Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OU wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
UK
Games
4
Plays per game
63.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.0 (44th, offence 40th, defence 47th)
Returning production
19% (pass -3%, rush -9%, receiving 35%)
OU
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.8 (27th, offence 75th, defence 5th)
Returning production
63% (pass 92%, rush 122%, receiving 42%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UK
OU
pass rate, all downs
45%97th
48%68th
pass rate, standard downs
42%68th
41%78th
pass rate, 1st down
39%96th
37%106th
no-huddle share
14%117th
28%104th
pass rate, red zone
33%96th
38%68th
pass rate, passing downs
56%109th
65%59th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.535th
29.167th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UK offence
UK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
252
47 of 138
success rate
0.516
252
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.203
252
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.209
252
37 of 138
rush: success rate
0.548
252
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.948
252
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.267
252
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.463
252
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
252
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
252
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.321
252
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.460
252
25 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.156
252
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
252
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
252
20 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
252
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
252
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
252
47 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
252
96 of 138
OU offence
OU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.045
255
129 of 138
success rate
0.392
255
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.112
255
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.260
255
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.362
255
125 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.542
255
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.293
255
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
255
75 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.714
255
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.432
255
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
255
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.603
255
126 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.223
255
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
255
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.389
255
102 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
255
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.118
255
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
255
33 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
255
42 of 138
UK defence
UK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.016
290
57 of 138
success rate
0.417
290
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
290
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.141
290
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
290
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
290
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
290
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
290
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
290
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
290
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.348
290
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.806
290
65 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.168
290
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
290
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.577
290
82 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
290
100 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
43 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.100
290
134 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.900
290
24 of 138
OU defence
OU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.182
227
2 of 138
success rate
0.304
227
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
227
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.104
227
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.287
227
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.171
227
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.162
227
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
227
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.322
227
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
227
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
227
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.364
227
20 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
227
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
227
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.083
227
8 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.216
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.145
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
227
96 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.100
227
5 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs