Betting
Spread
ALA favouredMarket ALA −1.5Ours ALA −2.3
TENN favouredgap 0.8 toward ALA
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ALA away | -1.5 | 29.0 | -120 | 52.2% | — |
| TENN home | +1.5 | 27.5 | +100 | 47.8% | — |
| Total | 56.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ALA away | -2.5 | 29.4 | 56.6% | -1.0 |
| TENN home | +2.5 | 27.1 | 43.4% | +1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ALA | TENN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +5.026th | +3.138th |
| Defence (cards) | +3.112th | +2.418th |
| Card team rating | +8.118th | +5.535th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +23.06th | +17.714th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.25th | +0.911th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.86th | +1.411th |
| Card line | TENN +2.3 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 26% | 35% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Keelon Russell ALA84 ▲2 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.577
Completion70.9%
TD–INT8-2
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game288
Rush yards, median game46
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
Faizon Brandon TENN80 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.267
Completion62.4%
TD–INT7-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game163
Rush yards, median game35
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ALA away | 3-1 | 75% | +10.5 | 4-0 | +17.3 |
| TENN home | 2-2 | 50% | +1.5 | 1-3 | -3.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| ALA | all | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| ALA | all | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| ALA | favourite | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| ALA | favourite | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| ALA | day | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| ALA | day | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| ALA | away | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| ALA | away division | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| ALA | away favourite | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| TENN | underdog | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Neyland Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ALA | A. Walker WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Walker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Mississippi State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| TENN | W. Moe Jr. OG | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Moe Jr has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury. |
| TENN | J. Baker RB | questionable Hand | Sat, Sep 26 | Baker is nursing with a hand injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Gordon RB | questionable Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | Gordon is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | F. Brandon QB | questionable Upper Body | Sat, Sep 26 | Brandon is dealing with an upper body injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Harmon LB | out Knee | Mon, Sep 7 | Harmon has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to ACL tear. |