Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (TEX -4.5 to TEX -5.5).
Betting
Spread
TEX favouredMarket TEX −5.5Ours TEX −15.5
TENN favouredgap 10 toward TEX
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TEX away | -5.5 | 30.0 | -205 | 64.5% | 66% |
| TENN home | +5.5 | 24.5 | +170 | 35.5% | 36% |
| Total | 54.5 | |
TEX -4.5 when first seen, now TEX -5.5 · total 56.5 then, 54.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TEX away | -15.5 | 35.0 | 84.9% | -10.0 |
| TENN home | +15.5 | 19.5 | 15.1% | +10.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TEX away | -2.0 | 26.6 | 55.8% | +3.5 |
| TENN home | +2.0 | 24.6 | 44.2% | -3.5 |
| Total | 51.2 | | | -3.3 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TEX | TENN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +10.55th | +3.138th |
| Defence (cards) | +4.61st | +2.418th |
| Card team rating | +15.13rd | +5.535th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +22.47th | +17.714th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.18th | +0.911th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.78th | +1.411th |
| Card line | TENN +15.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 72% | 35% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Arch Manning TEX91 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.195
Completion63.8%
TD–INT7-3
Pass attempts, median game30
Pass yards, median game198
Rush yards, median game15
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.0
Faizon Brandon TENN80 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.267
Completion62.4%
TD–INT7-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game163
Rush yards, median game35
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TEX away | 1-3 | 25% | +3.3 | 1-3 | -9.8 |
| TENN home | 2-2 | 50% | +1.5 | 1-3 | -3.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Neyland Stadium · grass · 892 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 68°F, wind 6 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | TEX 6 days · TENN 6 days |
| Travel | TEX 889 miles, body clock 11:00am at kickoff, +366 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TEX | C. Coleman WR | probable Back | Mon, Sep 28 | Coleman is dealing with an back injury, and he is likely will suit up against Oklahoma on Saturday, October 10th. |
| TEX | D. McCutcheon WR | questionable Illness | Sat, Sep 26 | McCutcheon is ailing from an illness, and it is unclear if he will play against Oklahoma on Saturday, October 10th. |
| TEX | T. Goosby OG | questionable Knee | Sat, Sep 26 | Goosby is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Oklahoma on Saturday, October 10th. |
| TEX | N. Townsend TE | questionable Knee | Sat, Sep 26 | Townsend is hampered by a knee injury, and it is up in the air if he will suit up against Oklahoma on Saturday, October 10th. |
| TEX | H. Smothers RB | questionable Ankle | Sat, Sep 26 | Smothers is dealing with an Ankle injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Oklahoma on Saturday, October 10th. |
| TENN | W. Moe Jr. OG | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Moe Jr has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury. |
| TENN | J. Baker RB | questionable Hand | Sat, Sep 26 | Baker is nursing with a hand injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Gordon RB | questionable Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | Gordon is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | F. Brandon QB | questionable Upper Body | Sat, Sep 26 | Brandon is dealing with an upper body injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Harmon LB | out Knee | Mon, Sep 7 | Harmon has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to ACL tear. |