Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (ALA -13.5 to ALA -12.5).
Betting
Spread
SC favouredMarket ALA −12.5Ours ALA −6.7
ALA favouredgap 5.8 toward SC
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| SC away | +12.5 | 20.5 | +380 | 20.0% | 19% |
| ALA home | -12.5 | 33.0 | -500 | 80.0% | 82% |
| Total | 53.5 | |
ALA -13.5 when first seen, now ALA -12.5 · total 54.5 then, 53.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| SC away | +6.5 | 23.4 | 34.0% | -6.0 |
| ALA home | -6.5 | 30.1 | 66.0% | +6.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| SC away | +15.0 | 17.6 | 15.1% | +2.5 |
| ALA home | -15.0 | 32.8 | 84.9% | -2.5 |
| Total | 50.4 | | | -3.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | SC | ALA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.631st | +5.026th |
| Defence (cards) | +1.236th | +3.112th |
| Card team rating | +5.832nd | +8.118th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +7.548th | +23.06th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.533rd | +1.25th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.736th | +1.86th |
| Card line | ALA -6.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 69% | 26% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
LaNorris Sellers SC86 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.248
Completion62.1%
TD–INT6-4
Pass attempts, median game27
Pass yards, median game228
Rush yards, median game62
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.0
Keelon Russell ALA84 ▲2 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.577
Completion70.9%
TD–INT8-2
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game288
Rush yards, median game46
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| SC away | 1-3 | 25% | -3.9 | 3-1 | +7.5 |
| ALA home | 3-1 | 75% | +10.5 | 4-0 | +17.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Bryant-Denny Stadium · grass · 230 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 82°F, wind 3 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | SC 7 days · ALA 7 days |
| Travel | SC 380 miles, body clock 7:00pm at kickoff, +31 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| SC | J. Peak OG | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Peak is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, October 3th. |
| SC | L. Anderson III QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Anderson III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, October 3th. |
| SC | G. Brownlow-Dindy DL | questionable Upper Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Brownlow-Dindy is nursing with a upper body injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, October 3th. |
| SC | D. Stewart DL | out Back | Sun, Sep 20 | Stewart is dealing with a back injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| SC | J. Sellers WR | out Lower Body | Mon, Aug 17 | Sellers is fighting off a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| SC | J. Gibson WR | out Lower Body | Mon, Aug 17 | Gibson is batting with a lower body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| ALA | A. Walker WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Walker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Mississippi State on Saturday, October 3th. |