Betting
Spread
BOIS favouredMarket ORE −24.5Ours ORE −8
ORE favouredgap 16.5 toward BOIS
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| BOIS away | +24.5 | 14.5 | +1300 | 6.9% | — |
| ORE home | -24.5 | 39.0 | -2800 | 93.1% | — |
| Total | 53.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BOIS away | +8.0 | 22.7 | 29.9% | -16.5 |
| ORE home | -8.0 | 30.8 | 70.1% | +16.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BOIS away | +27.0 | 12.7 | 1.0% | +2.5 |
| ORE home | -27.0 | 39.9 | 99.0% | -2.5 |
| Total | 52.5 | | | -1.0 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BOIS | ORE |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.928th | +6.020th |
| Defence (cards) | +1.237th | +3.111th |
| Card team rating | +6.130th | +9.016th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +7.647th | +21.68th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.527th | +1.09th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.734th | +1.69th |
| Card line | ORE -8.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 66% | 75% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Maddux Madsen BOIS87 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.433
Completion63.1%
TD–INT9-0
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game206
Rush yards, median game15
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
Dylan Raiola ORE82 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.889
Completion83.3%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game18
Pass yards, median game207
Rush yards, median game-5
Games this season2
Team throws per game36.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BOIS away | 3-1 | 75% | +7.0 | 3-1 | 0.0 |
| ORE home | 2-2 | 50% | -3.5 | 4-0 | +10.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Autzen Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BOIS | C. Bates WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Utah St. on Saturday. |
| BOIS | S. Gaines RB | questionable Upper Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Gaines is dealing with a upper body injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Utah St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| ORE | D. Moore QB | questionable Concussion | Wed, Sep 30 | Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. Lott WR | questionable Hand | Sun, Sep 27 | Lott is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | I. Hooks WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Hooks is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. Johnson TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | D. Gresham WR | questionable Neck | Sun, Sep 27 | Gresham is hampered by a neck injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | S. Price RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Price is nursing due to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | K. Harrison TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Harrison is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 10th. |
| ORE | J. McClellan WR | out Foot | Mon, Sep 21 | McClellan is sidelined due to a foot injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |