Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (TULN -18.5 to TULN -17.5).
Betting
Spread
USM favouredMarket TULN −17.5Ours TULN −11.2
TULN favouredgap 6.3 toward USM
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| USM away | +17.5 | 17.5 | +675 | 12.4% | 11% |
| TULN home | -17.5 | 35.0 | -1050 | 87.6% | 90% |
| Total | 52.5 | |
TULN -18.5 when first seen, now TULN -17.5 · total 52.5 then, 52.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| USM away | +11.0 | 20.6 | 23.4% | -6.5 |
| TULN home | -11.0 | 31.9 | 76.6% | +6.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| USM away | +20.5 | 13.0 | 7.0% | +3.0 |
| TULN home | -20.5 | 33.6 | 93.0% | -3.0 |
| Total | 46.6 | | | -5.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | USM | TULN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -6.1128th | -3.193rd |
| Defence (cards) | -2.7134th | -1.194th |
| Card team rating | -8.8132nd | -4.292nd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -18.4128th | -7.397th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.8123rd | -0.275th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.3126th | -0.486th |
| Card line | TULN -11.2 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 90% | 21% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Landry Lyddy USM72 overall · Senior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game35.2
Kadin Semonza TULN76 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.023
Completion53.8%
TD–INT3-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game153
Rush yards, median game-14
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| USM away | 2-2 | 50% | +3.3 | 2-2 | +0.3 |
| TULN home | 1-3 | 25% | -3.8 | 2-2 | -8.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Yulman Stadium · turf |
| Forecast at kickoff | 83°F, wind 3 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | USM 7 days · TULN 7 days |
| Travel | USM 106 miles, body clock 6:00pm at kickoff, -212 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| USM | R. Briggs RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Briggs is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Troy on Tuesday, October 6th. |
| USM | E. Hampton QB | out Hand | Fri, Sep 25 | Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established. |
| USM | J. Himes WR | out Foot | Fri, Sep 25 | Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| USM | G. Page WR | out Elbow | Tue, Sep 22 | Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| TULN | J. McClure RB | out Foot | Sun, Sep 27 | McClure is managing a foot injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |
| TULN | Z. Lewis Jr. WR | questionable Leg | Sun, Sep 27 | Lewis Jr. is bothered by a lef injury, and his status is unknown against Army on Saturday, October 10th. |