Betting
Spread
UNM favouredMarket OU −21.5Ours OU −30.5
OU favouredgap 9 toward OU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| UNM away | +21.5 | 12.0 | +1100 | 8.0% | — |
| OU home | -21.5 | 33.5 | -2100 | 92.0% | — |
| Total | 45.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNM away | +30.5 | 7.5 | 2.9% | +9.0 |
| OU home | -30.5 | 38.0 | 97.1% | -9.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNM away | +22.5 | 11.5 | 4.6% | +1.0 |
| OU home | -22.5 | 34.2 | 95.4% | -1.0 |
| Total | 45.7 | | | +0.2 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UNM | OU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -5.3121st | +5.922nd |
| Defence (cards) | -0.366th | +3.55th |
| Card team rating | -5.6107th | +9.415th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +7.746th | +12.827th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.062nd | +0.718th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.355th | +1.022nd |
| Card line | OU -30.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 58% | 63% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Toa Fa'avae UNM70 ▲5 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.114
Completion47.7%
TD–INT1-0
Pass attempts, median game10
Pass yards, median game85
Rush yards, median game31
Games this season4
Team throws per game19.8
John Mateer OU87 ▼2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.241
Completion66.1%
TD–INT8-4
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game228
Rush yards, median game12
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UNM away | 4-0 | 100% | +16.5 | 2-2 | +1.8 |
| OU home | 1-3 | 25% | -8.0 | 1-3 | -8.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UNM | S. Miller WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Miller is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| UNM | T. Omeire WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Omeire is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| UNM | T. Walsh TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Walsh is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| UNM | M. Mingo WR | out Foot | Sat, Sep 26 | Mingo is nursing with a foot injury, and he is not projected to face against the Aggies on Saturday. |
| UNM | D. Bowers RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Bowers is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against New Mexico State on Saturday. |
| UNM | A. Williams WR | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Williams is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |
| UNM | J. Layne QB | out Elbow | Thu, Aug 27 | Layne is laid up with an elbow injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| UNM | J. Olsen TE | out Knee | Tue, Aug 11 | Olsen is battling with a knee ACL injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| OU | D. Stone DL | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Stone is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday. |
| OU | J. Carter WR | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Georgia on Saturday, September 26th. |
| OU | K. Lewis LB | questionable Knee | Sun, Sep 20 | Lewis is nursing an knee injury, and he is expected to kit up against Bulldogs on Saturday, September 26th. |
| OU | T. Harris WR | out Back | Tue, Sep 15 | Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return. |