edge-scanner-nhl-ml | Data Viewer

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	team code ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	2	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+22.5	1	100.0%	—	0.3%	+24.18c	+32.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	9	88.9%	+16.4	5	80.0%	5L	7.9%	+15.37c	+24.6%	9	88.9%	+16.4	4	75.0%	2L	8.5%	+10.84c	+17.4%	9	88.9%	+16.4	5	80.0%	5L	7.9%	+15.37c	+24.6%	8	87.5%	+15.0	4	75.0%	4L	8.4%	+11.54c	+18.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	8	100.0%	+32.5	2	100.0%	2L	1.1%	+32.55c	+50.1%	9	100.0%	+32.5	2	100.0%	1L	1.1%	+32.55c	+50.1%	7	100.0%	+32.5	3	100.0%	3L	2.5%	+33.48c	+52.3%	5	100.0%	+32.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.3%	+29.76c	+43.8%	1	100.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	21	61.9%	-0.6	6	33.3%	6L	5.6%	-22.70c	-41.3%	20	65.0%	+2.5	6	33.3%	6L	4.9%	-23.48c	-42.1%	19	73.7%	+11.2	7	42.9%	7L	3.9%	-14.80c	-26.2%	18	66.7%	+4.2	5	40.0%	5L	6.5%	-15.65c	-28.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	26	53.8%	-3.7	5	60.0%	5L	3.1%	+4.76c	+8.9%	33	51.5%	-6.0	4	75.0%	4L	3.7%	+19.95c	+38.0%	24	54.2%	-3.3	4	75.0%	4L	4.0%	+20.20c	+38.7%	23	52.2%	-5.3	4	50.0%	4L	0.5%	-7.77c	-13.8%	1	100.0%	+42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	52.5%	100.0%	-47.5	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	26	42.3%	-10.2	3	66.7%	3L	1.6%	+15.31c	+31.2%	31	38.7%	-13.8	4	50.0%	4L	6.2%	+4.23c	+9.6%	32	50.0%	-2.5	5	40.0%	5L	2.2%	-9.81c	-20.3%	25	44.0%	-8.5	2	50.0%	2L	1.2%	-0.75c	-1.5%	1	0.0%	-52.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	40.4%	0.0%	+40.4	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	26	57.7%	+10.2	1	100.0%	1L	18.4%	+68.82c	+264.7%	28	60.7%	+13.2	2	100.0%	2L	10.2%	+60.92c	+176.6%	27	48.1%	+0.6	2	50.0%	2L	9.6%	+12.41c	+35.5%	23	56.5%	+9.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+52.5	1	100.0%	1L	1.9%	+53.01c	+123.3%	59.3%	100.0%	-40.7	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0	+11.0%	+10.5c	+77.4%
40-45%	26	46.2%	+3.7	5	0.0%	5L	10.1%	-30.60c	-100.0%	33	48.5%	+6.0	5	0.0%	3L	10.1%	-30.60c	-100.0%	24	45.8%	+3.3	5	0.0%	5L	10.1%	-30.60c	-100.0%	22	50.0%	+7.5	3	0.0%	3L	10.1%	-30.67c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	47.5%	0.0%	+47.5	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	21	38.1%	+0.6	6	16.7%	6L	15.0%	-4.29c	-21.3%	20	35.0%	-2.5	4	25.0%	4L	12.9%	+1.31c	+5.8%	19	26.3%	-11.2	3	33.3%	3L	12.3%	+8.41c	+36.1%	17	35.3%	-2.2	4	25.0%	4L	12.9%	+1.31c	+5.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	8	0.0%	-32.5	4	0.0%	4L	14.6%	-17.50c	-100.0%	9	0.0%	-32.5	4	0.0%	4L	14.6%	-17.50c	-100.0%	7	0.0%	-32.5	1	0.0%	1L	14.9%	-16.00c	-100.0%	5	0.0%	-32.5	3	0.0%	3L	14.5%	-18.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	9	11.1%	-16.4	1	0.0%	1L	8.8%	-19.00c	-100.0%	10	10.0%	-17.5	1	0.0%	1L	8.8%	-19.00c	-100.0%	9	11.1%	-16.4	1	0.0%	1L	8.8%	-19.00c	-100.0%	8	12.5%	-15.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	2	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	2	100.0%	+22.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.2%	+24.18c	+32.7%	1	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	9	88.9%	+16.4	5	80.0%	5L	7.9%	+15.37c	+24.6%	9	88.9%	+16.4	4	75.0%	2L	8.5%	+10.84c	+17.4%	9	88.9%	+16.4	5	80.0%	5L	7.9%	+15.37c	+24.6%	8	87.5%	+15.0	4	75.0%	4L	8.4%	+11.54c	+18.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	8	100.0%	+32.5	2	100.0%	2L	0.6%	+32.08c	+49.0%	9	100.0%	+32.5	2	100.0%	1L	0.6%	+32.08c	+49.0%	7	100.0%	+32.5	3	100.0%	3L	2.2%	+33.17c	+51.6%	5	100.0%	+32.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.3%	+29.76c	+43.8%	1	100.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	21	61.9%	-0.6	6	33.3%	6L	5.4%	-22.86c	-41.4%	20	65.0%	+2.5	5	20.0%	5L	5.8%	-35.80c	-64.9%	19	73.7%	+11.2	6	33.3%	6L	4.6%	-23.46c	-42.0%	17	64.7%	+2.2	5	40.0%	5L	6.3%	-15.83c	-29.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	26	53.8%	-3.7	6	33.3%	6L	3.6%	-20.23c	-38.6%	33	51.5%	-6.0	5	40.0%	5L	4.2%	-13.07c	-25.3%	24	54.2%	-3.3	4	50.0%	4L	4.8%	-2.34c	-4.6%	22	50.0%	-7.5	6	16.7%	6L	1.1%	-39.01c	-70.7%	1	100.0%	+42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	52.5%	100.0%	-47.5	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	26	42.3%	-10.2	2	50.0%	2L	1.4%	-0.28c	-0.6%	30	40.0%	-12.5	3	33.3%	3L	7.7%	-9.86c	-23.5%	29	51.7%	-0.8	5	40.0%	5L	2.4%	-9.61c	-19.9%	25	44.0%	-8.5	1	0.0%	1L	0.4%	-48.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-52.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	41.1%	0.0%	+41.1	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	26	57.7%	+10.2	3	33.3%	3L	12.9%	-1.39c	-4.2%	29	62.1%	+14.6	4	50.0%	4L	10.2%	+12.21c	+34.4%	30	50.0%	+2.5	3	33.3%	3L	13.0%	-0.73c	-2.2%	23	56.5%	+9.0	1	0.0%	1L	20.0%	-27.00c	-100.0%	1	100.0%	+52.5	1	100.0%	1L	1.9%	+53.01c	+123.3%	60.0%	100.0%	-40.0	42.9%	100.0%	-57.1	+9.4%	-46.6c	-104.8%
40-45%	26	46.2%	+3.7	4	0.0%	4L	12.0%	-28.25c	-100.0%	33	48.5%	+6.0	5	0.0%	3L	14.3%	-25.60c	-100.0%	24	45.8%	+3.3	4	0.0%	4L	12.0%	-28.25c	-100.0%	23	47.8%	+5.3	3	0.0%	3L	17.6%	-22.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	47.5%	0.0%	+47.5	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	21	38.1%	+0.6	6	0.0%	6L	18.0%	-17.50c	-100.0%	20	35.0%	-2.5	4	0.0%	4L	17.0%	-19.00c	-100.0%	19	26.3%	-11.2	2	0.0%	2L	18.1%	-18.50c	-100.0%	18	33.3%	-4.2	4	0.0%	4L	17.0%	-19.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	8	0.0%	-32.5	4	0.0%	4L	14.6%	-17.50c	-100.0%	9	0.0%	-32.5	4	0.0%	4L	14.6%	-17.50c	-100.0%	7	0.0%	-32.5	1	0.0%	1L	14.9%	-16.00c	-100.0%	5	0.0%	-32.5	3	0.0%	3L	14.5%	-18.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	9	11.1%	-16.4	1	0.0%	1L	7.8%	-20.00c	-100.0%	10	10.0%	-17.5	1	0.0%	1L	7.8%	-20.00c	-100.0%	9	11.1%	-16.4	1	0.0%	1L	7.8%	-20.00c	-100.0%	8	12.5%	-15.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	2	0.0%	-22.5	1	0.0%	1L	7.6%	-15.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-22.5	1	0.0%	1L	7.6%	-15.00c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-22.5	1	0.0%	1L	7.6%	-15.00c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	26	16	61.5%	26L	350448	+4.31c	+7.8%	26	11	42.3%	22L	330134	-12.76c	-23.7%	29	18	62.1%	29L	245009	+5.62c	+10.3%	20	10	50.0%	19L	310741	-7.56c	-13.5%	2	0	0.0%	2L	0	-43.00c	-100.0%	51.9%	0.0%	+51.9	—	+38.8c	+92.3%	—
2-4%	3	2	66.7%	3L	215056	+13.29c	+26.1%	2	2	100.0%	2L	0	+47.43c	+96.8%	5	3	60.0%	5L	714245	+7.94c	+15.9%	1	1	100.0%	1L	653872	+41.85c	+76.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4-6%	7	3	42.9%	7L	275650	-16.74c	-28.7%	4	4	100.0%	4L	83266	+40.46c	+71.6%	7	7	100.0%	7L	609870	+40.12c	+70.6%	7	5	71.4%	7L	245733	+11.10c	+19.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	4	3	75.0%	4L	116380	+30.11c	+71.3%	4	2	50.0%	4L	78966	+6.60c	+15.6%	4	2	50.0%	4L	0	+6.60c	+15.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8-10%	5	2	40.0%	5L	283667	-7.13c	-15.6%	5	2	40.0%	5L	416639	-7.13c	-15.6%	5	1	20.0%	5L	1077862	-26.46c	-57.8%	4	1	25.0%	4L	0	-28.34c	-54.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-12%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	16	10	62.5%	16L	409220	+28.46c	+91.8%	16	5	31.3%	12L	84320	-1.08c	-3.5%	11	5	45.5%	11L	179930	+7.34c	+20.3%	13	7	53.8%	13L	516506	+18.70c	+57.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	15	8	53.3%	15L	358379	+29.10c	+136.4%	12	4	33.3%	10L	410090	+8.79c	+38.5%	8	6	75.0%	8L	592353	+45.50c	+177.6%	7	3	42.9%	7L	384092	+20.04c	+97.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20%+	3	0	0.0%	3L	162219	-14.33c	-100.0%	5	2	40.0%	5L	36972	+17.61c	+86.3%	2	2	100.0%	2L	579905	+79.52c	+548.4%	3	2	66.7%	3L	0	+48.01c	+327.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	88	47	53.4%	+3.42c	+7.1%	102	51	50.0%	-0.40c	-0.8%	88	53	60.2%	+7.85c	+15.6%	85	45	52.9%	+1.31c	+2.6%	3	2	66.7%	+8.30c	+14.6%	593	308	51.9%	+0.71c	+1.4%
NO (Buy No)	96	53	55.2%	+5.65c	+11.9%	102	51	50.0%	+0.65c	+1.4%	92	56	60.9%	+9.09c	+18.3%	73	38	52.1%	+1.82c	+3.8%	3	2	66.7%	+8.30c	+14.6%	590	309	52.4%	+1.91c	+3.9%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	184	184	54.3%	+844c	+9.6%	169	165	45.5%	-514c	-6.6%	182	180	60.6%	+1527c	+16.9%	139	139	51.1%	+157c	+2.4%	4	4	50.0%	-12c	-5.6%	50.1%	50.0%	+0.1	+4c	+7.6%

Pinnacle Line Moves (Last 7 Days)

When Pinnacle moves and Kalshi doesn't reprice = edge window

Game	Type	Old Line	New Line	Move	Kalshi Repriced?	When
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	spread	-5	5	10.000	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Detroit Pistons@Cleveland Cava	teamTotal	105.75832337374081	100.88466791872972	4.874	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Lorenzo Musetti (Sets)@Francis	ml	0.4878	0.5122	0.024	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Learner Tien (Sets)@Alexander	ml	0.6703	0.3297	0.341	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Tommy Paul (Sets)@Luciano Dard	ml	0.4455	0.5545	0.109	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Matteo Arnaldi (Sets)@Rafael J	ml	0.2438	0.7562	0.512	YES	2026-05-11 18:22:26
Buffalo Sabres@Montreal Canadi	ml	0.4558	0.5442	0.088	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-09 18:24:29
Aurora@HEROIC	ml	0.6655	0.3345	0.331	NO — EDGE WINDOW	2026-05-09 18:24:29
Omega@HAVU	ml	0.4836	0.5164	0.033	YES	2026-05-09 18:24:29
Imperial@Yawara	ml	0.7548	0.2163	0.538	YES	2026-05-09 18:24:29

Intra-Market Arb Opportunities (Last 7 Days)

YES + NO costs less than $1.00 after fees = risk-free profit

Ticker	YES Cost	NO Cost	Combined	Net Profit	Scan	When
KXNBATEAMTOTAL-26MAY09DETCLE-DET113	17.0c	99.0c	84.0c	+9.07c	10am	2026-05-13 14:33:21

Closing Line Value (CLV) — Beat Pinnacle's Close?

If you consistently beat the closing line, you have an edge. Need 2000+ wagers for significance.

Scan	Edges w/ CLV	Beat Close	Beat %
10am	208	80	38.5%
12pm	42	18	42.9%
2pm	180	75	41.7%
6am	196	73	37.2%
8am	184	83	45.1%
closing	4	2	50.0%
manual	93	36	38.7%
ml-fix	18	9	50.0%
pregame	158	65	41.1%
sigma-test	18	7	38.9%
sp-test	18	10	55.6%
sp-test2	18	8	44.4%

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	wncaab	ml	14d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	ml	30d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	ml	60d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	ml	90d	13	92.3%	28.1%	0.4c	1.56
shin	wncaab	spread	14d	60	76.7%	43.7%	11.1c	1.49
shin	wncaab	spread	30d	60	76.7%	43.7%	11.1c	1.49
shin	wncaab	spread	60d	51	72.5%	38.5%	10.4c	1.42
shin	wncaab	spread	90d	51	72.5%	38.5%	10.4c	1.42
shin	esports_lol	ml	30d	69	73.9%	31.4%	3.2c	1.40
shin	wncaab	total	30d	6	66.7%	45.7%	9.9c	1.40
shin	nba	ml	14d	74	68.9%	35.7%	5.1c	1.37
shin	wncaab	total	14d	90	75.6%	18.7%	3.6c	1.35
shin	soccer	ml	14d	20	60.0%	46.2%	8.8c	1.33
shin	esports_lol	ml	60d	85	69.4%	21.2%	3.9c	1.30
shin	esports_lol	ml	90d	85	69.4%	21.2%	3.9c	1.30
shin	nba	ml	30d	228	64.9%	28.3%	3.5c	1.29
shin	soccer	btts	60d	217	65.4%	25.2%	6.5c	1.28
shin	soccer	btts	90d	217	65.4%	25.2%	6.5c	1.28
shin	esports_lol	ml	14d	23	60.9%	26.6%	6.6c	1.24
shin	wncaab	total	60d	199	70.9%	2.6%	-0.1c	1.22
shin	wncaab	total	90d	199	70.9%	2.6%	-0.1c	1.22
shin	nba	ml	60d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	90d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	esports_cod	ml	14d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	esports_cod	ml	30d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	esports_cod	ml	60d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	esports_cod	ml	90d	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c	1.21
shin	ncaab	total	60d	548	69.2%	-1.0%	3.9c	1.19
shin	ncaab	total	90d	548	69.2%	-1.0%	3.9c	1.19
shin	nba	total	30d	1696	62.4%	10.2%	5.0c	1.18
shin	soccer	total	30d	448	57.4%	18.0%	2.6c	1.16
shin	nba	total	60d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	90d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	14d	513	58.9%	10.3%	7.2c	1.14
shin	esports_cs2	ml	14d	76	61.8%	2.5%	8.9c	1.13
shin	soccer	total	60d	912	54.1%	8.6%	2.5c	1.08
shin	soccer	total	90d	912	54.1%	8.6%	2.5c	1.08
shin	nhl	spread	60d	1627	58.6%	-4.5%	9.8c	1.06
shin	nhl	spread	90d	1627	58.6%	-4.5%	9.8c	1.06
shin	nhl	spread	30d	627	57.3%	-2.0%	10.4c	1.06
shin	nhl	spread	14d	138	58.0%	-4.2%	11.4c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	14d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	30d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	60d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	ncaab	ml	90d	26	53.8%	3.6%	3.6c	1.06
shin	nba	spread	30d	1867	49.3%	12.3%	7.0c	1.05
shin	ncaab	total	14d	172	62.2%	-13.7%	4.2c	1.05
shin	ncaab	total	30d	172	62.2%	-13.7%	4.2c	1.05
shin	soccer	btts	30d	104	52.9%	4.9%	7.3c	1.05
shin	nhl	ml	60d	1183	52.2%	2.7%	2.0c	1.03
shin	nhl	ml	90d	1183	52.2%	2.7%	2.0c	1.03
shin	nhl	ml	30d	459	51.9%	2.8%	2.4c	1.03
shin	nhl	total	14d	292	47.3%	9.2%	3.7c	1.02
shin	esports_cs2	ml	30d	147	53.1%	-2.8%	8.4c	1.02
shin	nhl	ml	14d	90	52.2%	-3.8%	0.1c	1.00
shin	esports_valorant	ml	60d	196	50.0%	0.7%	5.5c	1.00
shin	esports_valorant	ml	90d	196	50.0%	0.7%	5.5c	1.00
shin	soccer	ml	30d	310	50.6%	-1.1%	5.8c	1.00
implied	nba	teamTotal	14d	855	53.8%	-7.9%	6.2c	1.00
implied	mlb	teamTotal	30d	55	61.8%	-24.4%	-11.6c	1.00
shin	soccer	total	14d	34	50.0%	-3.2%	3.3c	0.98
shin	mlb	total	30d	166	53.0%	-10.5%	-0.2c	0.98
shin	soccer	ml	60d	636	48.6%	-1.6%	5.8c	0.98
shin	soccer	ml	90d	636	48.6%	-1.6%	5.8c	0.98
null	esports_dota2	ml	60d	66	34.8%	23.8%	21.2c	0.97
null	esports_dota2	ml	90d	66	34.8%	23.8%	21.2c	0.97
null	nhl	total	30d	168	46.4%	-0.1%	5.9c	0.96
shin	nba	spread	14d	760	44.6%	3.2%	8.5c	0.96
implied	mlb	teamTotal	60d	500	54.8%	-18.0%	3.0c	0.96
implied	mlb	teamTotal	90d	500	54.8%	-18.0%	3.0c	0.96
shin	mlb	spread	30d	92	50.0%	-9.3%	14.5c	0.95
implied	nba	teamTotal	30d	2512	51.0%	-12.1%	3.3c	0.95
shin	esports_cs2	ml	60d	392	48.7%	-7.7%	5.7c	0.95
shin	esports_cs2	ml	90d	392	48.7%	-7.7%	5.7c	0.95
null	nhl	ml	30d	74	40.5%	8.6%	9.9c	0.95
implied	mlb	teamTotal	14d	712	54.5%	-19.5%	1.9c	0.95
null	esports_dota2	ml	14d	55	32.7%	23.3%	22.8c	0.94
null	esports_dota2	ml	30d	55	32.7%	23.3%	22.8c	0.94
shin	nhl	total	60d	4945	46.8%	-5.5%	3.5c	0.94
shin	nhl	total	90d	4945	46.8%	-5.5%	3.5c	0.94
shin	soccer	btts	14d	8	50.0%	-13.2%	6.7c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	60d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	90d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
implied	nba	teamTotal	60d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92
implied	nba	teamTotal	90d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92
shin	mlb	ml	60d	74	44.6%	-6.6%	3.3c	0.91
shin	mlb	ml	90d	74	44.6%	-6.6%	3.3c	0.91
shin	mlb	ml	14d	168	44.0%	-7.9%	2.2c	0.90
shin	nhl	total	30d	1445	44.2%	-8.8%	3.8c	0.90
shin	esports_valorant	ml	30d	111	45.0%	-11.5%	5.3c	0.89
shin	mlb	total	14d	855	41.2%	-5.3%	4.6c	0.89
null	nhl	ml	60d	156	37.2%	1.5%	8.6c	0.88
null	nhl	ml	90d	156	37.2%	1.5%	8.6c	0.88
null	nhl	total	60d	355	42.0%	-9.1%	7.2c	0.87
null	nhl	total	90d	355	42.0%	-9.1%	7.2c	0.87
shin	soccer	spread	30d	181	45.9%	-17.3%	9.5c	0.87
shin	mlb	total	60d	506	39.3%	-5.2%	5.6c	0.87
shin	mlb	total	90d	506	39.3%	-5.2%	5.6c	0.87
shin	mlb	ml	30d	64	40.6%	-14.9%	1.0c	0.83
shin	tennis_atp	ml	60d	1347	38.2%	-10.7%	6.3c	0.83

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Medium confidence (2/3 signals)	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
scan: recovery	8	8	100.0%	29.2c	4.8c
Moneyline market	13	12	92.3%	19.8c	0.4c
scan: manual	21	19	90.5%	22.9c	6.7c
scan: sigma-test	21	19	90.5%	24.5c	8.3c
Pre-game scan	7	6	85.7%	18.8c	3.3c
Confidence not scored yet	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	24	20	83.3%	40.1c	19.7c
8 AM scan	16	13	81.3%	14.9c	2.3c
10 AM scan	50	40	80.0%	10.3c	0.7c
2 PM scan	64	50	78.1%	6.3c	-0.8c
Large edge (8-15%)	69	53	76.8%	7.8c	10.1c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	50	38	76.0%	16.7c	19.9c
Medium edge (4-8%)	37	28	75.7%	2.6c	5.5c
Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
scan: ml-fix	20	15	75.0%	17.0c	1.2c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	59	44	74.6%	4.9c	3.4c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	178	130	73.0%	5.2c	4.3c
Pre-game scan	172	125	72.7%	4.7c	4.7c
Spread market	51	37	72.5%	19.6c	10.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	136	98	72.1%	4.2c	1.3c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	6	6	100.0%	12.4c	0.5c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	16	16	100.0%	55.7c	19.9c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	7	7	100.0%	30.6c	5.9c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	5	5	100.0%	42.6c	10.1c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + Moneyline market	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + No steam move	7	7	100.0%	58.1c	9.8c
scan: sigma-test + Extra-large edge (15%+)	5	5	100.0%	58.8c	19.5c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	5	5	100.0%	19.0c	5.6c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	6	6	100.0%	27.3c	0.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Spread market	19	18	94.7%	39.7c	10.4c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	13	12	92.3%	19.8c	0.4c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	12	11	91.7%	12.6c	5.7c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	10	9	90.0%	22.2c	0.4c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	7	6	85.7%	7.1c	1.0c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	13	11	84.6%	43.5c	19.1c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	13	11	84.6%	18.3c	-0.2c
mkt: map total + Small edge (2-4%)	55	46	83.6%	32.5c	3.3c
scan: manual + Large edge (8-15%)	6	5	83.3%	3.1c	8.7c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	17	14	82.4%	18.2c	11.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	11	9	81.8%	36.1c	20.3c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	16	13	81.3%	16.8c	-1.5c
scan: esports model anchor + Small edge (2-4%)	57	46	80.7%	29.9c	3.3c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	65	52	80.0%	9.2c	10.0c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	10	8	80.0%	8.7c	0.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	20	16	80.0%	5.5c	5.4c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	5	4	80.0%	-1.8c	5.0c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	15	12	80.0%	18.0c	11.4c
scan: sigma-test + Large edge (8-15%)	5	4	80.0%	-0.6c	8.7c
Medium confidence (2/3 signals) + mkt: map total	5	4	80.0%	42.3c	8.7c
scan: sp-test + Large edge (8-15%)	5	4	80.0%	-0.6c	8.7c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	20	16	80.0%	13.8c	-0.5c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	10	8	80.0%	17.0c	0.3c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	5	4	80.0%	18.4c	12.1c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	14	11	78.6%	28.7c	6.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	32	25	78.1%	11.4c	10.3c
Scheduled scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	86	67	77.9%	6.5c	6.2c
Scheduled scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	27	21	77.8%	21.6c	19.8c
Totals (over/under) market + Medium edge (4-8%)	27	21	77.8%	6.4c	5.2c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	9	7	77.8%	15.8c	-3.0c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	22	17	77.3%	14.6c	10.7c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: btts	57	44	77.2%	20.2c	3.0c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: map total	86	66	76.7%	24.8c	4.4c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	17	13	76.5%	-1.3c	10.8c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.9c	19.8c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	50	38	76.0%	16.7c	19.9c
2 PM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.9c	19.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.6c	20.1c
Pre-game scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.6c	20.1c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	19	76.0%	16.6c	20.1c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	37	28	75.7%	4.7c	9.8c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	37	28	75.7%	4.1c	-2.5c
Scheduled scan + Large edge (8-15%)	92	69	75.0%	5.6c	9.9c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	20	15	75.0%	12.2c	10.8c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	6	75.0%	0.5c	6.7c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	16	12	75.0%	16.8c	11.3c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	6	75.0%	-0.7c	5.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	8	6	75.0%	25.2c	20.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
scan: esports model anchor + Medium edge (4-8%)	16	12	75.0%	31.6c	6.9c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	8	6	75.0%	11.6c	-1.8c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	8	6	75.0%	42.5c	12.5c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	47	35	74.5%	-0.6c	-4.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	82	61	74.4%	6.5c	0.0c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	60	44	73.3%	3.4c	6.0c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	15	11	73.3%	16.0c	11.4c
scan: manual + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	19	73.1%	15.0c	20.2c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	19	73.1%	15.0c	20.2c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	19	73.1%	15.0c	20.2c
Scheduled scan + Small edge (2-4%)	48	35	72.9%	-4.2c	-6.1c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	11	8	72.7%	16.3c	6.3c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	272	197	72.4%	1.4c	2.5c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	43	31	72.1%	3.8c	5.9c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	136	98	72.1%	4.2c	1.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	95	68	71.6%	0.8c	-1.7c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	56	40	71.4%	2.8c	6.0c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
implied::teamTotal	2026-W19	180	52.8%	-12.3%	6.6c
	2026-W18	295	60.0%	-2.6%	4.9c
	2026-W17	646	50.6%	-9.9%	6.9c
	2026-W16	835	43.7%	-27.1%	1.7c
	2026-W15	774	52.2%	-2.6%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	3407	50.8%	-12.0%	-2.0c
	2026-W14	55	61.8%	-24.4%	-11.6c
	2026-W13	500	54.8%	-18.0%	3.0c
	2026-W13	1358	43.7%	-21.2%	-2.0c

shin::btts	2026-W18	4	50.0%	-9.0%	8.0c
	2026-W17	4	50.0%	-17.0%	5.4c
	2026-W16	68	47.1%	-2.4%	7.5c
	2026-W15	40	60.0%	11.6%	8.1c
	2026-W14	55	80.0%	59.1%	8.7c
	2026-W13	46	82.6%	41.5%	1.1c

shin::ml	2026-W19	32	40.6%	-24.1%	-0.6c
	2026-W19	7	85.7%	11.3%	1.9c
	2026-W19	18	38.9%	-40.7%	-0.2c
	2026-W19	18	94.4%	204.2%	2.7c
	2026-W19	54	42.6%	6.5%	10.5c
	2026-W19	12	83.3%	33.5%	7.6c
	2026-W19	6	33.3%	-23.1%	7.1c
	2026-W18	42	59.5%	-3.9%	8.0c
	2026-W18	11	0.0%	-100.0%	10.2c
	2026-W18	26	46.2%	-16.7%	0.3c
	2026-W18	14	42.9%	27.5%	8.2c
	2026-W18	201	30.8%	-30.2%	6.8c
	2026-W18	14	85.7%	20.3%	4.7c
	2026-W18	6	50.0%	-24.8%	-0.2c
	2026-W18	6	33.3%	2.9%	10.2c
	2026-W17	42	52.4%	4.2%	10.7c
	2026-W17	28	53.6%	17.1%	7.4c
	2026-W17	66	51.5%	14.7%	4.0c
	2026-W17	48	62.5%	13.5%	0.3c
	2026-W17	18	66.7%	22.8%	8.6c
	2026-W17	60	51.7%	19.4%	6.3c
	2026-W17	12	50.0%	35.1%	6.0c
	2026-W16	26	61.5%	32.7%	6.0c
	2026-W16	82	59.8%	-0.1%	3.5c
	2026-W16	142	49.3%	-10.4%	-0.5c
	2026-W16	181	48.6%	-4.7%	6.2c
	2026-W16	259	36.3%	-19.7%	7.1c
	2026-W16	18	50.0%	11.8%	6.8c
	2026-W16	20	75.0%	43.0%	1.5c
	2026-W16	27	48.1%	-1.0%	7.8c
	2026-W15	267	53.9%	14.4%	4.3c
	2026-W15	40	45.0%	-25.0%	5.0c
	2026-W15	32	37.5%	-21.1%	5.5c
	2026-W15	64	71.9%	74.2%	3.9c
	2026-W15	123	54.5%	8.8%	4.6c
	2026-W15	389	33.9%	-12.6%	6.4c
	2026-W15	24	91.7%	33.2%	1.9c
	2026-W15	6	0.0%	-100.0%	-1.2c
	2026-W14	134	50.7%	-2.9%	6.4c
	2026-W14	392	61.5%	4.0%	4.0c
	2026-W14	560	53.2%	5.2%	2.0c
	2026-W14	308	43.5%	-4.2%	5.0c
	2026-W14	23	26.1%	-48.4%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	16	50.0%	-18.5%	7.2c
	2026-W14	65	70.8%	29.4%	4.1c
	2026-W14	64	40.6%	-14.9%	1.0c
	2026-W14	166	45.8%	-6.2%	6.4c
	2026-W13	104	74.0%	21.2%	0.0c
	2026-W13	108	46.3%	-10.3%	1.3c
	2026-W13	22	59.1%	6.8%	1.2c
	2026-W13	6	50.0%	42.3%	3.8c
	2026-W13	95	36.8%	-22.4%	1.1c
	2026-W13	7	42.9%	-4.5%	14.0c
	2026-W13	74	44.6%	-6.6%	3.3c
	2026-W13	76	51.3%	20.4%	4.9c
	2026-W13	6	83.3%	54.4%	-0.2c
	2026-W13	134	44.8%	-7.3%	5.1c
	2026-W13	16	12.5%	-57.6%	10.0c
	2026-W12	16	37.5%	-30.3%	2.7c
	2026-W12	40	37.5%	-20.7%	5.1c
	2026-W12	4	25.0%	-25.4%	16.8c
	2026-W12	7	100.0%	14.4%	0.9c

shin::spread	2026-W19	47	48.9%	-13.6%	14.4c
	2026-W19	221	51.1%	23.1%	13.5c
	2026-W18	292	35.6%	-13.5%	4.2c
	2026-W18	47	66.0%	-0.2%	11.1c
	2026-W18	16	25.0%	-62.6%	10.1c
	2026-W17	413	44.8%	-4.9%	8.2c
	2026-W17	64	68.8%	3.7%	9.2c
	2026-W17	12	66.7%	21.8%	4.5c
	2026-W16	557	59.2%	34.8%	5.4c
	2026-W16	202	55.9%	-12.2%	11.4c
	2026-W16	82	37.8%	-18.1%	10.2c
	2026-W15	375	60.3%	9.2%	9.6c
	2026-W15	529	44.8%	-0.2%	6.2c
	2026-W15	83	50.6%	-19.8%	10.7c
	2026-W14	2620	39.5%	6.3%	3.7c
	2026-W14	714	59.2%	-3.4%	9.1c
	2026-W14	92	50.0%	-9.3%	14.5c
	2026-W14	16	37.5%	-20.3%	0.7c
	2026-W14	109	32.1%	-12.4%	12.7c
	2026-W13	969	30.9%	-18.2%	3.4c
	2026-W13	96	26.0%	-18.6%	-0.3c
	2026-W13	178	52.8%	-24.9%	9.5c
	2026-W13	50	74.0%	39.4%	10.6c
	2026-W13	289	29.4%	-30.7%	8.1c
	2026-W13	41	31.7%	-29.0%	11.7c
	2026-W12	227	44.9%	-18.1%	4.0c
	2026-W12	171	50.3%	4.1%	0.6c
	2026-W12	77	53.2%	-11.3%	9.7c
	2026-W12	11	18.2%	-79.5%	10.4c

shin::total	2026-W19	105	40.0%	-0.8%	2.7c
	2026-W19	122	84.4%	72.7%	5.1c
	2026-W18	152	59.9%	10.6%	5.9c
	2026-W18	100	56.0%	13.8%	1.7c
	2026-W18	28	57.1%	10.2%	3.4c
	2026-W17	395	53.4%	-7.0%	7.5c
	2026-W17	146	38.4%	-11.6%	6.1c
	2026-W17	22	40.9%	7.8%	4.5c
	2026-W16	608	56.7%	-4.9%	3.7c
	2026-W16	437	45.5%	-10.0%	2.8c
	2026-W16	266	57.1%	16.7%	2.7c
	2026-W15	845	45.9%	-8.7%	4.0c
	2026-W15	169	54.4%	14.6%	3.6c
	2026-W15	547	68.7%	30.6%	4.4c
	2026-W14	2909	62.8%	4.2%	3.8c
	2026-W14	1824	46.4%	-5.9%	3.1c
	2026-W14	250	51.2%	3.7%	2.3c
	2026-W14	166	53.0%	-10.5%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	6	66.7%	45.7%	9.9c
	2026-W13	1878	64.9%	-3.3%	3.7c
	2026-W13	261	67.0%	-10.2%	1.5c
	2026-W13	980	48.4%	-5.8%	3.1c
	2026-W13	136	69.1%	2.3%	1.3c
	2026-W13	506	39.3%	-5.2%	5.6c
	2026-W13	169	56.8%	1.7%	0.7c
	2026-W12	189	52.9%	-1.0%	5.5c
	2026-W12	287	71.1%	8.6%	6.2c
	2026-W12	508	49.2%	3.5%	5.1c
	2026-W12	57	75.4%	0.5%	-4.4c
	2026-W12	8	0.0%	-100.0%	12.2c

unknown::map_total	2026-W13	484	30.2%	2.2%	21.5c
	2026-W13	216	22.2%	-41.1%	11.4c

unknown::ml	2026-W19	4	0.0%	-100.0%	6.2c
	2026-W18	10	0.0%	-100.0%	7.4c
	2026-W16	12	0.0%	-100.0%	23.1c
	2026-W15	65	52.3%	26.3%	7.5c
	2026-W14	51	35.3%	3.0%	6.7c
	2026-W13	185	17.3%	-38.3%	27.8c
	2026-W13	66	34.8%	23.8%	21.2c
	2026-W13	105	11.4%	-54.9%	24.5c
	2026-W13	102	7.8%	-59.3%	30.6c
	2026-W13	14	42.9%	17.8%	10.0c

unknown::spread	2026-W19	14	0.0%	-100.0%	12.2c
	2026-W18	46	28.3%	10.9%	12.7c
	2026-W17	77	16.9%	-33.2%	12.5c
	2026-W16	116	14.7%	-42.8%	13.9c
	2026-W15	246	22.8%	-15.7%	13.8c
	2026-W14	258	29.5%	12.0%	13.5c
	2026-W13	64	31.3%	24.0%	16.2c

unknown::total	2026-W18	19	31.6%	-23.7%	5.1c
	2026-W17	25	24.0%	-42.8%	5.4c
	2026-W16	33	45.5%	13.9%	8.3c
	2026-W15	110	51.8%	3.3%	5.2c
	2026-W14	125	40.8%	-18.7%	5.8c
	2026-W13	42	33.3%	-2.5%	17.5c

Forex Regime Detection — Trending, Reverting, or Random?

