Line has moved +0.5 since we first saw it (TENN -7.5 to TENN -7).
Betting
Spread
AUB favouredMarket TENN −7Ours AUB −5.1
TENN favouredgap 12.1 toward AUB
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| AUB away | +7.0 | 23.3 | +230 | 29.0% | 30% |
| TENN home | -7.0 | 30.3 | -285 | 71.0% | 72% |
| Total | 53.5 | |
TENN -7.5 when first seen, now TENN -7 · total 56.5 then, 53.5 now. Over -115 / under -105 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| AUB away | -5.0 | 29.3 | 63.4% | -12.0 |
| TENN home | +5.0 | 24.2 | 36.6% | +12.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| AUB away | +9.5 | 20.1 | 25.5% | +2.5 |
| TENN home | -9.5 | 29.9 | 74.5% | -2.5 |
| Total | 50.0 | | | -3.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | AUB | TENN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +7.514th | +3.138th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.024th | +2.418th |
| Card team rating | +9.513th | +5.535th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +11.431st | +17.714th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.528th | +0.911th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.829th | +1.411th |
| Card line | TENN +5.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 14% | 35% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Byrum Brown AUB89 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.221
Completion64.8%
TD–INT6-5
Pass attempts, median game32
Pass yards, median game241
Rush yards, median game61
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.5
Faizon Brandon TENN80 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.267
Completion62.4%
TD–INT7-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game163
Rush yards, median game35
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| AUB away | 1-3 | 25% | -2.4 | 1-3 | -5.0 |
| TENN home | 2-2 | 50% | +1.5 | 1-3 | -3.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| AUB | day | failed to cover 5 straight — next game covered 53.4% of the time (2811 cases) |
| AUB | division | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| TENN | home favourite | failed to cover 6 straight — next game covered 56.2% of the time (1276 cases) |
| TENN | favourite of 7+ | won 13 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
Streak picker (spread): bets TENN — TENN has failed to cover 6 straight as home favourite.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Neyland Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Wendell Moe Jr. TENN — out (ESPN, 2026-10-01)
All-SEC offensive guard expected to miss rest of season with lower-body injury.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| AUB | H. Herring TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th. |
| AUB | E. Smith WR | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Smith is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and the officials have yet to provide a return date. |
| AUB | N. Davenport RB | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return. |
| TENN | W. Moe Jr. OG | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Moe Jr has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury. |
| TENN | J. Baker RB | questionable Hand | Sat, Sep 26 | Baker is nursing with a hand injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Gordon RB | questionable Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | Gordon is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | F. Brandon QB | questionable Upper Body | Sat, Sep 26 | Brandon is dealing with an upper body injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Harmon LB | out Knee | Mon, Sep 7 | Harmon has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to ACL tear. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.