Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (UNLV -12.5 to UNLV -13.5).
Betting
Spread
UNLV favouredMarket UNLV −13.5Ours UNLV −9
AKR favouredgap 4.5 toward AKR
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| UNLV away | -13.5 | 33.0 | -550 | 81.2% | 82% |
| AKR home | +13.5 | 19.5 | +410 | 18.8% | 18% |
| Total | 52.5 | |
UNLV -12.5 when first seen, now UNLV -13.5 · total 50.5 then, 52.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNLV away | -9.0 | 30.7 | 72.1% | +4.5 |
| AKR home | +9.0 | 21.8 | 27.9% | -4.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNLV away | -16.0 | 31.9 | 86.2% | -2.5 |
| AKR home | +16.0 | 16.0 | 13.8% | +2.5 |
| Total | 47.9 | | | -4.6 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UNLV | AKR |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -1.474th | -6.3129th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.090th | -2.2126th |
| Card team rating | -2.481st | -8.5128th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -2.478th | -23.1132nd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.387th | -1.2137th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.380th | -1.8134th |
| Card line | AKR +9.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 15% | 92% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jackson Arnold UNLV78 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.265
Completion61.3%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game28
Pass yards, median game242
Rush yards, median game41
Games this season4
Team throws per game29.0
Brayden Roggow AKR68 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.035
Completion60.3%
TD–INT2-2
Pass attempts, median game16
Pass yards, median game93
Rush yards, median game-5
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UNLV away | 2-2 | 50% | -6.1 | 0-4 | -12.3 |
| AKR home | 2-2 | 50% | -3.0 | 2-2 | +2.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | InfoCision Stadium · turf · 1054 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 65°F, wind 10 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | UNLV 13 days · AKR 7 days |
| Travel | UNLV 1839 miles, body clock 9:00am at kickoff, -1131 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UNLV | K. McGee WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | McGee is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is to be seen if he will play against California on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| UNLV | D. Irvin Jr. WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Irvin Jr. is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is to be seen if he will play against California on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | C. Gee RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Gee is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | L. Sivon WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Sivon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | J. Riggins WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Riggins is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | C. Monteiro WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Monteiro is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AKR | P. Davis WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against C. Michigan on Saturday, October 3rd. |