Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TEX wins about 95% of the time at a number like ours.
TXST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-1.8 (76th, offence 26th, defence 122nd)
Returning production
76% (pass 100%, rush 48%, receiving 79%)
TEX
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
22.4 (7th, offence 16th, defence 5th)
Returning production
72% (pass 85%, rush 126%, receiving 55%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TXST
TEX
pass rate, all downs
37%130th
47%76th
pass rate, standard downs
29%132nd
39%94th
no-huddle share
98%6th
91%21st
pass rate, 1st down
33%120th
42%71st
pass rate, passing downs
64%67th
64%64th
pass rate, red zone
28%118th
43%48th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.692nd
28.578th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TXST offence
TXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.305
291
20 of 138
success rate
0.495
291
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.324
291
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.153
291
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
291
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
291
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.660
291
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.559
291
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.852
291
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
291
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.530
291
2 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.268
291
48 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.139
291
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
291
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.214
291
112 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
291
29 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.079
291
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
291
19 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
291
50 of 138
TEX offence
TEX offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.110
290
90 of 138
success rate
0.455
290
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
290
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
290
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
290
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.790
290
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.280
290
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
290
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.562
290
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
290
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.362
290
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.818
290
109 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
290
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
290
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
290
54 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
290
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.130
290
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
290
37 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
290
111 of 138
TXST defence
TXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.148
321
99 of 138
success rate
0.461
321
123 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
321
68 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
321
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
321
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.848
321
40 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
321
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
321
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
321
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.519
321
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.343
321
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.502
321
30 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
321
123 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
321
23 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
321
123 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
321
66 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
321
39 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
321
111 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
321
46 of 138
TEX defence
TEX defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.056
260
29 of 138
success rate
0.350
260
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.094
260
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.074
260
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
260
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.791
260
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.033
260
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.331
260
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
260
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.397
260
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
260
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.554
260
37 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
260
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
260
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.190
260
10 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.206
260
124 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
260
126 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
260
84 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
260
85 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs