Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LSU wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
LSU
Games
4
Plays per game
79.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
21.3 (10th, offence 22nd, defence 4th)
Returning production
21% (pass 13%, rush 40%, receiving 20%)
UK
Games
4
Plays per game
63.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.0 (44th, offence 40th, defence 47th)
Returning production
19% (pass -3%, rush -9%, receiving 35%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LSU
UK
pass rate, all downs
44%101st
45%97th
pass rate, standard downs
39%87th
42%68th
no-huddle share
86%28th
14%117th
pass rate, 1st down
45%54th
39%96th
pass rate, passing downs
56%105th
56%109th
pass rate, red zone
35%86th
33%96th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4115th
30.535th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LSU offence
LSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
318
48 of 138
success rate
0.478
318
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.282
318
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
318
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
318
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
318
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.345
318
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
318
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
318
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
318
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.398
318
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
318
79 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
318
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
318
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.061
318
61 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
318
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
318
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
318
124 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.400
318
128 of 138
UK offence
UK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
252
47 of 138
success rate
0.516
252
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.203
252
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.209
252
37 of 138
rush: success rate
0.548
252
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.948
252
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.267
252
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.463
252
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
252
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
252
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.321
252
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.460
252
25 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.156
252
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
252
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
252
20 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
252
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
252
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
252
47 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
252
96 of 138
LSU defence
LSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
241
4 of 138
success rate
0.303
241
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.184
241
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
241
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
241
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.727
241
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
241
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
241
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
241
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.354
241
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
241
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.200
241
9 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.240
241
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
241
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
241
104 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
241
131 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.154
241
130 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
241
98 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.300
241
110 of 138
UK defence
UK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.016
290
57 of 138
success rate
0.417
290
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
290
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.141
290
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
290
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
290
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
290
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
290
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
290
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
290
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.348
290
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.806
290
65 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.168
290
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
290
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.577
290
82 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
290
100 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
43 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.100
290
134 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.900
290
24 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs