Line has moved +2.5 since we first saw it (UGA -14 to UGA -11.5).
Betting
Spread
OU favouredMarket UGA −11.5Ours UGA −8.3
UGA favouredgap 3.2 toward OU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| OU away | +11.5 | 16.0 | +390 | 19.6% | 18% |
| UGA home | -11.5 | 27.5 | -520 | 80.4% | 83% |
| Total | 43.5 | |
UGA -14 when first seen, now UGA -11.5 · total 43.5 then, 43.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| OU away | +8.5 | 17.6 | 29.6% | -3.0 |
| UGA home | -8.5 | 25.9 | 70.4% | +3.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| OU away | +16.0 | 15.3 | 13.7% | +4.5 |
| UGA home | -16.0 | 31.3 | 86.3% | -4.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | | | +3.0 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | OU | UGA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +5.922nd | +9.67th |
| Defence (cards) | +3.55th | +2.913th |
| Card team rating | +9.415th | +12.58th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +12.827th | +30.21st |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.718th | +1.61st |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.022nd | +2.41st |
| Card line | UGA -8.3 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 63% | 69% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
John Mateer OU87 ▼2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.241
Completion66.1%
TD–INT8-4
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game228
Rush yards, median game12
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
Gunner Stockton UGA91 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.590
Completion74.3%
TD–INT10-1
Pass attempts, median game16
Pass yards, median game187
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| OU away | 1-3 | 25% | -8.0 | 1-3 | -8.0 |
| UGA home | 4-0 | 100% | +10.0 | 4-0 | +15.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Sanford Stadium · grass · 611 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 82°F, wind 9 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | OU 6 days · UGA 7 days |
| Travel | OU 804 miles, body clock 2:30pm at kickoff, -554 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
David Stone OU — returning (HeadlineNews, 2026-09-26)
Star defensive tackle was in the starting lineup after suffering a knee injury in practice earlier in the week.
Kip Lewis OU — returning (HeadlineNews, 2026-09-26)
Returned from injuries for Saturday's game.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| OU | D. Stone DL | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Stone is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday. |
| OU | J. Carter WR | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Georgia on Saturday, September 26th. |
| OU | K. Lewis LB | questionable Knee | Sun, Sep 20 | Lewis is nursing an knee injury, and he is expected to kit up against Bulldogs on Saturday, September 26th. |
| OU | T. Harris WR | out Back | Tue, Sep 15 | Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| UGA | I. Canion WR | questionable Leg | Thu, Oct 1 | Conan is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face Vanderbilt on Saturday. |
| UGA | N. Frazier RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Frazier is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Vanderbilt on Saturday. |
| UGA | D. Dowdell RB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Dowdell has been sidelined due an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.