Hurst exponent classifies each pair: >0.55 trending, <0.45 mean-reverting, else random walk. Coiled spring = breakout imminent.

Pair	Regime	Hurst	Autocorr	Contractions	BBW %ile	Spring?
AUD/USD	mean_reverting	0.368	-0.574	10	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.221	-0.391	10	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.425	-0.075	110	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.416	0.057	149	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.444	0.054	153	100%	no
EUR/AUD	mean_reverting	0.425	-0.029	165	100%	no
GBP/AUD	mean_reverting	0.395	-0.138	10	100%	no
NZD/USD	mean_reverting	0.370	-0.324	10	100%	no
USD/CAD	mean_reverting	0.174	-0.393	10	100%	no
USD/JPY	mean_reverting	0.376	-0.342	10	100%	no
USD/NOK	mean_reverting	0.403	-0.261	149	100%	no
USD/NOK	mean_reverting	0.446	-0.245	158	100%	no
USD/NOK	mean_reverting	0.440	-0.388	176	100%	no
USD/SEK	mean_reverting	0.445	-0.234	176	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.521	-0.413	25	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.535	-0.298	41	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.525	-0.266	46	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.514	-0.091	115	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.511	-0.071	122	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.543	0.049	131	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.546	-0.164	153	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.537	-0.197	160	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.548	-0.196	163	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.540	-0.197	165	100%	no
AUD/JPY	random_walk	0.526	-0.195	176	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.537	-0.014	110	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.519	-0.003	115	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.525	-0.002	119	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.514	-0.016	122	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.538	0.045	131	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.519	0.044	149	100%	no
AUD/USD	random_walk	0.521	-0.045	176	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.493	-0.042	105	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.460	-0.064	115	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.465	-0.048	119	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.456	-0.059	122	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.465	0.031	126	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.465	0.015	131	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.451	0.079	135	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.505	0.108	139	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.526	0.097	143	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.470	0.097	146	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.458	0.003	158	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.521	-0.012	160	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.468	-0.020	163	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.464	-0.026	168	100%	no
EUR/AUD	random_walk	0.459	-0.004	176	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.541	0.167	63	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.534	0.166	66	100%	no
EUR/CHF	random_walk	0.534	0.156	69	100%	no

GEX (Gamma Exposure)

Awaiting options chain data. GEX will populate when Polygon options collection runs.

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	20636	0.5925	0.4437	0.3111	0.3111
1	Exec Price (Yes)	660	0.5952	0.3763	0.4615	0.4615
1	Execution Price	9087	0.6012	0.3708	0.4525	0.4525
1	Execution Price	250	0.7042	0.4932	0.4128	0.4128
1	Execution Price	1061	0.5405	0.2737	0.5791	0.5791
1	Execution Price	1369	0.5778	0.4375	0.3066	0.3066
1	Execution Price	1347	0.5563	0.3272	0.5150	0.5150
1	Execution Price	2108	0.5605	0.3996	0.3410	0.3410
1	Execution Price	298	0.5327	0.2939	0.4576	0.4576
1	Net Edge	126	0.0412	0.1644	-0.3923	0.3923
1	Spread (cents)	85	3.6271	9.2692	-0.3849	0.3849
2	Exec Price (No)	20636	0.5620	0.5990	-0.0767	0.0767
2	Execution Price	660	0.7038	0.4944	0.4527	0.4527
2	Exec Price (No)	9087	0.5348	0.6216	-0.1692	0.1692
2	Net Edge (Yes)	250	-0.0972	0.0072	-0.2867	0.2867
2	Net Edge	1061	0.0679	0.2210	-0.4809	0.4809
2	Steam Magnitude	1369	0.2014	0.2596	-0.0545	0.0545
2	Net Edge	1347	0.0277	0.0856	-0.3303	0.3303
2	Net Edge	2108	0.0400	0.0668	-0.1642	0.1642
2	Execution Price	406	0.4682	0.3294	0.3648	0.3648
2	Net Edge	298	0.0519	0.1897	-0.4345	0.4345
2	Execution Price	126	0.4865	0.3298	0.3672	0.3672
3	Model Prob (Yes)	20636	0.4855	0.4446	0.0765	0.0765
3	Model Prob (Yes)	660	0.5981	0.3268	0.4291	0.4291
3	Net Edge (No)	9087	-0.0452	-0.0884	0.1598	0.1598
3	Net Edge (No)	250	-0.0942	-0.1733	0.2432	0.2432
3	Net Edge (No)	1061	-0.0971	-0.0114	-0.1542	0.1542
3	Steam Detected	1369	0.2538	0.2866	-0.0365	0.0365
3	Model Prob (Yes)	1347	0.4873	0.5045	-0.0452	0.0452
3	Net Edge (Yes)	2108	-0.0385	0.0030	-0.1577	0.1577

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W19	tennis_atp	ml	56	1.2	27.02%	100%	10.19%	0.0%
2026-W19	nhl	total	127	3.2	15.34%	99%	2.34%	0.0%
2026-W19	nhl	spread	71	2.5	26.25%	80%	15.37%	0.0%
2026-W19	nhl	ml	42	1.2	10.42%	90%	0.12%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	total	122	1.5	19.88%	100%	5.13%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	teamTotal	190	8.5	38.99%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	spread	223	1.5	25.42%	100%	13.38%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	ml	22	1.2	20.89%	100%	2.57%	0.0%
2026-W19	esports_valorant	ml	20	5.0	21.90%	100%	-0.53%	0.0%
2026-W19	esports_lol	ml	7	6.9	30.86%	100%	1.86%	0.0%
2026-W19	esports_dota2	ml	6	9.7	14.50%	100%	7.06%	0.0%
2026-W19	esports_cs2	ml	14	4.7	22.43%	100%	4.71%	0.0%
2026-W18	tennis_atp	ml	201	1.5	18.19%	100%	6.82%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	total	28	4.8	18.63%	100%	3.36%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	spread	16	4.3	47.28%	100%	10.10%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	ml	14	1.0	14.79%	100%	8.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	btts	4	1.3	0.63%	100%	7.98%	0.0%
2026-W18	nhl	total	130	7.9	14.73%	85%	1.76%	0.0%
2026-W18	nhl	spread	93	3.4	18.02%	51%	11.90%	0.0%
2026-W18	nhl	ml	36	1.2	11.33%	72%	2.27%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	total	152	2.0	20.82%	100%	5.88%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	teamTotal	313	10.5	31.74%	100%	4.34%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	spread	292	2.3	24.31%	100%	4.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	ml	14	1.0	25.64%	100%	4.74%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_valorant	ml	11	6.6	10.77%	100%	10.21%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_lol	ml	6	2.3	31.67%	100%	10.17%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_dota2	ml	6	6.0	12.17%	100%	-0.24%	0.0%
2026-W18	esports_cs2	ml	42	8.0	19.79%	100%	7.98%	0.0%
2026-W17	tennis_atp	ml	60	1.1	26.97%	100%	6.32%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	total	24	5.1	15.31%	100%	3.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	spread	12	7.8	33.25%	100%	4.52%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	ml	18	1.0	19.39%	100%	8.58%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	btts	4	1.5	0.75%	100%	5.42%	0.0%
2026-W17	nhl	total	185	5.3	13.98%	86%	5.25%	0.0%
2026-W17	nhl	spread	141	2.4	20.90%	45%	11.04%	0.0%
2026-W17	nhl	ml	48	1.2	4.81%	100%	0.29%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	total	398	2.3	14.83%	100%	7.44%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	teamTotal	705	11.3	25.28%	100%	6.19%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	spread	416	2.4	24.12%	100%	8.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	ml	66	1.1	19.13%	100%	3.99%	0.0%
2026-W17	esports_valorant	ml	28	7.3	22.12%	100%	7.37%	0.0%
2026-W17	esports_lol	ml	12	7.8	19.58%	100%	6.00%	0.0%
2026-W17	esports_cs2	ml	42	3.5	24.01%	100%	10.66%	0.0%
2026-W16	tennis_atp	ml	259	1.6	21.36%	100%	7.05%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	total	267	3.3	22.63%	100%	2.60%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	spread	89	11.9	28.78%	100%	8.87%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	ml	181	1.5	25.76%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	btts	68	5.8	10.22%	100%	7.48%	0.0%
2026-W16	nhl	total	555	9.3	14.09%	94%	1.82%	0.0%
2026-W16	nhl	spread	319	7.7	25.61%	63%	12.41%	0.0%

Regulatory Risk Monitor

Category-level regulatory exposure. Based on March 2026 panel analysis of lawsuits, legislation, and enforcement actions.

Category	Risk Tier	Score	Active Mkts	Settled	Reason
sports	HIGH	100%	0	0	Senate bill pursuing sports prediction market ban; WA lawsuit
politics	HIGH	100%	0	0	Insider trading enforcement; athlete/politician blocking
culture	MEDIUM	50%	0	0	Entertainment markets face moderate scrutiny
crypto	MEDIUM	50%	0	0	SEC oversight expanding to prediction markets
economics	LOW	20%	0	0	Fed/CPI markets least exposed to regulatory action
weather	LOW	20%	0	0	Weather markets face minimal regulatory pressure
science	LOW	20%	0	0	Science/tech markets face minimal regulatory pressure
nba	UNKNOWN	19%	1086	22854	No regulatory data for this category
nhl	UNKNOWN	18%	393	9666	No regulatory data for this category
tennis_atp	UNKNOWN	17%	213	1369	No regulatory data for this category
esports_cs2	UNKNOWN	15%	38	1311	No regulatory data for this category
esports_valorant	UNKNOWN	14%	27	298	No regulatory data for this category
soccer	UNKNOWN	14%	15	2161	No regulatory data for this category
esports_lol	UNKNOWN	13%	13	406	No regulatory data for this category
golf	UNKNOWN	13%	12	0	No regulatory data for this category
esports_dota2	UNKNOWN	13%	9	126	No regulatory data for this category
esports_cod	UNKNOWN	12%	6	6	No regulatory data for this category
ncaab	UNKNOWN	10%	0	673	No regulatory data for this category
wncaab	UNKNOWN	10%	0	264	No regulatory data for this category
mlb	UNKNOWN	10%	0	1457	No regulatory data for this category

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
pinnacle_move_size	kalshi_repriced	1	61.514	<0.001	negative	YES	5252
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	51.156	<0.001	negative	YES	39127
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	39.222	<0.001	positive	YES	39127
fx_USD_JPY	fx_GBP_USD	1	4.392	0.0361	negative	YES	175
pinnacle_move_size	kalshi_repriced	2	25.324	0.9787	negative	no	5251
pinnacle_move_size	kalshi_repriced	3	18.530	0.9953	negative	no	5250
fx_USD_JPY	fx_AUD_USD	1	2.671	0.1022	negative	no	175
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	2.476	0.1156	positive	no	39127
fx_USD_JPY	fx_EUR_USD	1	0.282	0.5955	negative	no	175
fx_GBP_USD	fx_EUR_USD	1	0.217	0.6412	positive	no	175
fx_GBP_USD	fx_USD_JPY	1	0.145	0.7033	negative	no	175
fx_AUD_USD	fx_USD_JPY	1	0.117	0.7323	negative	no	175
fx_EUR_USD	fx_AUD_USD	1	0.112	0.7379	positive	no	175
fx_GBP_USD	fx_AUD_USD	1	0.023	0.8794	positive	no	175
fx_AUD_USD	fx_EUR_USD	1	0.018	0.8919	positive	no	175
fx_EUR_USD	fx_GBP_USD	1	0.013	0.9078	positive	no	175
fx_EUR_USD	fx_USD_JPY	1	0.013	0.9102	negative	no	175
fx_AUD_USD	fx_GBP_USD	1	0.005	0.9453	positive	no	175

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