MIZ at KU — DeskEdges

Game News Mismatches Team Personnel Betting Results

Betting

Spread

MIZ favoured

Market MIZ −4Ours MIZ −13.5

KU favoured

gap 9.5 toward MIZ

Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.

Vegas

Team	Spread	Points	Moneyline	Win%	Kalshi
MIZ away	-4.0	27.8	-192	63.1%	—
KU home	+4.0	23.8	+160	36.9%	—
Total	51.5

The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.

Our model — cards

Team	Spread	Points	Win%	vs book
MIZ away	-13.5	32.5	81.6%	-9.5
KU home	+13.5	19.0	18.4%	+9.5
Total	no total model

FEI — bcftoys.com

Team	Spread	Points	Win%	vs book
MIZ away	-3.5	29.3	59.2%	+0.5
KU home	+3.5	26.0	40.8%	-0.5
Total	55.2			+3.7

"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.

Team ratings

Points vs an average FBS team	MIZ	KU
Offence (cards)	+4.927th	-2.181st
Defence (cards)	+1.433rd	-0.264th
Card team rating	+6.327th	-2.380th
SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs)	+13.725th	+1.066th
FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs)	+0.534th	+0.155th
F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs)	+0.926th	+0.258th
Card line	KU +13.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field)
Returning production	42%	18%

Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.

Quarterbacks

Austin Simmons MIZ82 ▲1 overall · Junior

Points added per play0.442

Completion65.1%

TD–INT11-0

Pass attempts, median game24

Pass yards, median game272

Rush yards, median game2

Games this season4

Team throws per game30.5

Isaiah Marshall KU76 ▲2 overall · Sophomore

Points added per play0.271

Completion53.7%

TD–INT5-3

Pass attempts, median game30

Pass yards, median game235

Rush yards, median game49

Games this season3

Team throws per game29.7

The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.

Against the number

Team	ATS	Cover%	vs spread	O/U	vs total
MIZ away	1-3	25%	-5.6	2-2	+1.0
KU home	1-2	33%	-4.7	1-2	-0.8

Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.

Streak trends

No 4+ streak in any split for either side.

Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.

Venue, weather, rest and travel

Built when the game's bundle is (Memorial Stadium).

Who is out (reported)

No news read for this game yet.

Covers.com injury tags

Team	Player	Status	Since	Note
MIZ	G. Hoffman TE	out Undisclosed	Sun, Sep 20	Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
MIZ	J. Brady WR	out Undisclosed	Sun, Sep 20	Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
MIZ	C. Green OG	out Undisclosed	Sun, Sep 20	Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
MIZ	A. Hardy RB	out Leg	Fri, Sep 11	Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established.
KU	Y. Willis RB	out Foot	Mon, Sep 28	Willis has been out of the lineup with an foot injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
KU	C. Pickett WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sun, Sep 20	Pickett is dealing with an undisclsoed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Middle Tennessee on Saturday, October 3th.
KU	J. Butler TE	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 19	Butler exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Middle Tennessee on October 3rd.
KU	C. Ballard QB	out Shoulder	Fri, Sep 18	Ballard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Arizona State on Saturday.
KU	C. Bruhn TE	out Undisclosed	Fri, Sep 18	Bruhn is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Arizona State on Saturday.
KU	J. Dupree RB	probable Undisclosed	Thu, Sep 17	Dupree is nursing an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play against Arizona State on Saturday.
KU	J. Mason QB	out Undisclosed	Thu, Sep 17	Mason is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is unlikely to dress against Arizona State on Saturday.
KU	K. Amachree RB	out Undisclosed	Mon, Aug 31	Amachree is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
KU	J. Thurman RB	out Undisclosed	Tue, Aug 11	Thurman has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.