Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LSU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
TA&M
Games
4
Plays per game
74.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
8.9 (39th, offence 38th, defence 44th)
Returning production
73% (pass 97%, rush 68%, receiving 61%)
LSU
Games
4
Plays per game
79.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
21.3 (10th, offence 22nd, defence 4th)
Returning production
21% (pass 13%, rush 40%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TA&M
LSU
pass rate, all downs
51%49th
44%101st
pass rate, standard downs
42%60th
39%87th
pass rate, 1st down
38%104th
45%54th
no-huddle share
88%25th
86%28th
pass rate, passing downs
71%34th
56%105th
pass rate, red zone
35%85th
35%86th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.266th
26.4115th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TA&M offence
TA&M offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.043
298
111 of 138
success rate
0.443
298
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.074
298
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.094
298
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
298
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.820
298
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.022
298
119 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
298
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.405
298
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
298
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
298
34 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.216
298
57 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.166
298
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
298
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.360
298
43 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
298
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.077
298
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
298
130 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
298
116 of 138
LSU offence
LSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
318
48 of 138
success rate
0.478
318
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.282
318
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
318
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
318
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
318
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.345
318
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
318
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
318
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
318
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.398
318
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
318
79 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
318
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
318
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.061
318
61 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
318
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
318
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
318
124 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.400
318
128 of 138
TA&M defence
TA&M defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
226
68 of 138
success rate
0.385
226
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.307
226
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.079
226
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
226
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
226
36 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.218
226
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
226
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.851
226
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
226
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.281
226
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
226
59 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
226
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
226
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.053
226
54 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
226
87 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
226
100 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
226
71 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
226
45 of 138
LSU defence
LSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
241
4 of 138
success rate
0.303
241
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.184
241
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
241
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
241
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.727
241
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
241
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
241
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
241
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.354
241
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
241
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.200
241
9 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.240
241
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
241
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
241
104 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
241
131 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.154
241
130 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
241
98 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.300
241
110 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs