Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UGA wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
VAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.5 (48th, offence 46th, defence 45th)
Returning production
35% (pass 9%, rush 50%, receiving 50%)
UGA
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
30.2 (1st, offence 1st, defence 1st)
Returning production
69% (pass 100%, rush 99%, receiving 35%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
VAN
UGA
pass rate, all downs
50%54th
47%74th
pass rate, standard downs
43%57th
46%39th
pass rate, 1st down
49%31st
44%59th
no-huddle share
51%82nd
46%85th
pass rate, red zone
39%67th
44%40th
pass rate, passing downs
68%50th
52%122nd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.950th
32.87th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
VAN offence
VAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
272
101 of 138
success rate
0.415
272
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.180
272
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
272
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
272
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
272
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.202
272
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
272
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.301
272
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
272
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
272
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.050
272
81 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.150
272
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
272
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.120
272
116 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
272
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
272
49 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
272
84 of 138
UGA offence
UGA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.425
242
4 of 138
success rate
0.533
242
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
242
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.328
242
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.516
242
18 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
242
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.567
242
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.556
242
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.541
242
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.601
242
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.322
242
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.691
242
10 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.119
242
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.882
242
9 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.821
242
1 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
242
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
242
50 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
242
130 of 138
VAN defence
VAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
254
34 of 138
success rate
0.350
254
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.336
254
107 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
254
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.383
254
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
254
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
254
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.336
254
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
254
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
254
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.245
254
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.539
254
34 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
254
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
254
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.905
254
43 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
254
106 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
254
91 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
254
104 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.100
254
120 of 138
UGA defence
UGA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.143
266
10 of 138
success rate
0.331
266
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.420
266
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.267
266
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.496
266
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
266
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
266
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.434
266
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.422
266
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
266
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.030
266
4 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
266
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
266
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
266
47 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
266
108 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
266
112 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
266
79 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
266
65 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs