Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIZ wins about 93% of the time at a number like ours.
TROY
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-8.8 (104th, offence 112th, defence 84th)
Returning production
35% (pass 103%, rush 136%, receiving 12%)
MIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
13.7 (25th, offence 40th, defence 14th)
Returning production
42% (pass -2%, rush 78%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TROY
MIZ
pass rate, all downs
50%59th
47%79th
pass rate, standard downs
40%82nd
39%90th
pass rate, 1st down
42%77th
34%116th
no-huddle share
96%12th
92%19th
pass rate, passing downs
69%43rd
63%70th
pass rate, red zone
58%6th
29%112th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.364th
27.398th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TROY offence
TROY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
292
116 of 138
success rate
0.380
292
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
292
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
292
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.395
292
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
292
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
292
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
292
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
292
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
292
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
292
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.673
292
123 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.238
292
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
292
121 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.202
292
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
292
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.113
292
138 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
292
20 of 138
MIZ offence
MIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.199
280
60 of 138
success rate
0.436
280
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
280
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.042
280
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
280
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.768
280
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.459
280
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
280
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.672
280
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
280
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.330
280
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.099
280
71 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
280
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
280
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
280
80 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
280
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.086
280
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.082
280
128 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
61.500
280
137 of 138
TROY defence
TROY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
242
69 of 138
success rate
0.372
242
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.318
242
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.035
242
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
242
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.023
242
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.075
242
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
242
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.504
242
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
242
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.235
242
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.344
242
19 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.259
242
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
242
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
242
50 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
98 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
242
113 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
242
62 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
242
21 of 138
MIZ defence
MIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.004
271
48 of 138
success rate
0.354
271
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.412
271
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
271
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.363
271
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
271
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.071
271
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
271
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
271
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
271
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
271
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.481
271
28 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
271
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
271
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.263
271
62 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.221
271
130 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
271
118 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.089
271
126 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.200
271
130 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs