Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UGA wins about 91% of the time at a number like ours.
UGA
Games
4
Plays per game
60.5
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
30.2 (1st, offence 1st, defence 1st)
Returning production
69% (pass 100%, rush 99%, receiving 35%)
ARK
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 59th, defence 90th)
Returning production
14% (pass 19%, rush 14%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UGA
ARK
pass rate, all downs
47%74th
58%8th
pass rate, standard downs
46%39th
47%27th
pass rate, 1st down
44%59th
51%20th
no-huddle share
46%85th
88%26th
pass rate, passing downs
52%122nd
77%11th
pass rate, red zone
44%40th
38%71st
seconds per play (own drives)
32.87th
28.776th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UGA offence
UGA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.425
242
4 of 138
success rate
0.533
242
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
242
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.328
242
9 of 138
rush: success rate
0.516
242
18 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
242
28 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.567
242
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.556
242
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.541
242
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.601
242
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.322
242
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.691
242
10 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.119
242
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.882
242
9 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.821
242
1 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
242
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
242
50 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
242
130 of 138
ARK offence
ARK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.049
306
109 of 138
success rate
0.422
306
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
306
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.075
306
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.386
306
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.566
306
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.181
306
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
306
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.460
306
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
306
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
306
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.579
306
127 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.181
306
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
306
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
306
93 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.180
306
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
306
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.088
306
135 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
306
57 of 138
UGA defence
UGA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.143
266
10 of 138
success rate
0.331
266
17 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.420
266
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.267
266
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.496
266
5 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
266
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
266
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.434
266
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.422
266
49 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.190
266
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.030
266
4 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
266
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
266
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
266
47 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
266
108 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
266
112 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
266
79 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
266
65 of 138
ARK defence
ARK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
229
106 of 138
success rate
0.432
229
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.110
229
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.193
229
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
229
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.906
229
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.160
229
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
229
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.363
229
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
229
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.188
229
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
229
117 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
229
24 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
229
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.143
229
135 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
229
41 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
229
63 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.048
229
36 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
229
31 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs