Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TEX wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
TEX
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
22.4 (7th, offence 16th, defence 5th)
Returning production
72% (pass 85%, rush 126%, receiving 55%)
TENN
Games
4
Plays per game
71.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
17.7 (14th, offence 14th, defence 26th)
Returning production
35% (pass 7%, rush 48%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TEX
TENN
pass rate, all downs
47%76th
42%114th
pass rate, standard downs
39%94th
41%79th
pass rate, 1st down
42%71st
41%88th
no-huddle share
91%21st
83%40th
pass rate, passing downs
64%64th
45%134th
pass rate, red zone
43%48th
31%103rd
seconds per play (own drives)
28.578th
27.495th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TEX offence
TEX offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.110
290
90 of 138
success rate
0.455
290
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
290
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
290
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
290
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.790
290
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.280
290
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
290
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.562
290
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
290
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.362
290
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.818
290
109 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
290
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
290
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
290
54 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
290
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.130
290
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
290
37 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
290
111 of 138
TENN offence
TENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.224
287
52 of 138
success rate
0.456
287
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.208
287
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.311
287
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.485
287
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
287
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
287
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
287
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.361
287
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
287
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
287
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.540
287
16 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
287
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.308
287
5 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
287
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
287
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
287
41 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
287
67 of 138
TEX defence
TEX defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.056
260
29 of 138
success rate
0.350
260
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.094
260
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.074
260
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
260
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.791
260
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.033
260
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.331
260
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
260
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.397
260
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
260
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.554
260
37 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
260
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
260
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.190
260
10 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.206
260
124 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
260
126 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
260
84 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
260
85 of 138
TENN defence
TENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.086
257
22 of 138
success rate
0.358
257
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.064
257
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.081
257
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
257
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.026
257
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.144
257
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
257
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.095
257
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.406
257
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
257
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.031
257
99 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
257
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
257
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.227
257
11 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.218
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.148
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
257
97 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
257
73 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs