edge-scanner-nhl-spreads

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	team code ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	9	44.4%	-38.1	9	44.4%	9L	24.9%	-13.10c	-23.3%	10	40.0%	-42.5	10	40.0%	8L	26.7%	-15.49c	-28.5%	8	62.5%	-20.0	7	71.4%	7L	23.7%	+11.75c	+20.3%	5	60.0%	-22.5	5	60.0%	4L	20.9%	-2.26c	-3.7%	1	0.0%	-82.5	1	0.0%	1L	41.3%	-36.00c	-100.0%	42.1%	0.0%	+42.1	42.1%	0.0%	+42.1	-15.5%	+21.6c	+74.0%
75-80%	13	46.2%	-31.3	9	22.2%	9L	26.6%	-28.19c	-56.8%	14	42.9%	-34.6	10	20.0%	8L	27.2%	-29.37c	-60.3%	9	88.9%	+11.4	5	80.0%	5L	23.8%	+23.92c	+44.5%	6	83.3%	+5.8	3	66.7%	2L	30.1%	+16.88c	+35.4%	1	0.0%	-77.5	1	0.0%	1L	35.6%	-38.00c	-100.0%	44.4%	0.0%	+44.4	21.1%	0.0%	+21.1	-8.7%	+9.2c	+41.4%
70-75%	10	80.0%	+7.5	6	66.7%	6L	20.1%	+12.56c	+24.1%	10	70.0%	-2.5	6	50.0%	4L	23.6%	+0.25c	+0.5%	9	55.6%	-16.9	6	33.3%	6L	27.0%	-12.20c	-27.5%	8	75.0%	+2.5	4	50.0%	2L	26.1%	+1.86c	+4.0%	1	0.0%	-72.5	1	0.0%	—	24.8%	-45.00c	-100.0%	75.0%	0.0%	+75.0	58.3%	0.0%	+58.3	-2.9%	+51.4c	+112.8%
65-70%	9	55.6%	-11.9	5	40.0%	5L	13.3%	-12.45c	-24.3%	8	50.0%	-17.5	4	25.0%	4L	13.2%	-27.27c	-53.0%	8	62.5%	-5.0	3	33.3%	3L	16.6%	-15.69c	-32.7%	9	44.4%	-23.1	6	33.3%	5L	24.1%	-8.90c	-21.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	19	47.4%	-15.1	15	33.3%	15L	13.6%	-15.70c	-32.8%	21	42.9%	-19.6	17	29.4%	12L	15.7%	-17.57c	-38.2%	12	58.3%	-4.2	10	50.0%	10L	15.7%	+2.13c	+4.6%	17	41.2%	-21.3	14	28.6%	11L	15.5%	-18.87c	-40.6%	1	0.0%	-62.5	1	0.0%	1L	37.2%	-24.00c	-100.0%	45.0%	0.0%	+45.0	31.3%	0.0%	+31.3	-22.5%	+7.3c	+64.4%
55-60%	14	35.7%	-21.8	9	22.2%	9L	13.5%	-20.68c	-49.1%	13	30.8%	-26.7	8	12.5%	7L	15.5%	-28.28c	-70.0%	13	53.8%	-3.7	8	37.5%	8L	15.0%	-5.00c	-12.2%	16	37.5%	-20.0	12	25.0%	11L	18.8%	-12.59c	-34.4%	1	0.0%	-57.5	1	0.0%	1L	31.2%	-25.00c	-100.0%	33.3%	0.0%	+33.3	17.6%	0.0%	+17.6	-16.8%	+0.7c	+41.3%
50-55%	13	38.5%	-14.0	11	27.3%	11L	19.7%	-6.03c	-18.8%	11	27.3%	-25.2	9	11.1%	7L	19.0%	-22.50c	-67.9%	7	28.6%	-23.9	6	16.7%	6L	20.0%	-15.90c	-50.0%	8	37.5%	-15.0	7	28.6%	6L	19.5%	-5.48c	-16.8%	1	0.0%	-52.5	1	0.0%	—	18.4%	-33.00c	-100.0%	33.3%	0.0%	+33.3	20.0%	0.0%	+20.0	+1.0%	+19.6c	+58.6%
45-50%	8	37.5%	-10.0	5	20.0%	5L	11.3%	-16.44c	-46.2%	7	28.6%	-18.9	4	0.0%	3L	11.9%	-35.50c	-100.0%	6	33.3%	-14.2	3	0.0%	3L	15.7%	-32.33c	-100.0%	4	50.0%	+2.5	3	33.3%	3L	15.9%	-0.07c	-0.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	5	20.0%	-22.5	4	25.0%	4L	24.0%	+8.23c	+54.0%	7	14.3%	-28.2	6	16.7%	6L	23.7%	+0.50c	+3.3%	2	0.0%	-42.5	1	0.0%	1L	24.4%	-14.00c	-100.0%	3	0.0%	-42.5	2	0.0%	2L	23.5%	-17.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	11	9.1%	-28.4	11	9.1%	11L	18.6%	-7.79c	-47.6%	7	28.6%	-8.9	7	28.6%	7L	18.8%	+11.05c	+69.7%	8	12.5%	-25.0	6	0.0%	6L	20.0%	-15.67c	-100.0%	7	28.6%	-8.9	7	28.6%	7L	18.8%	+10.63c	+65.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	4	0.0%	-32.5	4	0.0%	4L	11.8%	-20.50c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-32.5	2	0.0%	2L	13.0%	-19.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-32.5	1	0.0%	1L	14.3%	-18.00c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-32.5	2	0.0%	2L	12.3%	-19.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	10	10.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	16.7%	-10.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	16.7%	-10.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	7	14.3%	-13.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	8	37.5%	+15.0	3	0.0%	3L	5.0%	-17.33c	-100.0%	10	30.0%	+7.5	4	0.0%	4L	5.3%	-16.75c	-100.0%	10	30.0%	+7.5	3	0.0%	3L	2.8%	-19.00c	-100.0%	6	50.0%	+27.5	2	0.0%	2L	6.7%	-15.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	14	7.1%	-10.4	7	0.0%	7L	2.7%	-13.00c	-100.0%	12	0.0%	-17.5	6	0.0%	4L	2.5%	-13.17c	-100.0%	9	11.1%	-6.4	4	0.0%	4L	2.2%	-13.25c	-100.0%	12	8.3%	-9.2	4	0.0%	3L	2.4%	-13.25c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	52	15.4%	+2.9	1	0.0%	1L	1.0%	-11.00c	-100.0%	48	20.8%	+8.3	1	0.0%	1L	1.0%	-11.00c	-100.0%	42	11.9%	-0.6	1	0.0%	1L	1.0%	-11.00c	-100.0%	40	10.0%	-2.5	1	0.0%	1L	1.0%	-11.00c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-12.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.0%	0.0%	+18.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	28	25.0%	+17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	35	25.7%	+18.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	34	41.2%	+33.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	29	24.1%	+16.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.4%	0.0%	+25.4	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	45	20.0%	+17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	51	23.5%	+21.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	43	20.9%	+18.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	35	20.0%	+17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	0.0%	+21.9	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	45	80.0%	-17.5	45	80.0%	45L	9.3%	-6.97c	-8.1%	51	76.5%	-21.0	51	76.5%	44L	9.5%	-10.25c	-11.9%	43	79.1%	-18.4	43	79.1%	43L	8.3%	-8.85c	-10.2%	35	80.0%	-17.5	35	80.0%	32L	7.8%	-8.51c	-9.7%	2	100.0%	+2.5	2	100.0%	2L	8.1%	+11.63c	+13.3%	78.1%	100.0%	-21.9	78.1%	100.0%	-21.9	+1.3%	-20.3c	-23.4%
90-95%	29	75.9%	-16.6	25	72.0%	25L	12.3%	-6.90c	-8.9%	36	75.0%	-17.5	32	71.9%	26L	12.8%	-6.43c	-8.3%	36	61.1%	-31.4	33	57.6%	33L	12.8%	-20.48c	-26.5%	30	76.7%	-15.8	27	74.1%	24L	12.1%	-4.99c	-6.4%	2	100.0%	+7.5	2	100.0%	1L	7.5%	+14.41c	+17.1%	75.4%	100.0%	-24.6	71.9%	100.0%	-28.1	+5.1%	-21.1c	-25.6%
85-90%	51	84.3%	-3.2	40	80.0%	40L	8.0%	-0.30c	-0.4%	47	78.7%	-8.8	35	74.3%	30L	8.7%	-5.46c	-6.9%	40	87.5%	+0.0	33	84.8%	33L	9.0%	+5.51c	+7.1%	39	89.7%	+2.2	29	86.2%	26L	7.9%	+5.69c	+7.2%	2	100.0%	+12.5	2	100.0%	1L	5.6%	+17.67c	+21.8%	81.6%	100.0%	-18.4	77.3%	100.0%	-22.7	+2.7%	-20.4c	-25.2%
80-85%	14	92.9%	+10.4	3	66.7%	3L	15.2%	+0.53c	+0.8%	12	100.0%	+17.5	2	100.0%	1L	12.0%	+29.29c	+42.8%	9	88.9%	+6.4	2	50.0%	2L	21.3%	-9.93c	-17.0%	12	91.7%	+9.2	3	66.7%	3L	15.0%	+0.53c	+0.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	8	62.5%	-15.0	2	50.0%	2L	10.7%	-15.76c	-24.4%	10	70.0%	-7.5	2	100.0%	2L	8.8%	+31.62c	+47.9%	10	70.0%	-7.5	6	50.0%	6L	11.2%	-15.26c	-23.8%	6	50.0%	-27.5	2	50.0%	2L	9.7%	-16.23c	-25.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	10	90.0%	+17.5	4	100.0%	4L	7.7%	+33.48c	+52.3%	6	83.3%	+10.8	3	100.0%	3L	10.1%	+35.65c	+57.8%	6	83.3%	+10.8	4	100.0%	4L	7.7%	+33.25c	+51.7%	7	85.7%	+13.2	3	100.0%	3L	6.3%	+31.93c	+48.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	5	100.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	100.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	10	90.0%	+27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	66.7%	+4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	87.5%	+25.0	2	50.0%	2L	2.5%	-8.04c	-14.2%	7	71.4%	+8.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	5	80.0%	+22.5	1	100.0%	1L	7.0%	+43.71c	+82.5%	7	85.7%	+28.2	1	100.0%	—	7.0%	+43.71c	+82.5%	2	100.0%	+42.5	1	100.0%	1L	7.0%	+43.71c	+82.5%	3	100.0%	+42.5	1	100.0%	—	7.0%	+43.71c	+82.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	8	62.5%	+10.0	3	33.3%	3L	8.4%	-11.66c	-26.7%	7	71.4%	+18.9	3	33.3%	2L	8.4%	-11.66c	-26.7%	6	66.7%	+14.2	3	33.3%	3L	8.4%	-11.66c	-26.7%	4	50.0%	-2.5	1	0.0%	1L	7.5%	-45.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	13	61.5%	+14.0	1	0.0%	1L	1.2%	-46.00c	-100.0%	11	72.7%	+25.2	1	0.0%	—	1.2%	-46.00c	-100.0%	7	71.4%	+23.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	62.5%	+15.0	1	0.0%	1L	1.2%	-46.00c	-100.0%	1	100.0%	+52.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	66.7%	100.0%	-33.3	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	14	64.3%	+21.8	3	33.3%	3L	18.3%	+7.04c	+28.9%	13	69.2%	+26.7	3	33.3%	2L	18.3%	+7.04c	+28.9%	13	46.2%	+3.7	5	20.0%	5L	14.6%	-7.78c	-29.2%	16	62.5%	+20.0	2	0.0%	2L	13.5%	-28.50c	-100.0%	1	100.0%	+57.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	66.7%	100.0%	-33.3	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	19	52.6%	+15.1	4	0.0%	4L	17.1%	-21.00c	-100.0%	21	57.1%	+19.6	4	0.0%	3L	17.1%	-21.00c	-100.0%	12	41.7%	+4.2	2	0.0%	2L	21.9%	-17.00c	-100.0%	17	58.8%	+21.3	3	0.0%	3L	15.5%	-22.33c	-100.0%	1	100.0%	+62.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	55.0%	100.0%	-45.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	9	44.4%	+11.9	3	33.3%	3L	7.8%	+7.01c	+28.4%	8	50.0%	+17.5	3	33.3%	3L	7.8%	+7.01c	+28.4%	8	37.5%	+5.0	3	33.3%	3L	7.8%	+7.01c	+28.4%	9	55.6%	+23.1	2	50.0%	2L	3.8%	+18.02c	+61.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	10	20.0%	-7.5	3	0.0%	3L	7.9%	-19.67c	-100.0%	10	30.0%	+2.5	3	0.0%	3L	7.9%	-19.67c	-100.0%	9	44.4%	+16.9	2	0.0%	2L	10.8%	-18.00c	-100.0%	8	25.0%	-2.5	3	0.0%	3L	7.9%	-19.67c	-100.0%	1	100.0%	+72.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.0%	100.0%	-75.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	13	53.8%	+31.3	2	0.0%	2L	3.0%	-18.50c	-100.0%	14	57.1%	+34.6	2	0.0%	2L	3.0%	-18.50c	-100.0%	9	11.1%	-11.4	2	0.0%	2L	3.0%	-18.50c	-100.0%	6	16.7%	-5.8	1	0.0%	1L	5.2%	-15.00c	-100.0%	1	100.0%	+77.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	55.6%	100.0%	-44.4	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	9	55.6%	+38.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	10	60.0%	+42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	37.5%	+20.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	40.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+82.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	57.9%	100.0%	-42.1	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	17	13	76.5%	17L	15351	+14.76c	+24.5%	16	13	81.3%	13L	12121	+19.78c	+33.2%	18	12	66.7%	18L	7116	+4.85c	+8.0%	16	11	68.8%	16L	9351	-0.10c	-0.1%	1	1	100.0%	—	—	+7.44c	+8.1%	78.8%	100.0%	-21.2	—	+9.8c	+20.6%	—
2-4%	19	13	68.4%	19L	15582	+5.98c	+9.8%	13	9	69.2%	11L	23408	+9.75c	+16.7%	14	9	64.3%	14L	11862	-7.08c	-10.1%	16	9	56.3%	14L	5444	-12.56c	-18.4%	1	1	100.0%	—	—	+15.81c	+19.0%	68.8%	100.0%	-31.3	—	-8.3c	-6.5%	—
4-6%	20	12	60.0%	20L	15893	-2.70c	-4.4%	21	14	66.7%	20L	16546	+1.96c	+3.1%	12	10	83.3%	12L	24644	+16.18c	+24.6%	12	9	75.0%	11L	25001	+8.49c	+13.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	26	18	69.2%	26L	15499	-6.94c	-9.2%	23	19	82.6%	18L	32402	+9.52c	+13.3%	27	20	74.1%	27L	12066	+0.86c	+1.2%	18	14	77.8%	15L	20959	+2.46c	+3.3%	1	1	100.0%	1L	46618	+11.16c	+12.7%	75.5%	100.0%	-24.5	—	-10.4c	-11.6%	—
8-10%	22	16	72.7%	22L	19501	-3.73c	-5.0%	22	15	68.2%	19L	19056	-13.30c	-16.5%	23	16	69.6%	23L	16018	-7.54c	-9.9%	21	17	81.0%	19L	19094	+1.80c	+2.3%	2	2	100.0%	2L	10867	+15.81c	+19.0%	70.5%	100.0%	-29.5	—	-24.3c	-30.0%	—
10-12%	30	23	76.7%	30L	25323	+3.85c	+5.4%	36	23	63.9%	29L	21201	-9.97c	-13.7%	26	20	76.9%	26L	16244	+1.69c	+2.3%	23	14	60.9%	22L	9497	-9.04c	-13.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	28	19	67.9%	28L	11511	+3.51c	+5.6%	29	18	62.1%	27L	14389	-5.89c	-8.8%	24	15	62.5%	24L	22661	-5.11c	-7.7%	19	13	68.4%	17L	21481	+2.62c	+4.1%	1	1	100.0%	1L	0	+21.39c	+27.8%	64.9%	100.0%	-35.1	—	-22.7c	-29.7%	—
15-20%	25	6	24.0%	25L	13946	-24.48c	-51.3%	29	14	48.3%	22L	19898	-5.35c	-10.3%	22	10	45.5%	22L	15362	-13.01c	-22.7%	18	9	50.0%	14L	12737	-6.61c	-12.0%	1	0	0.0%	—	—	-33.00c	-100.0%	37.0%	0.0%	+37.0	—	+18.8c	+71.6%	—
20%+	51	16	31.4%	51L	18145	-6.59c	-17.9%	50	13	26.0%	39L	20794	-11.06c	-30.6%	39	16	41.0%	39L	34727	-1.51c	-3.7%	42	15	35.7%	36L	26333	-1.83c	-5.1%	5	0	0.0%	4L	17776	-33.60c	-100.0%	28.7%	0.0%	+28.7	—	+24.8c	+75.8%	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	113	40	35.4%	-2.00c	-5.6%	110	35	31.8%	-5.33c	-14.9%	73	32	43.8%	+2.45c	+6.1%	85	31	36.5%	+0.14c	+0.4%	6	0	0.0%	-33.50c	-100.0%	626	229	36.6%	-1.94c	-5.2%
NO (Buy No)	159	117	73.6%	-1.60c	-2.2%	162	119	73.5%	-2.07c	-2.8%	154	108	70.1%	-4.34c	-5.9%	129	94	72.9%	-3.47c	-4.6%	6	6	100.0%	+14.57c	+17.3%	1001	725	72.4%	-3.18c	-4.3%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	272	272	57.7%	-481c	-3.0%	230	222	56.3%	-817c	-6.3%	228	227	61.7%	-489c	-3.4%	189	189	57.1%	-648c	-5.8%	8	8	50.0%	-59c	-13.0%	57.1%	50.0%	+7.1	+5c	+8.5%

Pinnacle Line Moves (Last 7 Days)

When Pinnacle moves and Kalshi doesn't reprice = edge window

Game	Type	Old Line	New Line	Move	Kalshi Repriced?	When
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Lorenzo Musetti (Sets)@Francis	ml	0.4878	0.5122	0.024	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Learner Tien (Sets)@Alexander	ml	0.6703	0.3297	0.341	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Tommy Paul (Sets)@Luciano Dard	ml	0.4455	0.5545	0.109	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Matteo Arnaldi (Sets)@Rafael J	ml	0.2438	0.7562	0.512	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Buffalo Sabres@Montreal Canadi	ml	0.4558	0.5442	0.088	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-09 18:24:29
Aurora@HEROIC	ml	0.6655	0.3345	0.331	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-09 18:24:29
Omega@HAVU	ml	0.4836	0.5164	0.033	YES	2026-05-09 18:24:29
Imperial@Yawara	ml	0.7548	0.2163	0.538	YES	2026-05-09 18:24:29

Intra-Market Arb Opportunities (Last 7 Days)

YES + NO costs less than $1.00 after fees = risk-free profit

Ticker	YES Cost	NO Cost	Combined	Net Profit	Scan	When
KXNBATEAMTOTAL-26MAY09DETCLE-DET113	17.0c	99.0c	84.0c	+9.07c	10am	2026-05-13 14:33:21

Closing Line Value (CLV) — Beat Pinnacle's Close?

If you consistently beat the closing line, you have an edge. Need 2000+ wagers for significance.

Scan	Edges w/ CLV	Beat Close	Beat %
10am	275	97	35.3%
12pm	62	15	24.2%
2pm	223	63	28.3%
6am	272	95	34.9%
8am	272	97	35.7%
closing	8	4	50.0%
manual	124	41	33.1%
ml-fix	22	6	27.3%
pregame	214	69	32.2%
sigma-test	27	9	33.3%
sp-test	27	10	37.0%
sp-test2	28	10	35.7%

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	wncaab	ml	14d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	ml	30d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	ml	60d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	ml	90d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	spread	14d	60	76.7%	43.7%	11.1c	1.49
shin	wncaab	spread	30d	60	76.7%	43.7%	11.1c	1.49
shin	wncaab	spread	60d	51	72.5%	38.5%	10.4c	1.42
shin	wncaab	spread	90d	51	72.5%	38.5%	10.4c	1.42
shin	esports_lol	ml	30d	68	75.0%	32.5%	3.3c	1.41
shin	wncaab	total	30d	6	66.7%	45.7%	9.9c	1.40
shin	wncaab	total	14d	90	75.6%	18.7%	3.6c	1.35
shin	soccer	ml	14d	20	60.0%	46.2%	8.8c	1.33
shin	esports_lol	ml	60d	84	70.2%	22.1%	4.0c	1.31
shin	esports_lol	ml	90d	84	70.2%	22.1%	4.0c	1.31
shin	nba	ml	14d	82	65.9%	29.4%	4.1c	1.31
shin	esports_lol	ml	14d	22	63.6%	30.5%	7.0c	1.29
shin	nba	ml	30d	238	64.3%	28.2%	3.7c	1.28
shin	soccer	btts	60d	217	65.4%	25.2%	6.5c	1.28
shin	soccer	btts	90d	217	65.4%	25.2%	6.5c	1.28
shin	wncaab	total	60d	199	70.9%	2.6%	-0.1c	1.22
shin	wncaab	total	90d	199	70.9%	2.6%	-0.1c	1.22
shin	esports_cod	ml	14d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	esports_cod	ml	30d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	esports_cod	ml	60d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	esports_cod	ml	90d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	60d	734	64.2%	13.5%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	90d	734	64.2%	13.5%	3.3c	1.21
shin	ncaab	total	60d	548	69.2%	-1.0%	3.9c	1.19
shin	ncaab	total	90d	548	69.2%	-1.0%	3.9c	1.19
shin	nba	total	30d	1791	61.1%	8.9%	5.0c	1.16
shin	nba	total	60d	6767	62.7%	2.9%	4.1c	1.14
shin	nba	total	90d	6767	62.7%	2.9%	4.1c	1.14
shin	soccer	total	30d	485	55.5%	15.2%	3.1c	1.13
shin	nba	total	14d	545	57.8%	5.7%	6.7c	1.11
shin	nhl	spread	30d	726	59.6%	-0.1%	10.3c	1.10
shin	esports_cs2	ml	14d	76	59.2%	0.2%	8.9c	1.09
shin	soccer	total	60d	912	54.1%	8.6%	2.5c	1.08
shin	soccer	total	90d	912	54.1%	8.6%	2.5c	1.08
shin	nhl	spread	14d	135	60.7%	-5.0%	10.4c	1.08
shin	nhl	spread	60d	1618	58.7%	-4.7%	9.7c	1.06
shin	nhl	spread	90d	1618	58.7%	-4.7%	9.7c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	14d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	30d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	60d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	90d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	ncaab	total	14d	172	62.2%	-13.7%	4.2c	1.05
shin	ncaab	total	30d	172	62.2%	-13.7%	4.2c	1.05
implied	nba	teamTotal	14d	915	55.8%	-2.7%	6.7c	1.04
shin	nba	spread	30d	1912	49.2%	9.6%	6.7c	1.04
shin	nhl	ml	60d	1179	52.1%	2.5%	2.0c	1.03
shin	nhl	ml	90d	1179	52.1%	2.5%	2.0c	1.03
shin	nhl	ml	30d	511	52.1%	2.3%	2.2c	1.03
shin	soccer	ml	30d	336	51.5%	2.7%	5.8c	1.03
shin	soccer	btts	30d	116	51.7%	1.9%	7.6c	1.03
shin	esports_cs2	ml	30d	159	54.1%	-3.6%	7.8c	1.02
shin	esports_valorant	ml	60d	194	50.5%	1.4%	5.5c	1.01
shin	esports_valorant	ml	90d	194	50.5%	1.4%	5.5c	1.01
shin	nhl	total	14d	311	47.3%	5.0%	4.0c	1.00
implied	mlb	teamTotal	30d	55	61.8%	-24.4%	-11.6c	1.00
shin	soccer	total	14d	34	50.0%	-3.2%	3.3c	0.98
shin	nba	spread	14d	707	46.1%	4.2%	8.0c	0.98
shin	mlb	total	30d	166	53.0%	-10.5%	-0.2c	0.98
shin	soccer	ml	60d	636	48.6%	-1.6%	5.8c	0.98
shin	soccer	ml	90d	636	48.6%	-1.6%	5.8c	0.98
null	esports_dota2	ml	60d	66	34.8%	23.8%	21.2c	0.97
null	esports_dota2	ml	90d	66	34.8%	23.8%	21.2c	0.97
implied	mlb	teamTotal	60d	500	54.8%	-18.0%	3.0c	0.96
implied	mlb	teamTotal	90d	500	54.8%	-18.0%	3.0c	0.96
shin	mlb	spread	30d	92	50.0%	-9.3%	14.5c	0.95
shin	esports_cs2	ml	60d	388	48.7%	-7.5%	5.7c	0.95
shin	esports_cs2	ml	90d	388	48.7%	-7.5%	5.7c	0.95
implied	mlb	teamTotal	14d	712	54.5%	-19.5%	1.9c	0.95
null	esports_dota2	ml	14d	55	32.7%	23.3%	22.8c	0.94
null	esports_dota2	ml	30d	55	32.7%	23.3%	22.8c	0.94
shin	nhl	total	60d	4933	46.9%	-5.4%	3.5c	0.94
shin	nhl	total	90d	4933	46.9%	-5.4%	3.5c	0.94
shin	nhl	ml	14d	90	48.9%	-10.1%	0.1c	0.94
implied	nba	teamTotal	30d	2682	50.0%	-12.8%	3.1c	0.94
shin	soccer	btts	14d	8	50.0%	-13.2%	6.7c	0.93
null	nhl	total	30d	187	44.9%	-3.1%	5.8c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	60d	5504	41.3%	3.5%	4.7c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	90d	5504	41.3%	3.5%	4.7c	0.93
implied	nba	teamTotal	60d	7447	49.2%	-13.9%	-0.2c	0.92
implied	nba	teamTotal	90d	7447	49.2%	-13.9%	-0.2c	0.92
shin	nhl	total	30d	1621	45.7%	-7.3%	3.7c	0.92
shin	mlb	ml	60d	74	44.6%	-6.6%	3.3c	0.91
shin	mlb	ml	90d	74	44.6%	-6.6%	3.3c	0.91
null	nhl	ml	30d	87	39.1%	2.4%	9.6c	0.90
null	nhl	ml	60d	152	38.2%	4.0%	8.7c	0.90
null	nhl	ml	90d	152	38.2%	4.0%	8.7c	0.90
shin	mlb	ml	14d	168	44.0%	-7.9%	2.2c	0.90
shin	esports_valorant	ml	30d	113	44.2%	-11.4%	5.6c	0.89
shin	mlb	total	14d	855	41.2%	-5.3%	4.6c	0.89
null	nhl	total	60d	354	42.1%	-9.0%	7.2c	0.88
null	nhl	total	90d	354	42.1%	-9.0%	7.2c	0.88
shin	mlb	total	60d	506	39.3%	-5.2%	5.6c	0.87
shin	mlb	total	90d	506	39.3%	-5.2%	5.6c	0.87
shin	tennis_atp	ml	60d	1306	38.7%	-10.1%	6.3c	0.84
shin	tennis_atp	ml	90d	1306	38.7%	-10.1%	6.3c	0.84
shin	soccer	spread	30d	193	44.0%	-21.0%	10.0c	0.84

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Medium confidence (2/3 signals)	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
scan: recovery	8	8	100.0%	29.2c	4.8c
Moneyline market	13	12	92.3%	19.8c	0.4c
scan: manual	21	19	90.5%	22.9c	6.7c
scan: sigma-test	21	19	90.5%	24.5c	8.3c
Pre-game scan	7	6	85.7%	18.8c	3.3c
Confidence not scored yet	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	24	20	83.3%	40.1c	19.7c
8 AM scan	16	13	81.3%	14.9c	2.3c
10 AM scan	50	40	80.0%	10.3c	0.7c
2 PM scan	64	50	78.1%	6.3c	-0.8c
Large edge (8-15%)	69	53	76.8%	7.8c	10.1c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	50	38	76.0%	16.7c	19.9c
Medium edge (4-8%)	37	28	75.7%	2.6c	5.5c
Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
scan: ml-fix	20	15	75.0%	17.0c	1.2c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	59	44	74.6%	4.9c	3.4c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	178	130	73.0%	5.2c	4.3c
Pre-game scan	172	125	72.7%	4.7c	4.7c
Spread market	51	37	72.5%	19.6c	10.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	136	98	72.1%	4.2c	1.3c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	6	6	100.0%	12.4c	0.5c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	16	16	100.0%	55.7c	19.9c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	7	7	100.0%	30.6c	5.9c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	5	5	100.0%	42.6c	10.1c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + Moneyline market	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + No steam move	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
scan: sigma-test + Extra-large edge (15%+)	5	5	100.0%	58.8c	19.5c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	5	5	100.0%	19.0c	5.6c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	6	6	100.0%	27.3c	0.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Spread market	19	18	94.7%	39.7c	10.4c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	13	12	92.3%	19.8c	0.4c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	12	11	91.7%	12.6c	5.7c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	10	9	90.0%	22.2c	0.4c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	13	11	84.6%	43.5c	19.1c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	13	11	84.6%	18.3c	-0.2c
mkt: map total + Small edge (2-4%)	55	46	83.6%	32.5c	3.3c
scan: manual + Large edge (8-15%)	6	5	83.3%	3.1c	8.7c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	17	14	82.4%	18.2c	11.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	11	9	81.8%	36.1c	20.3c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	16	13	81.3%	16.8c	-1.5c
scan: esports model anchor + Small edge (2-4%)	57	46	80.7%	29.9c	3.3c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	65	52	80.0%	9.2c	10.0c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	10	8	80.0%	8.7c	0.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	20	16	80.0%	5.5c	5.4c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	5	4	80.0%	-1.8c	5.0c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	15	12	80.0%	18.0c	11.4c
scan: sigma-test + Large edge (8-15%)	5	4	80.0%	-0.6c	8.7c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + mkt: map total	5	4	80.0%	42.3c	8.7c
scan: sp-test + Large edge (8-15%)	5	4	80.0%	-0.6c	8.7c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	20	16	80.0%	13.8c	-0.5c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	10	8	80.0%	17.0c	0.3c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	5	4	80.0%	18.4c	12.1c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	14	11	78.6%	28.7c	6.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	32	25	78.1%	11.4c	10.3c
Scheduled scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	86	67	77.9%	6.5c	6.2c
Scheduled scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	27	21	77.8%	21.6c	19.8c
Totals (over/under) market + Medium edge (4-8%)	27	21	77.8%	6.4c	5.2c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	9	7	77.8%	15.8c	-3.0c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	9	7	77.8%	17.0c	0.4c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	22	17	77.3%	14.6c	10.7c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: btts	57	44	77.2%	20.2c	3.0c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: map total	86	66	76.7%	24.8c	4.4c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	17	13	76.5%	-1.3c	10.8c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.9c	19.8c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	50	38	76.0%	16.7c	19.9c
2 PM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.9c	19.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.6c	20.1c
Pre-game scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.6c	20.1c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.6c	20.1c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	37	28	75.7%	4.7c	9.8c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	37	28	75.7%	4.1c	-2.5c
Scheduled scan + Large edge (8-15%)	92	69	75.0%	5.6c	9.9c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	20	15	75.0%	12.2c	10.8c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	6	75.0%	0.5c	6.7c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	16	12	75.0%	16.8c	11.3c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	6	75.0%	-0.7c	5.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	8	6	75.0%	25.2c	20.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
scan: esports model anchor + Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	8	6	75.0%	11.6c	-1.8c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	8	6	75.0%	42.5c	12.5c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	47	35	74.5%	-0.6c	-4.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	82	61	74.4%	6.5c	0.0c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	60	44	73.3%	3.4c	6.0c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	15	11	73.3%	16.0c	11.4c
scan: manual + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	19	73.1%	15.0c	20.2c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	19	73.1%	15.0c	20.2c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	19	73.1%	15.0c	20.2c
Scheduled scan + Small edge (2-4%)	48	35	72.9%	-4.2c	-6.1c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	11	8	72.7%	16.3c	6.3c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	272	197	72.4%	1.4c	2.5c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	43	31	72.1%	3.8c	5.9c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	136	98	72.1%	4.2c	1.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	95	68	71.6%	0.8c	-1.7c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
implied::teamTotal	2026-W19	128	51.6%	-9.0%	8.5c
	2026-W18	299	59.5%	-3.5%	5.1c
	2026-W17	646	50.6%	-9.9%	6.9c
	2026-W16	835	43.7%	-27.1%	1.7c
	2026-W15	774	52.2%	-2.6%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	3407	50.8%	-12.0%	-2.0c
	2026-W14	55	61.8%	-24.4%	-11.6c
	2026-W13	500	54.8%	-18.0%	3.0c
	2026-W13	1358	43.7%	-21.2%	-2.0c

shin::btts	2026-W18	4	50.0%	-9.0%	8.0c
	2026-W17	4	50.0%	-17.0%	5.4c
	2026-W16	68	47.1%	-2.4%	7.5c
	2026-W15	40	60.0%	11.6%	8.1c
	2026-W14	55	80.0%	59.1%	8.7c
	2026-W13	46	82.6%	41.5%	1.1c

shin::ml	2026-W19	26	38.5%	-28.5%	-0.4c
	2026-W19	6	100.0%	18.4%	2.4c
	2026-W19	16	43.8%	-36.9%	-1.1c
	2026-W19	12	100.0%	193.2%	1.4c
	2026-W19	36	52.8%	13.2%	5.6c
	2026-W19	6	100.0%	44.8%	2.9c
	2026-W18	42	59.5%	-3.9%	8.0c
	2026-W18	11	0.0%	-100.0%	10.2c
	2026-W18	28	42.9%	-22.8%	0.2c
	2026-W18	14	42.9%	27.5%	8.2c
	2026-W18	197	30.5%	-30.8%	7.0c
	2026-W18	14	85.7%	20.3%	4.7c
	2026-W18	6	50.0%	-24.8%	-0.2c
	2026-W18	6	33.3%	2.9%	10.2c
	2026-W17	42	52.4%	4.2%	10.7c
	2026-W17	28	53.6%	17.1%	7.4c
	2026-W17	66	51.5%	14.7%	4.0c
	2026-W17	48	62.5%	13.5%	0.3c
	2026-W17	18	66.7%	22.8%	8.6c
	2026-W17	60	51.7%	19.4%	6.3c
	2026-W17	12	50.0%	35.1%	6.0c
	2026-W16	26	61.5%	32.7%	6.0c
	2026-W16	82	59.8%	-0.1%	3.5c
	2026-W16	142	49.3%	-10.4%	-0.5c
	2026-W16	181	48.6%	-4.7%	6.2c
	2026-W16	255	36.1%	-19.2%	7.2c
	2026-W16	18	50.0%	11.8%	6.8c
	2026-W16	20	75.0%	43.0%	1.5c
	2026-W16	27	48.1%	-1.0%	7.8c
	2026-W15	267	53.9%	14.4%	4.3c
	2026-W15	42	47.6%	-19.4%	5.3c
	2026-W15	32	37.5%	-21.1%	5.5c
	2026-W15	64	71.9%	74.2%	3.9c
	2026-W15	123	54.5%	8.8%	4.6c
	2026-W15	381	34.6%	-11.6%	6.6c
	2026-W15	24	91.7%	33.2%	1.9c
	2026-W15	6	0.0%	-100.0%	-1.2c
	2026-W14	134	50.7%	-2.9%	6.4c
	2026-W14	392	61.5%	4.0%	4.0c
	2026-W14	560	53.2%	5.2%	2.0c
	2026-W14	301	43.9%	-3.6%	5.1c
	2026-W14	23	26.1%	-48.4%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	16	50.0%	-18.5%	7.2c
	2026-W14	65	70.8%	29.4%	4.1c
	2026-W14	64	40.6%	-14.9%	1.0c
	2026-W14	166	45.8%	-6.2%	6.4c
	2026-W13	104	74.0%	21.2%	0.0c
	2026-W13	108	46.3%	-10.3%	1.3c
	2026-W13	22	59.1%	6.8%	1.2c
	2026-W13	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c
	2026-W13	95	36.8%	-22.4%	1.1c
	2026-W13	7	42.9%	-4.5%	14.0c
	2026-W13	74	44.6%	-6.6%	3.3c
	2026-W13	76	51.3%	20.4%	4.9c
	2026-W13	6	83.3%	54.4%	-0.2c
	2026-W13	134	44.8%	-7.3%	5.1c
	2026-W13	16	12.5%	-57.6%	10.0c
	2026-W12	16	37.5%	-30.3%	2.7c
	2026-W12	40	37.5%	-20.7%	5.1c
	2026-W12	4	25.0%	-25.4%	16.8c
	2026-W12	7	100.0%	14.4%	0.9c

shin::spread	2026-W19	34	52.9%	-15.9%	11.7c
	2026-W19	119	69.7%	40.8%	15.2c
	2026-W18	294	35.7%	-13.6%	4.3c
	2026-W18	51	62.7%	-5.9%	10.9c
	2026-W18	16	25.0%	-62.6%	10.1c
	2026-W17	413	44.8%	-4.9%	8.2c
	2026-W17	64	68.8%	3.7%	9.2c
	2026-W17	12	66.7%	21.8%	4.5c
	2026-W16	557	59.2%	34.8%	5.4c
	2026-W16	202	55.9%	-12.2%	11.4c
	2026-W16	82	37.8%	-18.1%	10.2c
	2026-W15	375	60.3%	9.2%	9.6c
	2026-W15	529	44.8%	-0.2%	6.2c
	2026-W15	83	50.6%	-19.8%	10.7c
	2026-W14	2623	39.5%	6.3%	3.7c
	2026-W14	714	59.2%	-3.4%	9.1c
	2026-W14	92	50.0%	-9.3%	14.5c
	2026-W14	16	37.5%	-20.3%	0.7c
	2026-W14	109	32.1%	-12.4%	12.7c
	2026-W13	969	30.9%	-18.2%	3.4c
	2026-W13	96	26.0%	-18.6%	-0.3c
	2026-W13	178	52.8%	-24.9%	9.5c
	2026-W13	50	74.0%	39.4%	10.6c
	2026-W13	289	29.4%	-30.7%	8.1c
	2026-W13	41	31.7%	-29.0%	11.7c
	2026-W12	227	44.9%	-18.1%	4.0c
	2026-W12	171	50.3%	4.1%	0.6c
	2026-W12	77	53.2%	-11.3%	9.7c
	2026-W12	11	18.2%	-79.5%	10.4c

shin::total	2026-W19	83	43.4%	2.5%	2.6c
	2026-W19	89	80.9%	57.4%	4.4c
	2026-W18	152	59.9%	10.6%	5.9c
	2026-W18	110	56.4%	12.9%	1.8c
	2026-W18	28	57.1%	10.2%	3.4c
	2026-W17	395	53.4%	-7.0%	7.5c
	2026-W17	146	38.4%	-11.6%	6.1c
	2026-W17	22	40.9%	7.8%	4.5c
	2026-W16	608	56.7%	-4.9%	3.7c
	2026-W16	437	45.5%	-10.0%	2.8c
	2026-W16	266	57.1%	16.7%	2.7c
	2026-W15	845	45.9%	-8.7%	4.0c
	2026-W15	169	54.4%	14.6%	3.6c
	2026-W15	547	68.7%	30.6%	4.4c
	2026-W14	2909	62.8%	4.2%	3.8c
	2026-W14	1824	46.4%	-5.9%	3.1c
	2026-W14	250	51.2%	3.7%	2.3c
	2026-W14	166	53.0%	-10.5%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	6	66.7%	45.7%	9.9c
	2026-W13	1878	64.9%	-3.3%	3.7c
	2026-W13	261	67.0%	-10.2%	1.5c
	2026-W13	980	48.4%	-5.8%	3.1c
	2026-W13	136	69.1%	2.3%	1.3c
	2026-W13	506	39.3%	-5.2%	5.6c
	2026-W13	169	56.8%	1.7%	0.7c
	2026-W12	189	52.9%	-1.0%	5.5c
	2026-W12	287	71.1%	8.6%	6.2c
	2026-W12	508	49.2%	3.5%	5.1c
	2026-W12	57	75.4%	0.5%	-4.4c
	2026-W12	8	0.0%	-100.0%	12.2c

unknown::map_total	2026-W13	484	30.2%	2.2%	21.5c
	2026-W13	216	22.2%	-41.1%	11.4c

unknown::ml	2026-W18	10	0.0%	-100.0%	7.4c
	2026-W16	12	0.0%	-100.0%	23.1c
	2026-W15	65	52.3%	26.3%	7.5c
	2026-W14	51	35.3%	3.0%	6.7c
	2026-W13	185	17.3%	-38.3%	27.8c
	2026-W13	66	34.8%	23.8%	21.2c
	2026-W13	105	11.4%	-54.9%	24.5c
	2026-W13	102	7.8%	-59.3%	30.6c
	2026-W13	14	42.9%	17.8%	10.0c

unknown::spread	2026-W19	8	0.0%	-100.0%	11.3c
	2026-W18	46	28.3%	10.9%	12.7c
	2026-W17	77	16.9%	-33.2%	12.5c
	2026-W16	116	14.7%	-42.8%	13.9c
	2026-W15	246	22.8%	-15.7%	13.8c
	2026-W14	258	29.5%	12.0%	13.5c
	2026-W13	64	31.3%	24.0%	16.2c

unknown::total	2026-W18	19	31.6%	-23.7%	5.1c
	2026-W17	25	24.0%	-42.8%	5.4c
	2026-W16	33	45.5%	13.9%	8.3c
	2026-W15	110	51.8%	3.3%	5.2c
	2026-W14	125	40.8%	-18.7%	5.8c
	2026-W13	42	33.3%	-2.5%	17.5c

Forex Regime Detection — Trending, Reverting, or Random?

Hurst exponent classifies each pair: >0.55 trending, <0.45 mean-reverting, else random walk. Coiled spring = breakout imminent.

Pair	Regime	Hurst	Autocorr	Contractions	BBW %ile	Spring?
AUD/USD	mean_reverting	0.368	-0.574	10	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.221	-0.391	10	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.425	-0.075	110	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.416	0.057	149	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.444	0.054	153	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.425	-0.029	165	100%	no
GBP/AUD	mean_reverting	0.395	-0.138	10	100%	no
NZD/USD	mean_reverting	0.370	-0.324	10	100%	no
USD/CAD	mean_reverting	0.174	-0.393	10	100%	no
USD/JPY	mean_reverting	0.376	-0.342	10	100%	no
USD/NOK	mean_reverting	0.403	-0.261	149	100%	no
USD/NOK	mean_reverting	0.446	-0.245	158	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.521	-0.413	25	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.535	-0.298	41	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.525	-0.266	46	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.514	-0.091	115	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.511	-0.071	122	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.543	0.049	131	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.546	-0.164	153	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.537	-0.197	160	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.548	-0.196	163	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.540	-0.197	165	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.537	-0.014	110	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.519	-0.003	115	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.525	-0.002	119	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.514	-0.016	122	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.538	0.045	131	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.519	0.044	149	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.493	-0.042	105	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.460	-0.064	115	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.465	-0.048	119	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.456	-0.059	122	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.465	0.031	126	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.465	0.015	131	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.451	0.079	135	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.505	0.108	139	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.526	0.097	143	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.470	0.097	146	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.458	0.003	158	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.521	-0.012	160	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.468	-0.020	163	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.464	-0.026	168	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.541	0.167	63	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.534	0.166	66	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.534	0.156	69	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.540	0.141	74	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.512	0.134	78	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.515	0.129	84	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.515	0.128	88	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.509	0.148	91	100%	no

GEX (Gamma Exposure)

Awaiting options chain data. GEX will populate when Polygon options collection runs.

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	23756	0.5994	0.4454	0.3252	0.3252
1	Execution Price	838	0.7054	0.5010	0.4461	0.4461
1	Execution Price	10467	0.6047	0.3753	0.4518	0.4518
1	Execution Price	309	0.7037	0.5149	0.3761	0.3761
1	Execution Price	1053	0.5363	0.2741	0.5712	0.5712
1	Execution Price	1369	0.5778	0.4375	0.3066	0.3066
1	Execution Price	1297	0.5552	0.3286	0.5108	0.5108
1	Execution Price	2127	0.5600	0.3989	0.3424	0.3424
1	Execution Price	292	0.5274	0.2905	0.4548	0.4548
1	Spread (cents)	54	7.1667	4.0278	0.5270	0.5270
1	Spread (cents)	82	3.5088	8.5600	-0.3613	0.3613
2	Exec Price (No)	23756	0.5585	0.5985	-0.0839	0.0839
2	Exec Price (Yes)	838	0.5873	0.3964	0.4011	0.4011
2	Exec Price (No)	10467	0.5327	0.6182	-0.1674	0.1674
2	Net Edge (Yes)	309	-0.1023	0.0104	-0.3080	0.3080
2	Net Edge	1053	0.0690	0.2206	-0.4754	0.4754
2	Steam Magnitude	1369	0.2014	0.2596	-0.0545	0.0545
2	Net Edge	1297	0.0283	0.0846	-0.3317	0.3317
2	Net Edge	2127	0.0400	0.0673	-0.1668	0.1668
2	Execution Price	403	0.4614	0.3295	0.3517	0.3517
2	Net Edge	292	0.0531	0.1931	-0.4406	0.4406
2	Net Edge	120	0.0450	0.1665	-0.3882	0.3882
3	Model Prob (Yes)	23756	0.4896	0.4449	0.0837	0.0837
3	Model Prob (No)	838	0.4136	0.6462	-0.3678	0.3678
3	Net Edge (No)	10467	-0.0433	-0.0855	0.1596	0.1596
3	Net Edge (No)	309	-0.0855	-0.1814	0.2936	0.2936
3	Net Edge (No)	1053	-0.0976	-0.0113	-0.1546	0.1546
3	Steam Detected	1369	0.2538	0.2866	-0.0365	0.0365
3	Spread (cents)	1297	1.6587	1.5025	0.0673	0.0673
3	Net Edge (No)	2127	-0.0375	-0.0821	0.1550	0.1550

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W19	tennis_atp	ml	36	1.1	25.71%	100%	5.62%	0.0%
2026-W19	nhl	total	94	3.9	14.93%	100%	2.20%	0.0%
2026-W19	nhl	spread	48	4.3	32.35%	83%	11.07%	0.0%
2026-W19	nhl	ml	32	2.2	7.50%	100%	-0.93%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	total	111	1.5	21.40%	100%	5.03%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	teamTotal	167	9.0	38.66%	100%	5.93%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	spread	161	1.6	25.15%	100%	11.44%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	ml	20	1.3	19.07%	100%	1.05%	0.0%
2026-W19	esports_valorant	ml	16	4.5	25.19%	100%	-1.06%	0.0%
2026-W19	esports_lol	ml	6	3.5	33.75%	100%	2.38%	0.0%
2026-W19	esports_dota2	ml	3	5.3	2.67%	100%	-3.92%	-
2026-W19	esports_cs2	ml	6	1.8	17.58%	100%	2.89%	0.0%
2026-W18	tennis_atp	ml	201	1.5	18.19%	100%	6.82%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	total	28	4.8	18.63%	100%	3.36%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	spread	16	4.3	47.28%	100%	10.10%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	ml	14	1.0	14.79%	100%	8.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	btts	4	1.3	0.63%	100%	7.98%	0.0%
2026-W18	nhl	total	141	7.9	15.32%	87%	1.79%	0.0%
2026-W18	nhl	spread	97	3.2	18.58%	53%	11.75%	0.0%
2026-W18	nhl	ml	38	1.2	11.00%	74%	2.12%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	total	152	2.0	20.82%	100%	5.88%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	teamTotal	317	10.4	31.77%	100%	4.52%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	spread	294	2.3	24.38%	100%	4.35%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	ml	14	1.0	25.64%	100%	4.74%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_valorant	ml	11	6.6	10.77%	100%	10.21%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_lol	ml	6	2.3	31.67%	100%	10.17%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_dota2	ml	6	6.0	12.17%	100%	-0.24%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_cs2	ml	42	8.0	19.79%	100%	7.98%	0.0%
2026-W17	tennis_atp	ml	60	1.1	26.97%	100%	6.32%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	total	24	5.1	15.31%	100%	3.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	spread	12	7.8	33.25%	100%	4.52%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	ml	18	1.0	19.39%	100%	8.58%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	btts	4	1.5	0.75%	100%	5.42%	0.0%
2026-W17	nhl	total	185	5.3	13.98%	86%	5.25%	0.0%
2026-W17	nhl	spread	141	2.4	20.90%	45%	11.04%	0.0%
2026-W17	nhl	ml	48	1.2	4.81%	100%	0.29%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	total	398	2.3	14.83%	100%	7.44%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	teamTotal	705	11.3	25.28%	100%	6.19%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	spread	416	2.4	24.12%	100%	8.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	ml	66	1.1	19.13%	100%	3.99%	0.0%
2026-W17	esports_valorant	ml	28	7.3	22.12%	100%	7.37%	0.0%
2026-W17	esports_lol	ml	12	7.8	19.58%	100%	6.00%	0.0%
2026-W17	esports_cs2	ml	42	3.5	24.01%	100%	10.66%	0.0%
2026-W16	tennis_atp	ml	259	1.6	21.36%	100%	7.05%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	total	267	3.3	22.63%	100%	2.60%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	spread	89	11.9	28.78%	100%	8.87%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	ml	181	1.5	25.76%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	btts	68	5.8	10.22%	100%	7.48%	0.0%
2026-W16	nhl	total	555	9.3	14.09%	94%	1.82%	0.0%
2026-W16	nhl	spread	319	7.7	25.61%	63%	12.41%	0.0%

Regulatory Risk Monitor

Category-level regulatory exposure. Based on March 2026 panel analysis of lawsuits, legislation, and enforcement actions.

Category	Risk Tier	Score	Active Mkts	Settled	Reason
sports	HIGH	100%	0	0	Senate bill pursuing sports prediction market ban; WA lawsuit
politics	HIGH	100%	0	0	Insider trading enforcement; athlete/politician blocking
culture	MEDIUM	50%	0	0	Entertainment markets face moderate scrutiny
crypto	MEDIUM	50%	0	0	SEC oversight expanding to prediction markets
economics	LOW	20%	0	0	Fed/CPI markets least exposed to regulatory action
weather	LOW	20%	0	0	Weather markets face minimal regulatory pressure
science	LOW	20%	0	0	Science/tech markets face minimal regulatory pressure
nba	UNKNOWN	19%	996	22662	No regulatory data for this category
nhl	UNKNOWN	18%	367	9630	No regulatory data for this category
tennis_atp	UNKNOWN	17%	203	1326	No regulatory data for this category
esports_cs2	UNKNOWN	14%	30	1307	No regulatory data for this category
esports_valorant	UNKNOWN	14%	23	296	No regulatory data for this category
soccer	UNKNOWN	14%	15	2161	No regulatory data for this category
esports_lol	UNKNOWN	13%	12	405	No regulatory data for this category
golf	UNKNOWN	13%	12	0	No regulatory data for this category
esports_dota2	UNKNOWN	13%	8	120	No regulatory data for this category
esports_cod	UNKNOWN	12%	6	6	No regulatory data for this category
ncaab	UNKNOWN	10%	0	673	No regulatory data for this category
wncaab	UNKNOWN	10%	0	264	No regulatory data for this category
mlb	UNKNOWN	10%	0	1457	No regulatory data for this category

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
pinnacle_move_size	kalshi_repriced	1	61.514	<0.001	negative	YES	5252
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	49.481	<0.001	negative	YES	38843
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	38.507	<0.001	positive	YES	38843
fx_USD_JPY	fx_GBP_USD	1	4.292	0.0383	negative	YES	171
pinnacle_move_size	kalshi_repriced	2	25.324	0.9787	negative	no	5251
pinnacle_move_size	kalshi_repriced	3	18.530	0.9953	negative	no	5250
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	3.030	0.0818	positive	no	38843
fx_USD_JPY	fx_AUD_USD	1	2.616	0.1058	negative	no	171
fx_USD_JPY	fx_EUR_USD	1	0.261	0.6097	negative	no	171
fx_GBP_USD	fx_EUR_USD	1	0.236	0.6274	positive	no	171
fx_GBP_USD	fx_USD_JPY	1	0.152	0.6962	negative	no	171
fx_AUD_USD	fx_USD_JPY	1	0.123	0.7254	negative	no	171
fx_EUR_USD	fx_AUD_USD	1	0.096	0.7567	positive	no	171
fx_AUD_USD	fx_EUR_USD	1	0.067	0.7963	positive	no	171
fx_GBP_USD	fx_AUD_USD	1	0.037	0.8466	positive	no	171
fx_EUR_USD	fx_GBP_USD	1	0.022	0.8827	positive	no	171
fx_EUR_USD	fx_USD_JPY	1	0.008	0.9283	negative	no	171
fx_AUD_USD	fx_GBP_USD	1	0.001	0.9779	positive	no	171

Data Viewer: edge-scanner-nhl-spreads

sports_edges (0 total rows, showing 0 of 0)