Data Viewer: manifold-predictions

manifold_latest (5,860 total rows, showing 50 of 5,860)

market idquestionslugprobabilityvolumevolume 24hunique bettorsoutcome typeclose timefetched at
SU85C8INt9Daily Coin Flip - Day 36daily-coin-flip-day-360.501038.521151.2313BINARY2026-03-24T06:37:00.000ZMar 24 1:46 AM
nzls8SIClIDaily Coinflipdaily-coinflip-guRR6Es5dy0.51423.50104.6012BINARY2026-03-24T03:59:00.000ZMar 24 1:46 AM
2ZqQqn0cgqWill Democrats win the Mar A Lago(Trump Residence) District- Florida State House...will-democrats-win-the-mar-a-lagotr0.212499.691551.2725BINARY2026-03-24T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Au9C6AOg9ZIs/Was Benjamin Netanyahu dead or grievously injured as of March 12-14, 2026iswas-benjamin-netanyahu-dead-or-gr0.0232788.84205.0856BINARY2026-04-01T04:15:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
sZA6zz2pqNWill someone get into trouble at the field trip tomorrow?will-someone-get-in-major-trouble-a0.54999.28999.2814BINARY2026-03-24T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
LlNCONSLPdWill JD Vance’s next tweet contain the letter J?will-jd-vances-next-tweet-contain-t0.12743.58212.3215BINARY2026-04-21T15:46:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Lz0hnO2lysU.S. PHEV sales to exceed 23,500 units in Feb 2026?us-phev-sales-to-exceed-23500-units0.0122864.065211.3817BINARY2026-04-10T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
c5tCCyLI0QWill I post 2 articles on my Substack between 16Mar - 23Marwill-i-post-2-articles-on-my-substa0.078246.695458.7725BINARY2026-03-23T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
znuzCy0AEtItaly judicial reform: Will turnout at the March 2026 referendum exceed 50%?italy-judicial-reform-will-turnout0.25937.79024BINARY2026-03-22T02:00:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
ARnqln6pRPWill Y Combinator fund 3 or more quantum-related startups in its next public bat...will-y-combinator-fund-3-or-more-qu0.064685.37022BINARY2026-03-20T21:49:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
p9zQh8NtluWill Elon Musk visit China before March 21 2026?will-elon-musk-visit-china-before-m0.011669.55033BINARY2026-03-20T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
6Q26QuOOpPWill Manifest be the weekend of Jun 12-14?will-manifest-be-the-weekend-of-jun0.996254.46010BINARY2026-06-14T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
uOyysQtIyRWill Jake Paul run for and win any political office before EOY 2028?will-jake-paul-run-for-and-win-any0.22251.14010BINARY2028-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
BwRxPkHErdFLjlUT3yJJWill an official mugshot of any current Republican senator be published before 2...will-an-official-mugshot-of-any-cur-0dbce33ef0190.62595.18015BINARY2029-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nRvmA6AirJXhRIN0dkfJWill AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?will-ai-pass-the-bob-ross-turing-te0.643840.62022BINARY2036-01-01T05:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
yIRzgCZ8hNWill Ghislane Maxwell be pardoned by Trump before 1/1/2029?will-ghislane-maxwell-be-pardoned-b0.1011946.81050BINARY2029-01-02T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
gwjTHDVDtcpLkoliKLS9By 2026, will Gene Haas sell Haas Formula 1 Team?by-2026-will-gene-haas-sell-haas-fo0.132943.76029BINARY2027-01-01T02:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
AZqS6npUCyWill a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August ...will-a-multiagent-system-have-its-t0.381222.74011BINARY2026-07-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIrWill AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals0.578949.57056BINARY2034-05-26T13:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Rm87uyhzOEfLvyEftfg6A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030a-humanoid-robot-kills-a-human-by-20.512738.47061BINARY2030-01-02T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
dquSRlcU6hWill Trump or his team apologize for the $TRUMP meme coin or state that it was a...will-trump-or-his-team-apologize-fo0.12490.38010BINARY2029-01-25T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
tLNzS2gqclwill i get in mit rawill-i-get-in-mit-ra0.312358.48031BINARY2026-03-15T01:43:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
SNIuh5nn8OIf Donald Trump is impeached again in his second term, will it stick?if-donald-trump-is-impeached-again0.15610.69023BINARY2029-01-20T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
fo3Koo4ySJvi4xOgmTcXWill Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K be...will-russia-conduct-military-operat-59672397e5c40.171700.52030BINARY2027-01-01T04:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
t0NuqnZy99Will my friend get a girlfriend at RSI 2026?will-my-friend-get-a-girlfriend-at-ygzEgLg2CI0.222727.69020BINARY2026-08-08T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
IDL98d7ZVg5fzzfrn21FWill there be commercial flights to the Moon in 2032?will-there-be-commercial-flights-to0.162191.02031BINARY2033-01-01T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
h6rzgBTrduiur5sNvKLEWill Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 20...will-austin-chen-manifold-cofounder0.0547516.29078BINARY2029-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
VWJoSIr2vX3IInnIGvsCWill Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?will-israel-be-rated-a-free-country0.72491.34012BINARY2028-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
lXWOY6WFNDH05lW2RxfmWill I perform at Fyre Festival II?will-i-perform-at-fyre-festival-ii0.058692.38036BINARY2027-01-01T04:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
pZtuEp6SpSWill unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September...will-unemployment-in-the-us-be-high0.903701.18016BINARY2026-11-01T06:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
W7fguNiqsjel1HLZJGAFWill Britain still use FPTP voting (and no other voting mechanisms) for picking ...will-britain-still-use-fptp-voting0.44371.06014BINARY2040-01-01T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
tC80ZPzq0Swill i attend MIT in the fall of 2026will-i-attend-mit-in-the-fall-of-200.87314.65012BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
gqu0ZquphSUkraine war outlasts Trump's presidency?ukraine-war-outlasts-trumps-preside0.43236.59010BINARY2029-01-20T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nnlER8R2dSWill Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in cour...will-luigi-magiones-defense-claim-m0.4929348.130191BINARY2027-01-01T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
T0gT9UrhluUO9f8tGXS2Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did t...will-russia-lose-control-of-at-leas0.32767.72030BINARY2030-12-31T21:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
rWiPTNNxC3ZikiUDi0ywWill the next elected President of the USA serve the full term?will-the-next-elected-president-of0.751570.21031BINARY2028-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
duRSPc6CQsWill Andrew Yang run for president in 2028?will-andrew-yang-run-for-president-hQqURlRzp00.18525.27012BINARY2029-01-02T05:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
tYH8BxZBKEstwO3K6UjsWill South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?will-south-korea-withdraw-from-the0.101092.43018BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
hpIhAzSp0NFatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?fatal-terrorist-attack-via-drone-sw0.10279.36011BINARY2026-06-18T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Z25UXeqmDsiSn2yBZM2TWill the president elected in 2024 complete his or her term?will-the-president-elected-in-20240.773555.86040BINARY2029-01-01T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
msnv5nldoHpK0ANoF2lqWill Rust be ranked in the top 10 programming languages by the year 2030? 🦀🚀will-rust-be-ranked-in-the-top-10-p0.863842.61046BINARY2030-01-02T05:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nhz8QISP2AWill I aquire over 1 metric ton of Tungsten by 2028?will-i-aquire-over-1-metric-ton-of0.151418014BINARY2028-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
5S5L0R2tQ8Will Donald Trump mention a Bering Strait crossing before the end of 2026?will-donald-trump-mention-a-bering0.68452.22014BINARY2026-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nLcUZgzZ90Will we find out what’s on Trump’s neck?will-we-find-out-whats-on-trumps-ne0.16581.28016BINARY2026-04-02T03:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
ufk5p7rqc9Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?will-credible-evidence-emerge-linki0.291230013BINARY2029-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
XFEqM3CN2N4n5P5deOXvWill Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?will-silicon-valley-still-be-the-wo-784fc33914c30.541014.95038BINARY2060-01-02T04:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
ZC98s09CORWill Elon Musk be assassinated?will-elon-musk-be-assassinated0.157655.59038BINARY2077-12-31T18:29:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
QA5zgO2glOWill Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on March 25, 2025?will-brent-crude-oil-close-above-110.124906.57429.7451BINARY2026-03-25T23:59:00.000ZMar 25 8:00 AM
2sEduzcRlpDaily Coinflipdaily-coinflip-ELldI9sdR90.502950.15211.6325BINARY2026-03-25T03:59:00.000ZMar 25 8:00 AM
u28Q8I6zA2Will Dutch budget amendment allowing Ukrainian students to pay statutory fees in...will-dutch-budget-amendment-allowin0.49289.55011BINARY2026-03-24T16:00:00.000ZMar 25 8:00 AM

manifold_predictions (37,782 total rows, showing 50 of 37,782)

market idquestionslugprobabilityvolumevolume 24hunique bettorsoutcome typeclose timefetched at
uLLn6wlUfQqWItfeasU3Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromi...will-a-major-ai-lab-announce-that-t0.451664.14034BINARY2027-01-01T07:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian0.33222344.3160553BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
LsuEqlNthNWill Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-8lPPts2ySt0.464582.741680.7135BINARY2026-05-31T22:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
p5usQPdOgZAfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?afd-win-absolute-majority-in-2026-s0.424801.6130028BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
S9ynE25Uz0Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $88 on April 30, 2026?will-the-wti-crude-oil-spot-price-b-Ut6g2cZ0ZN0.9810186.035549.4854BINARY2026-04-29T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
ZppLzPlCSgIn a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflationin-a-true-free-market-prices-would0.5511335.466014BINARY2026-09-05T15:34:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
l5ttgczEutWill US average gas price reach $4.300 in April, 2026?will-us-average-gas-price-reach-4300.16269991.428921.48289BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
y2ZIUOq0ZCTrump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by April 30?trump-announces-us-blockade-of-horm0.03116146.1117446.54334BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
5RZdS28O0NWill the USA win the 2026 IMO?will-the-usa-win-the-2026-imo0.141537.93024BINARY2026-07-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
8dONzhst6CClaude app redesign in April?new-claude-app-design-in-april0.0117627.417126.1730BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
d5tOn9dcd2End of Russian-Ukraine conflict in 2026?end-of-russianukraine-conflict-in-20.15502.996016BINARY2026-12-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
gcsPhgOCslWill the White House host a UFC event by the end of 2026?will-the-white-house-host-a-ufc-eve0.861158.061018BINARY2027-01-01T04:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
92QAzw86iNytyA6Hje0gWill Elon Musk live to be 100 years old?will-elon-musk-live-to-be-1000.202059.155040BINARY2071-06-28T21:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
0z8ZsUPS2AWill gas exceed $4.50 before midtermwill-gas-exceed-450-before-midterm0.357825.41291.8455BINARY2026-11-03T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
tIylsIZu95Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?will-elon-musk-be-worth-more-than-1-SuEQdq5zlI0.83879056.6060396BINARY2029-01-01T00:00:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
pSPnUEOygLWill Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for re...will-iran-get-substantial-sanctions0.385685.77111.6635BINARY2027-04-05T22:27:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
Ltz6pggOZqDaily Coinflipdaily-coinflip-OgIEIlIEQy0.5133525812.5220BINARY2026-04-30T03:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
5hdRhCy60yWill I promote to Masters this season?will-i-promote-to-masters-this-seas-ySpEN5NOdc0.86919.281018BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
Apuh6tRqz6Masters become a closed league before July?masters-become-a-closed-league-befo0.08613.305014BINARY2026-06-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
OU2hqNZPu0Trump visits China by May 15?trump-visits-china-before-may-150.5240374.206991.97148BINARY2026-05-16T06:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
5ztuCIqnuLBitcoin 60000€ at the end of april?bitcoin-60000-end-of-april0.9520934.077118.9777BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
zOSd5nE56cWill Iran actually participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?will-iran-actually-participate-in-t0.6550606.201726.82193BINARY2026-06-10T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
I6gU82zcusTesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous0.08810661.615208.50521BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a pro...in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener0.2811985406.071542.274415BINARY2028-01-02T07:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrjWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?will-a-large-language-models-beat-a0.401913442.221002161BINARY2029-01-01T02:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
g2ccz0AI8UWill the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO0.37368233.1090201BINARY2030-01-01T21:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
C0Pu698EphWill there be a trillionaire by the end of 2026?will-there-be-a-trillionaire-by-the0.7637928.32156.22131BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
9nsyLEANnzWill the California billionaire wealth tax pass?will-california-billionaires-have-t0.35164943.232925.18296BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
5C0cPuPsNAHumanoid robot walking around me within a year?humanoid-robot-walking-around-me-wi0.173658.85328.2041BINARY2027-04-26T05:20:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
S05Q0AOctQAtletico vs Arsenal, Champions League Semi Final Leg 1, April 29thatletico-vs-arsenal-champions-leagu0.302965.97739.7936BINARY2026-04-29T21:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
gtEN0EUcRzWill Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair0.144050.69305.4544BINARY2026-06-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
CsclUcnR2IWill Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30? [Polymarket]will-anthropic-provide-mythos-to-th0.8315639.181386.4280BINARY2026-06-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
HJdflF0LTJwPNKQmaf6GIn 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical lite...in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-take0.8119201.27279.63104BINARY2030-01-01T08:00:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
g6Z5yU5ZLA[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta0.49467043.041560BINARY2026-08-05T22:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
y2nyOySApASEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballotseiu-billionaire-tax-qualifies-for0.9142747.322322.4642BINARY2026-06-25T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
gAlcgp9POcwill trump be assasinated in 2026will-trump-be-assasinated-in-20260.041082.84115BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
s2NLyA0UsZWill the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?will-the-virginia-redistricting-ref-8cq9IcCCdh0.83763.00361.0013BINARY2026-06-30T15:27:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
6uO800d2zhWill Trump take back the Panama Canal?will-trump-take-back-the-panama-can0.1677095.69157.45288BINARY2029-12-20T10:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
5eAXDA98XwOsTwQqVNySThis market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of d...this-market-resolves-yes-when-an-ar0.70658153.70141.08322BINARY2300-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
llt8uhPPRAWill President Paul Biya of Cameroon appoint a Vice President before April 30, 2...will-president-paul-biya-of-cameroo0.093055.47105214BINARY2026-04-29T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
OI2E5Cl0PtBab el-Mandeb strait closed by April 30?bab-elmandeb-strait-closed-by-april0.027038.235105.1718BINARY2026-04-29T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
lunLEO6U28Will Trump visit China during his term?will-trump-visit-china-during-his-t0.912735.96544.8630BINARY2029-01-01T04:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
uzLy0uyLZ2[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?acx-2026-will-keir-starmer-cease-to0.5556793.082183.08148BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
zg7xJ5ZkJJ4wJPJDPjWOBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, ...by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre0.42650580.30784.56614BINARY2028-01-02T07:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
tZ8LCSt2OlWill Arsenal win UCL in 2026will-arsenal-win-ucl-in-20260.261804.1214.9422BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
gEg5p5QyUd(Another) White House Correspondents' Dinner takes place before June 1, 2026?another-white-house-correspondents0.20454.99359.4012BINARY2026-06-01T23:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
pNyzUlRIqdWill Trump die in bed?will-trump-die-in-bed0.69179.7237.6112BINARY2027-04-26T15:24:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a wor...will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-15000.959757548.68231986BINARY2028-07-19T06:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
ijfFvS9a12mU7Ahqq3JIIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener-e7f99acbe19d0.57260583.69608.00351BINARY2028-01-02T07:59:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM
SAIUNdCI8UDonut Battery is essentially Lithium free?donut-battery-is-essentially-lithiu0.27155265.5395132BINARY2027-01-01T03:50:00.000ZApr 29 8:00 AM