Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LSU wins about 91% of the time at a number like ours.
CLEM
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
4.9 (54th, offence 91st, defence 24th)
Returning production
41% (pass 14%, rush -38%, receiving 71%)
LSU
Games
4
Plays per game
79.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
21.3 (10th, offence 22nd, defence 4th)
Returning production
21% (pass 13%, rush 40%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CLEM
LSU
pass rate, all downs
47%73rd
44%101st
pass rate, standard downs
43%56th
39%87th
pass rate, 1st down
45%51st
45%54th
no-huddle share
96%13th
86%28th
pass rate, passing downs
55%111th
56%105th
pass rate, red zone
33%91st
35%86th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.2100th
26.4115th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CLEM offence
CLEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.027
260
125 of 138
success rate
0.342
260
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
260
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.093
260
82 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
260
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.020
260
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.001
260
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.328
260
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
260
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.405
260
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
260
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
260
114 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
260
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
260
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.095
260
117 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
260
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.146
260
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
260
39 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
71 of 138
LSU offence
LSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
318
48 of 138
success rate
0.478
318
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.282
318
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
318
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
318
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
318
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.345
318
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
318
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
318
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
318
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.398
318
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
318
79 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
318
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
318
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.061
318
61 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
318
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
318
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
318
124 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.400
318
128 of 138
CLEM defence
CLEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.017
288
58 of 138
success rate
0.410
288
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.188
288
54 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
288
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.492
288
132 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.887
288
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.055
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
288
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
288
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.430
288
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.368
288
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.459
288
135 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.129
288
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
288
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.346
288
16 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
288
67 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
288
22 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.087
288
125 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
288
111 of 138
LSU defence
LSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
241
4 of 138
success rate
0.303
241
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.184
241
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
241
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
241
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.727
241
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
241
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
241
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
241
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.354
241
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
241
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.200
241
9 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.240
241
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
241
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
241
104 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
241
131 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.154
241
130 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
241
98 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.300
241
110 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs