FLA at FSU — DeskEdges

Game News Mismatches Team Personnel Betting

Betting

Spread

FLA favoured

Market FLA −4.5Ours FLA −1.6

FSU favoured

gap 2.9 toward FSU

Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.

Vegas

Team	Spread	Points	Moneyline	Win%	Kalshi
FLA away	-4.5	28.5	-205	64.5%	—
FSU home	+4.5	24.0	+170	35.5%	—
Total	52.5

The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.

Our model — cards

Team	Spread	Points	Win%	vs book
FLA away	-1.5	27.0	55.4%	+3.0
FSU home	+1.5	25.5	44.6%	-3.0
Total	no total model

FEI — bcftoys.com

Nothing to show for this game.

"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.

Team ratings

Points vs an average FBS team	FLA	FSU
Offence (cards)	+1.350th	+0.162nd
Defence (cards)	+2.714th	+1.726th
Card team rating	+4.038th	+1.848th
SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs)	+18.512th	+5.753rd
FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs)	+0.816th	+0.438th
F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs)	+1.314th	+0.547th
Card line	FSU +1.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field)
Returning production	69%	40%

Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Philo FLA77 ▲2 overall · Sophomore

Points added per play0.563

Completion72.4%

TD–INT7-2

Pass attempts, median game22

Pass yards, median game223

Rush yards, median game17

Games this season4

Team throws per game26.0

Ashton Daniels FSU75 ▼2 overall · Senior

Points added per play0.328

Completion59.8%

TD–INT6-5

Pass attempts, median game25

Pass yards, median game213

Rush yards, median game32

Games this season4

Team throws per game24.8

The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.

Against the number

Team	ATS	Cover%	vs spread	O/U	vs total
FLA away	3-1	75%	+9.6	3-1	+16.8
FSU home	1-2-1	33%	-6.9	1-3	+2.5

Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.

Streak trends

Team	Split	Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games
FLA	all	covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases)
FLA	all	won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases)
FLA	all	gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases)
FLA	favourite	gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases)
FLA	away	gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases)
FSU	home	gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases)
FSU	underdog	lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases)
FSU	home underdog	gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases)

Streak picker (total): bets the over — FSU has gone under 6 straight as home underdog.

Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.

Venue, weather, rest and travel

Built when the game's bundle is (Doak Campbell Stadium).

Who is out (reported)

No news read for this game yet.

Covers.com injury tags

Team	Player	Status	Since	Note
FLA	E. Singleton Jr. WR	probable Ankle	Mon, Sep 28	Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday.
FLA	B. Stockton WR	questionable Back	Mon, Sep 28	Stockton is hampered by back injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on Saturday.
FLA	V. Brown III WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 26	Brown III exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on October 3rd.
FLA	D. Groce WR	out Undisclosed	Mon, Sep 7	Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return.
FLA	K. Jimenez RB	out Undisclosed	Sat, Sep 5	Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
FSU	D. Carter WR	out Back	Thu, Oct 1	Carter is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Cavaliers on Saturday.
FSU	S. Singleton Jr. RB	out Lower Body	Mon, Sep 21	Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
FSU	G. Markey RB	questionable Undisclosed	Sun, Sep 20	Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Central Arkansas on Saturday, September 26th.
FSU	T. Gelsey WR	questionable Undisclosed	Sun, Sep 20	Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Central Arkansas on Saturday, September 26th.