Line has moved +2.5 since we first saw it (FLA -3 to FLA -5.5).
Betting
Spread
FLA favouredMarket FLA −5.5Ours MIZ −6.7
MIZ favouredgap 12.2 toward MIZ
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| FLA away | -5.5 | 31.5 | -218 | 65.8% | 67% |
| MIZ home | +5.5 | 26.0 | +180 | 34.3% | 34% |
| Total | 57.5 | |
FLA -3 when first seen, now FLA -5.5 · total 54.5 then, 57.5 now. Over -112 / under -108 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| FLA away | +6.5 | 25.4 | 34.0% | +12.0 |
| MIZ home | -6.5 | 32.1 | 66.0% | -12.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| FLA away | -3.0 | 28.1 | 58.6% | +2.5 |
| MIZ home | +3.0 | 24.9 | 41.4% | -2.5 |
| Total | 53.0 | | | -4.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | FLA | MIZ |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +1.350th | +4.927th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.714th | +1.433rd |
| Card team rating | +4.038th | +6.327th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +18.512th | +13.725th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.816th | +0.534th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.314th | +0.926th |
| Card line | MIZ -6.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 69% | 42% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Philo FLA77 ▲2 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.563
Completion72.4%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game22
Pass yards, median game223
Rush yards, median game17
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.0
Austin Simmons MIZ82 ▲1 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.442
Completion65.1%
TD–INT11-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game272
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game30.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| FLA away | 3-1 | 75% | +9.6 | 3-1 | +16.8 |
| MIZ home | 1-3 | 25% | -5.6 | 2-2 | +1.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| FLA | all | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| FLA | all | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| FLA | all | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| FLA | favourite | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| FLA | away | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| FLA | away division | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| MIZ | underdog | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| MIZ | underdog | lost 6 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| MIZ | home division | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| MIZ | home underdog | gone over 5 straight — next game went over 46.2% of the time (2484 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Memorial Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Vernell Brown III FLA — returning (Jon Sumrall (Florida coach), 2026-09-28)
Leading receiver's injury described as 'nothing serious' ahead of Missouri game; expected to play.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| FLA | E. Singleton Jr. WR | probable Ankle | Mon, Sep 28 | Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday. |
| FLA | B. Stockton WR | questionable Back | Mon, Sep 28 | Stockton is hampered by back injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on Saturday. |
| FLA | V. Brown III WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Brown III exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on October 3rd. |
| FLA | D. Groce WR | out Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 7 | Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |
| FLA | K. Jimenez RB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| MIZ | G. Hoffman TE | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| MIZ | J. Brady WR | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| MIZ | C. Green OG | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |
| MIZ | A. Hardy RB | out Leg | Fri, Sep 11 | Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.