Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UGA wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
AUB
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.4 (31st, offence 53rd, defence 16th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 26%, receiving 9%)
UGA
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
30.2 (1st, offence 1st, defence 1st)
Returning production
69% (pass 100%, rush 99%, receiving 35%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AUB
UGA
pass rate, all downs
51%45th
47%74th
pass rate, standard downs
46%41st
46%39th
pass rate, 1st down
46%48th
44%59th
no-huddle share
96%11th
46%85th
pass rate, passing downs
63%68th
52%122nd
pass rate, red zone
37%76th
44%40th
seconds per play (own drives)
22.3138th
32.87th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AUB offence
AUB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
285
84 of 138
success rate
0.428
285
84 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.268
285
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
285
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
285
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.989
285
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
285
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.401
285
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.583
285
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
285
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.378
285
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.278
285
45 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
285
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
285
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.120
285
58 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
285
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.098
285
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
285
66 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
285
38 of 138
UGA offence
UGA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.425
242
4 of 138
success rate
0.533
242
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
242
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.328
242
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.516
242
18 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
242
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.567
242
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.556
242
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.541
242
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.601
242
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.322
242
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.691
242
10 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.119
242
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.882
242
9 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.821
242
1 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
242
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
242
50 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
242
130 of 138
AUB defence
AUB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.009
317
46 of 138
success rate
0.375
317
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.214
317
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
317
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
317
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.924
317
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.128
317
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
317
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
317
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
317
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
317
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.569
317
39 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
317
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.682
317
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
317
78 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
317
56 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
317
74 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
317
47 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
317
79 of 138
UGA defence
UGA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.143
266
10 of 138
success rate
0.331
266
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.420
266
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.267
266
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.496
266
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
266
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
266
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.434
266
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.422
266
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
266
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.030
266
4 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
266
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
266
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
266
47 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
266
108 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
266
112 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
266
79 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
266
65 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs