Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OSU wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
OSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
28.8 (2nd, offence 1st, defence 2nd)
Returning production
68% (pass 94%, rush 55%, receiving 50%)
TEX
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
22.4 (7th, offence 16th, defence 5th)
Returning production
72% (pass 85%, rush 126%, receiving 55%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
OSU
TEX
pass rate, all downs
51%44th
47%76th
pass rate, passing downs
79%7th
64%64th
no-huddle share
10%121st
91%21st
pass rate, standard downs
43%59th
39%94th
pass rate, 1st down
44%64th
42%71st
pass rate, red zone
39%64th
43%48th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.242nd
28.578th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
OSU offence
OSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.394
271
8 of 138
success rate
0.524
271
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.342
271
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.175
271
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
271
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.024
271
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.663
271
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.607
271
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.579
271
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.572
271
10 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
271
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.201
271
58 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
271
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
271
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
271
13 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
271
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.063
271
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
271
59 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
271
107 of 138
TEX offence
TEX offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.110
290
90 of 138
success rate
0.455
290
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
290
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
290
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
290
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.790
290
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.280
290
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
290
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.562
290
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
290
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.362
290
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.818
290
109 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
290
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
290
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
290
54 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
290
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.130
290
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
290
37 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
290
111 of 138
OSU defence
OSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.081
269
23 of 138
success rate
0.353
269
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.211
269
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.042
269
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
269
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.945
269
80 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.137
269
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.275
269
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.588
269
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
269
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
269
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.791
269
62 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
269
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
269
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.778
269
33 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.208
269
125 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
269
78 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.104
269
135 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.700
269
128 of 138
TEX defence
TEX defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.056
260
29 of 138
success rate
0.350
260
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.094
260
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.074
260
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
260
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.791
260
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.033
260
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.331
260
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
260
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.397
260
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
260
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.554
260
37 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
260
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
260
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.190
260
10 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.206
260
124 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
260
126 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
260
84 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
260
85 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs