Line has moved +2.0 since we first saw it (M-OH -4.5 to M-OH -2.5).
Betting
Spread
CONN favouredMarket M-OH −2.5Ours M-OH −3.7
M-OH favouredgap 1.2 toward M-OH
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| CONN away | +2.5 | 25.0 | +114 | 44.9% | 44% |
| M-OH home | -2.5 | 27.5 | -135 | 55.1% | 56% |
| Total | 52.5 | |
M-OH -4.5 when first seen, now M-OH -2.5 · total 51.5 then, 52.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| CONN away | +3.5 | 24.4 | 40.1% | +1.0 |
| M-OH home | -3.5 | 28.1 | 59.9% | -1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| CONN away | +2.5 | 26.1 | 42.7% | 0.0 |
| M-OH home | -2.5 | 28.7 | 57.3% | 0.0 |
| Total | 54.8 | | | +2.3 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | CONN | M-OH |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -4.6110th | -4.7112th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.3102nd | -0.676th |
| Card team rating | -5.9108th | -5.2102nd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -3.785th | -4.388th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.597th | -0.493rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.592nd | -0.589th |
| Card line | M-OH -3.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 2% | 14% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Kalieb Osborne CONN74 ▲3 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.438
Completion61.4%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game215
Rush yards, median game58
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
David McComb M-OH73 ▲1 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.656
Completion63.1%
TD–INT7-1
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game276
Rush yards, median game16
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| CONN away | 2-2 | 50% | +9.8 | 2-2 | +4.3 |
| M-OH home | 3-1 | 75% | -2.5 | 3-1 | +9.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Yager Stadium · turf · 795 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 72°F, wind 6 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | CONN 6 days · M-OH 7 days |
| Travel | CONN 653 miles, body clock 3:30pm at kickoff, +773 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| CONN | J. Merklinger QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Merklinger is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face So. Miss on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | D. McComb QB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | McComb is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Connecticut on Saturday. |
| M-OH | C. Ross TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Ross is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against the Connecticut on Saturday. |
| M-OH | C. Castner WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Castner is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to be active against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | N. Butbul TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Butbul is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | T. Zvonar TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Zvonar is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | B. Boeing TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Boeing is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | D. Hyatt WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Hyatt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | E. Karner TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Karner is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| M-OH | K. Reynolds WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Reynolds has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| M-OH | T. Gotkowski QB | out Undisclosed | Mon, Aug 24 | Gotkowski is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |