Data Viewer: metaculus-predictions

metaculus_latest (100 total rows, showing 50 of 100)

question idtitleslugcategoryprobabilityforecastersclose timeresolve timefetched at
111Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?total-solar-eclipse-in-2522Environment & Climate0.963112522-06-23T23:00:00Z2522-06-26T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
349Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?spacex-lands-people-on-mars-by-2030Technology0.0044042029-12-31T23:19:37Z2030-01-02T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
353Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?someone-born-before-2001-lives-to-150Social Sciences0.3016312151-01-01T01:00:00Z2151-01-03T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
372Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital ...brain-emulation-produces-first-human-aiNatural Sciences0.014352060-01-01T00:00:00Z2060-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
375Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leav...major-state-exits-eu-before-2027Geopolitics0.009742026-12-31T23:59:00Z2027-01-31T23:59:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
384Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?humanmachine-intelligence-parity-by-2040Technology0.9629752035-01-01T00:00:00Z2040-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
491Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?china-co2-emissions-reduction-by-60-by-2030Environment & Climate0.692862030-01-01T08:00:00Z2030-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
492Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 20...nuclear-power-renounces-nukes-by-2035Geopolitics0.012942034-12-31T08:00:00Z2035-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
578Will humans go extinct before 2100?human-extinction-by-2100Technology0.0216982100-01-02T00:00:00Z2100-01-02T00:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
585Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?2-c-global-warming-by-2100Environment & Climate0.985552100-01-02T00:00:00Z2100-06-14T23:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
594Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?increased-off-world-population-in-2050Economy & Business0.964642050-12-31T17:00:00Z2051-01-01T17:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
610Will a world war begin before 2151?world-war-by-2151Geopolitics0.604172161-01-01T00:00:00Z2161-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
614Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?vegan-country-by-2100Environment & Climate0.213442100-01-01T00:00:00Z2100-01-01T00:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
665Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?kessler-syndrome-by-2050Economy & Business0.154542050-01-01T00:00:00Z2050-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
686Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?human-spacecraft-in-venus-atmosphere-by-2030Technology0.193982029-12-31T08:00:00Z2030-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
737Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?spacex-mars-mission-by-2030Economy & Business0.1028232029-12-31T10:32:00Z2030-01-01T10:35:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
797Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?puerto-rico-becomes-us-state-by-2035Politics0.203842035-01-01T08:00:00Z2035-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
808Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if ...life-discovered-on-europa-before-2045Economy & Business0.252932045-01-01T08:00:00Z2045-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
824Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?first-fusion-reactor-in-chinaNatural Sciences0.253362050-01-01T08:00:00Z2050-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
841Will Metaculus exist in 2030?metaculus-existence-in-2030Metaculus0.975382030-01-01T00:00:00Z2030-01-01T00:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
917Will a space elevator successfully be built on Earth before 2100?space-elevator-on-earth-by-2100Economy & Business0.093342100-01-01T08:00:00Z2101-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
980Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035?tesla-largest-car-company-by-2035Economy & Business0.024872035-12-31T23:00:00Z2035-12-31T23:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1002Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?progress-in-human-longevity-by-2100Health & Pandemics0.974442099-12-31T23:00:00Z2099-12-31T23:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1394Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?will-ai-progress-surprise-metaculusTechnology0.755382035-01-01T16:01:00Z2040-12-30T16:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1432Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?sustainable-off-earth-human-colony-by-2100Economy & Business0.406422099-12-31T23:00:00Z2099-12-31T23:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1476Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?nasa-lands-people-on-mars-before-2030Technology0.003682029-12-31T22:00:00Z2029-12-31T23:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1493By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of...global-population-decline-10-by-21000.404202100-01-01T00:00:00Z2100-01-02T23:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1494Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nucl...gc-to-be-caused-by-nuclear-war-if-it-occursNuclear Technology & Risks0.312862100-01-01T23:59:00Z2100-01-01T23:59:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1495Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an a...gc-to-be-caused-by-ai-if-it-occursComputing and Math0.304602100-01-01T23:00:00Z2100-01-31T23:59:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1500Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to eith...gc-caused-by-climate-meddling-if-it-occursEnvironment & Climate0.102932100-01-01T23:59:00Z2100-06-01T22:59:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1579Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?chinese-gdp-greater-than-us-by-2041Economy & Business0.634252042-12-31T23:59:00Z2043-01-02T00:59:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1598Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?elon-musk-personally-goes-to-marsEconomy & Business0.044432095-01-01T17:00:00Z2095-01-01T17:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1626Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year ...before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-b...Natural Sciences0.022832035-01-01T00:00:00Z2050-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1629Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050Natural Sciences0.025872049-12-31T23:00:00Z2050-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1638Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?alex-jones-holds-us-office-by-2030Elections0.013092030-01-01T00:00:00Z2030-01-01T00:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1646Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?human-condition-to-change-before-2100Technology0.962832100-01-01T00:00:00Z2100-01-02T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
1651Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2...breakthrough-in-protein-prediction-by-2031Natural Sciences0.992982031-01-01T00:00:00Z2031-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
2513Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will...ai-catastrophe-to-cause-near-extinction0.303252099-12-31T23:00:00Z2101-06-15T22:59:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
2534Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?world-war-three-before-2050Geopolitics0.2533212050-01-01T00:00:00Z2050-01-01T00:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
3458Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?impactful-longevity-research-by-2030Social Sciences0.532872030-01-01T07:59:00Z2030-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
3519One Million Martian Residents by 2075?one-million-martians-by-2075Technology0.013702075-01-01T04:59:00Z2075-01-01T04:59:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
3620Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?china-recognizes-taiwans-sovereignty-by-2050Geopolitics0.052912049-12-31T08:00:00Z2050-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
3648Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?longbets-turing-test-2029Computing and Math0.855282029-12-31T08:00:00Z2030-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
3834Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be disc...extraterrestrial-life-discovered-by-2050Natural Sciences0.2319532049-12-31T22:00:00Z2049-12-31T22:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
4118Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human...asi-transition-beneficial-for-humanityComputing and Math0.504662300-01-01T06:00:00Z2300-01-01T08:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
4779Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050Geopolitics0.335222050-01-01T00:00:00Z2050-01-01T00:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
4922Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?us-china-war-by-2027Geopolitics0.013052026-12-30T13:00:00Z2027-01-30T13:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
5048Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?uk-rejoins-eu-before-2030Politics0.012902029-12-31T23:00:00Z2029-12-31T23:00:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
5253Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030Geopolitics0.056782030-01-01T17:00:00Z2030-01-01T17:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM
5255Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?confirmation-of-life-on-venus-by-2035Economy & Business0.013412034-12-31T23:00:00Z2034-12-31T23:01:00ZApr 1 6:00 AM