Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIZ wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
MIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
13.7 (25th, offence 40th, defence 14th)
Returning production
42% (pass -2%, rush 78%, receiving 33%)
KU
Games
3
Plays per game
73.3
Drives per game
12.3
SP+
1.0 (66th, offence 70th, defence 67th)
Returning production
18% (pass -1%, rush 14%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MIZ
KU
pass rate, all downs
47%79th
44%100th
pass rate, standard downs
39%90th
38%98th
pass rate, 1st down
34%116th
37%108th
no-huddle share
92%19th
24%106th
pass rate, passing downs
63%70th
55%113th
pass rate, red zone
29%112th
30%106th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.398th
26.8103rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MIZ offence
MIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.199
280
60 of 138
success rate
0.436
280
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
280
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.042
280
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
280
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.768
280
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.459
280
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
280
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.672
280
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
280
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.330
280
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.099
280
71 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
280
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
280
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
280
80 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
280
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.086
280
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.082
280
128 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
61.500
280
137 of 138
KU offence
KU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.202
220
59 of 138
success rate
0.441
220
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.429
220
10 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.097
220
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
220
72 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
220
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.284
220
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
220
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.042
220
3 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
220
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
220
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.269
220
47 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
220
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
220
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
220
115 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
220
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.100
220
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.073
220
114 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
220
30 of 138
MIZ defence
MIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.004
271
48 of 138
success rate
0.354
271
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.412
271
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
271
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.363
271
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
271
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.071
271
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
271
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
271
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
271
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
271
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.481
271
28 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
271
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
271
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.263
271
62 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.221
271
130 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
271
118 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.089
271
126 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.200
271
130 of 138
KU defence
KU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.068
195
26 of 138
success rate
0.308
195
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
195
73 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.157
195
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.268
195
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.765
195
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.275
195
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.377
195
50 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
195
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.364
195
10 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
195
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.132
195
6 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
195
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
195
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.238
195
60 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
195
117 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.144
195
127 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
195
57 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.200
195
6 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs