Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). VAN wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
DEL
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-10.7 (110th, offence 100th, defence 108th)
Returning production
85% (pass 96%, rush 88%, receiving 77%)
VAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.5 (48th, offence 46th, defence 45th)
Returning production
35% (pass 9%, rush 50%, receiving 50%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
DEL
VAN
pass rate, all downs
56%19th
50%54th
pass rate, standard downs
48%21st
43%57th
pass rate, 1st down
49%28th
49%31st
pass rate, red zone
44%42nd
39%67th
no-huddle share
72%59th
51%82nd
pass rate, passing downs
72%30th
68%50th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.0101st
29.950th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
DEL offence
DEL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
262
114 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
116 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
262
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.046
262
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
262
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.780
262
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.157
262
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
262
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.735
262
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
262
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.226
262
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.717
262
118 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
262
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
262
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
262
89 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
262
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.103
262
137 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
262
52 of 138
VAN offence
VAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
272
101 of 138
success rate
0.415
272
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.180
272
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
272
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
272
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
272
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.202
272
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
272
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.301
272
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
272
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
272
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.050
272
81 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.150
272
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
272
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.120
272
116 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
272
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
272
49 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
272
84 of 138
DEL defence
DEL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.388
294
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
294
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.060
294
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
294
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
294
39 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.274
294
104 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
294
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
294
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
294
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
294
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.903
294
79 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
294
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
294
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.800
294
34 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
104 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.109
294
89 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
294
103 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
294
77 of 138
VAN defence
VAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
254
34 of 138
success rate
0.350
254
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.336
254
107 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
254
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.383
254
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
254
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
254
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.336
254
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
254
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
254
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.245
254
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.539
254
34 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
254
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
254
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.905
254
43 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
254
106 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
254
91 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
254
104 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.100
254
120 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs