Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). VAN wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
NCSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 37th, defence 84th)
Returning production
60% (pass 93%, rush 101%, receiving 26%)
VAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.5 (48th, offence 46th, defence 45th)
Returning production
35% (pass 9%, rush 50%, receiving 50%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NCSU
VAN
pass rate, all downs
47%80th
50%54th
pass rate, standard downs
37%110th
43%57th
pass rate, 1st down
41%86th
49%31st
no-huddle share
44%87th
51%82nd
pass rate, passing downs
71%32nd
68%50th
pass rate, red zone
39%66th
39%67th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.971st
29.950th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NCSU offence
NCSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.221
281
54 of 138
success rate
0.488
281
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
281
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.215
281
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
281
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.037
281
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.257
281
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
281
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
281
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
281
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
281
41 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
281
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
281
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.679
281
25 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.093
281
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
281
95 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
281
64 of 138
VAN offence
VAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
272
101 of 138
success rate
0.415
272
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.180
272
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
272
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
272
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
272
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.202
272
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
272
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.301
272
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
272
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
272
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.050
272
81 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.150
272
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
272
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.120
272
116 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
272
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
272
49 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
272
84 of 138
NCSU defence
NCSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.120
243
93 of 138
success rate
0.399
243
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
243
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.067
243
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
243
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.967
243
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.270
243
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
243
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
243
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
243
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.264
243
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.821
243
66 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.190
243
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
243
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.591
243
84 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
243
54 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
243
17 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
243
118 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
243
58 of 138
VAN defence
VAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
254
34 of 138
success rate
0.350
254
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.336
254
107 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
254
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.383
254
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
254
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
254
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.336
254
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
254
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
254
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.245
254
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.539
254
34 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
254
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
254
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.905
254
43 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
254
106 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
254
91 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
254
104 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.100
254
120 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs