Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AUB wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
FLA
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
18.5 (12th, offence 9th, defence 31st)
Returning production
69% (pass 94%, rush 89%, receiving 52%)
AUB
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.4 (31st, offence 53rd, defence 16th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 26%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
FLA
AUB
pass rate, all downs
38%126th
51%45th
pass rate, standard downs
30%131st
46%41st
pass rate, 1st down
30%127th
46%48th
no-huddle share
58%75th
96%11th
pass rate, passing downs
62%78th
63%68th
pass rate, red zone
23%124th
37%76th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.122nd
22.3138th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
FLA offence
FLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.413
285
7 of 138
success rate
0.516
285
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
285
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
285
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.480
285
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.133
285
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.599
285
8 of 138
pass: success rate
0.585
285
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.557
285
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
285
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.356
285
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.232
285
53 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
285
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
285
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.548
285
2 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.091
285
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
285
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
285
31 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
285
114 of 138
AUB offence
AUB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
285
84 of 138
success rate
0.428
285
84 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.268
285
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
285
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
285
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.989
285
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
285
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.401
285
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.583
285
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
285
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.378
285
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.278
285
45 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
285
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
285
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.120
285
58 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
285
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.098
285
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
285
66 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
285
38 of 138
FLA defence
FLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.036
289
36 of 138
success rate
0.405
289
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.146
289
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.063
289
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
289
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
289
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.116
289
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
289
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.305
289
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
289
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.314
289
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.046
289
102 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.109
289
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
289
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
289
115 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
289
120 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
289
96 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
289
127 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
289
93 of 138
AUB defence
AUB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.009
317
46 of 138
success rate
0.375
317
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.214
317
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
317
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
317
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.924
317
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.128
317
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
317
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
317
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
317
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
317
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.569
317
39 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
317
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.682
317
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
317
78 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
317
56 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
317
74 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
317
47 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
317
79 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs