Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UGA wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
UGA
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
30.2 (1st, offence 1st, defence 1st)
Returning production
69% (pass 100%, rush 99%, receiving 35%)
ALA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
23.0 (6th, offence 7th, defence 13th)
Returning production
26% (pass 12%, rush -67%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UGA
ALA
pass rate, all downs
47%74th
45%98th
pass rate, standard downs
46%39th
37%103rd
pass rate, 1st down
44%59th
35%110th
no-huddle share
46%85th
6%131st
pass rate, passing downs
52%122nd
64%61st
pass rate, red zone
44%40th
32%100th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.87th
31.714th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UGA offence
UGA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.425
242
4 of 138
success rate
0.533
242
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
242
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.328
242
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.516
242
18 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
242
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.567
242
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.556
242
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.541
242
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.601
242
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.322
242
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.691
242
10 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.119
242
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.882
242
9 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.821
242
1 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
242
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
242
50 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
242
130 of 138
ALA offence
ALA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.327
267
16 of 138
success rate
0.494
267
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.332
267
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
267
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
267
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
267
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.470
267
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.491
267
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.628
267
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.541
267
33 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.370
267
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
267
89 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
267
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
267
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.357
267
4 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
267
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
267
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
267
75 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
267
122 of 138
UGA defence
UGA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.143
266
10 of 138
success rate
0.331
266
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.420
266
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.267
266
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.496
266
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
266
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
266
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.434
266
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.422
266
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
266
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.030
266
4 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
266
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
266
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
266
47 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
266
108 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
266
112 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
266
79 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
266
65 of 138
ALA defence
ALA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.098
249
20 of 138
success rate
0.341
249
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
249
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.174
249
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.311
249
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.913
249
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.018
249
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
249
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.826
249
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.391
249
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
249
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.198
249
8 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
249
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.824
249
101 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.189
249
111 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
249
87 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
249
114 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
249
122 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs