Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TA&M wins about 91% of the time at a number like ours.
ARK
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 59th, defence 90th)
Returning production
14% (pass 19%, rush 14%, receiving 12%)
TA&M
Games
4
Plays per game
74.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
8.9 (39th, offence 38th, defence 44th)
Returning production
73% (pass 97%, rush 68%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARK
TA&M
pass rate, all downs
58%8th
51%49th
pass rate, standard downs
47%27th
42%60th
pass rate, 1st down
51%20th
38%104th
no-huddle share
88%26th
88%25th
pass rate, passing downs
77%11th
71%34th
pass rate, red zone
38%71st
35%85th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.776th
29.266th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARK offence
ARK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.049
306
109 of 138
success rate
0.422
306
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
306
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.075
306
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.386
306
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.566
306
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.181
306
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
306
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.460
306
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
306
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
306
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.579
306
127 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.181
306
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
306
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
306
93 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.180
306
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
306
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.088
306
135 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
306
57 of 138
TA&M offence
TA&M offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.043
298
111 of 138
success rate
0.443
298
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.074
298
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.094
298
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
298
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.820
298
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.022
298
119 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
298
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.405
298
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
298
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
298
34 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.216
298
57 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.166
298
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
298
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.360
298
43 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
298
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.077
298
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
298
130 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
298
116 of 138
ARK defence
ARK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
229
106 of 138
success rate
0.432
229
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.110
229
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.193
229
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
229
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.906
229
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.160
229
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
229
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.363
229
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
229
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.188
229
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
229
117 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
229
24 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
229
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.143
229
135 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
229
41 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
229
63 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.048
229
36 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
229
31 of 138
TA&M defence
TA&M defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
226
68 of 138
success rate
0.385
226
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.307
226
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.079
226
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
226
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
226
36 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.218
226
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
226
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.851
226
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
226
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.281
226
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
226
59 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
226
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
226
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.053
226
54 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
226
87 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
226
100 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
226
71 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
226
45 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs