Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TEX wins about 98% of the time at a number like ours.
UTSA
Games
4
Plays per game
63.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-1.0 (73rd, offence 44th, defence 99th)
Returning production
67% (pass 93%, rush 36%, receiving 61%)
TEX
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
22.4 (7th, offence 16th, defence 5th)
Returning production
72% (pass 85%, rush 126%, receiving 55%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UTSA
TEX
pass rate, all downs
51%48th
47%76th
pass rate, standard downs
44%51st
39%94th
pass rate, 1st down
48%33rd
42%71st
no-huddle share
84%37th
91%21st
pass rate, passing downs
67%53rd
64%64th
pass rate, red zone
35%87th
43%48th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.397th
28.578th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UTSA offence
UTSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.268
253
35 of 138
success rate
0.474
253
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.111
253
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.248
253
25 of 138
rush: success rate
0.541
253
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.834
253
106 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.294
253
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
253
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
253
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.565
253
14 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
253
109 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
253
75 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
253
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
253
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.542
253
91 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
253
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.071
253
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
253
105 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
253
104 of 138
TEX offence
TEX offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.110
290
90 of 138
success rate
0.455
290
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
290
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
290
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
290
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.790
290
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.280
290
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
290
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.562
290
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
290
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.362
290
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.818
290
109 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
290
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
290
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
290
54 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
290
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.130
290
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
290
37 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
290
111 of 138
UTSA defence
UTSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.077
324
77 of 138
success rate
0.432
324
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.135
324
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
324
124 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
324
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.917
324
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.084
324
57 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
324
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.380
324
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
324
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.340
324
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.280
324
123 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.124
324
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
324
43 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.714
324
93 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
324
21 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
324
12 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
324
67 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
324
74 of 138
TEX defence
TEX defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.056
260
29 of 138
success rate
0.350
260
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.094
260
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.074
260
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
260
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.791
260
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.033
260
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.331
260
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
260
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.397
260
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
260
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.554
260
37 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
260
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
260
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.190
260
10 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.206
260
124 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
260
126 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
260
84 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
260
85 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs