Games
4
Plays per game
71.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
17.7 (14th, offence 14th, defence 26th)
Returning production
35% (pass 7%, rush 48%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ALA
TENN
pass rate, all downs
45%98th
42%114th
pass rate, standard downs
37%103rd
41%79th
pass rate, 1st down
35%110th
41%88th
no-huddle share
6%131st
83%40th
pass rate, passing downs
64%61st
45%134th
pass rate, red zone
32%100th
31%103rd
seconds per play (own drives)
31.714th
27.495th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ALA offence
ALA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.327
267
16 of 138
success rate
0.494
267
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.332
267
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
267
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
267
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
267
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.470
267
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.491
267
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.628
267
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.541
267
33 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.370
267
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
267
89 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
267
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
267
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.357
267
4 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
267
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
267
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
267
75 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
267
122 of 138
TENN offence
TENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.224
287
52 of 138
success rate
0.456
287
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.208
287
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.311
287
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.485
287
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
287
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
287
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
287
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.361
287
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
287
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
287
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.540
287
16 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
287
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.308
287
5 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
287
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
287
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
287
41 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
287
67 of 138
ALA defence
ALA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.098
249
20 of 138
success rate
0.341
249
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
249
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.174
249
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.311
249
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.913
249
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.018
249
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
249
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.826
249
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.391
249
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
249
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.198
249
8 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
249
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.824
249
101 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.189
249
111 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
249
87 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
249
114 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
249
122 of 138
TENN defence
TENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.086
257
22 of 138
success rate
0.358
257
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.064
257
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.081
257
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
257
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.026
257
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.144
257
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
257
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.095
257
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.406
257
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
257
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.031
257
99 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
257
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
257
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.227
257
11 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.218
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.148
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
257
97 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
257
73 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs