Line has moved +4.0 since we first saw it (TXST -4.5 to TXST -8.5).
Betting
Spread
TXST favouredMarket TXST −8.5Ours TXST −8.7
SDSU favouredgap 0.2 toward TXST
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TXST away | -8.5 | 33.0 | -325 | 73.4% | 74% |
| SDSU home | +8.5 | 24.5 | +260 | 26.7% | 26% |
| Total | 57.5 | |
TXST -4.5 when first seen, now TXST -8.5 · total 60.5 then, 57.5 now. Over -112 / under -108 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TXST away | -8.5 | 33.1 | 70.6% | 0.0 |
| SDSU home | +8.5 | 24.4 | 29.4% | 0.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TXST away | +1.5 | 25.2 | 45.5% | +10.0 |
| SDSU home | -1.5 | 26.8 | 54.5% | -10.0 |
| Total | 52.0 | | | -5.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TXST | SDSU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +3.635th | -3.091st |
| Defence (cards) | -1.198th | -0.677th |
| Card team rating | +2.546th | -3.588th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -1.876th | -7.8100th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.281st | -0.385th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.276th | -0.594th |
| Card line | SDSU +8.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 76% | 99% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Brad Jackson TXST86 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.523
Completion68.4%
TD–INT10-3
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game218
Rush yards, median game29
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.0
Jayden Denegal SDSU74 ▼1 overall · Senior
Points added per play-0.064
Completion56.1%
TD–INT5-5
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game172
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TXST away | 2-2 | 50% | +1.1 | 3-1 | +6.0 |
| SDSU home | 0-4 | 0% | -12.1 | 2-2 | -1.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| SDSU | all | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| SDSU | all | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
| SDSU | home | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| SDSU | division | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| SDSU | home division | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| SDSU | home division | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the over — SDSU has gone under 6 straight as division.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Snapdragon Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TXST | C. Snodgrass TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday. |
| TXST | J. Sample LB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| TXST | K. Evans WR | questionable Shoulder | Sun, Sep 27 | vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| SDSU | D. Brown WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Boise State |
| SDSU | J. Bostick WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bostick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is expected to play Saturday against Texas State |
| SDSU | P. Guiltinan TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | J. Ellis TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | R. Wolfer TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | L. Sutton RB | questionable Ankle | Tue, Sep 29 | Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |
| SDSU | J. Kinnard RB | questionable Knee | Tue, Sep 29 | Kinnard is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday. |