Betting
Spread
TENN favouredMarket TENN −12.5Ours TENN −11.5
GT favouredgap 1 toward GT
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TENN away | -12.5 | 34.0 | -485 | 79.6% | — |
| GT home | +12.5 | 21.5 | +370 | 20.4% | — |
| Total | 55.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TENN away | -11.5 | 33.5 | 77.9% | +1.0 |
| GT home | +11.5 | 22.0 | 22.1% | -1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TENN away | -11.0 | 33.3 | 76.7% | +1.5 |
| GT home | +11.0 | 22.5 | 23.3% | -1.5 |
| Total | 55.7 | | | +0.2 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TENN | GT |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +3.138th | -1.678th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.418th | -0.470th |
| Card team rating | +5.535th | -2.076th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +17.714th | -0.169th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.911th | -0.067th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.411th | -0.068th |
| Card line | GT +11.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 35% | 13% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Faizon Brandon TENN80 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.267
Completion62.4%
TD–INT7-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game163
Rush yards, median game35
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
Alberto Mendoza GT78 ▲2 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.249
Completion68.3%
TD–INT6-3
Pass attempts, median game31
Pass yards, median game243
Rush yards, median game-11
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TENN away | 2-2 | 50% | +1.5 | 1-3 | -3.8 |
| GT home | 0-4 | 0% | -7.9 | 2-2 | -1.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Bobby Dodd Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TENN | W. Moe Jr. OG | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Moe Jr has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury. |
| TENN | J. Baker RB | questionable Hand | Sat, Sep 26 | Baker is nursing with a hand injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Gordon RB | questionable Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | Gordon is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Auburn on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | F. Brandon QB | questionable Upper Body | Sat, Sep 26 | Brandon is dealing with an upper body injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tigers on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TENN | J. Harmon LB | out Knee | Mon, Sep 7 | Harmon has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to ACL tear. |
| GT | S. Jones DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jones is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | A. Hoffler DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Hoffler is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | E. Mackenny OG | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | MacKenny is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | S. Riley S | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Riley has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | J. Walker DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Walker is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | C. Jean-Noel WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jean-Noel has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | M. Hosley RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Richardson is battling with a Undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | K. Roche Jr. TE | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Roche is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wake Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | D. Collins WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Plummer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Mercer on Saturday, September 19th. |