Soccer Strategy Spec v3.0

Updated: 2026-04-03 | Status: DEPLOYED — Edge Detection Active

Overview

The Soccer desk identifies mispricings between Kalshi prediction market prices and Pinnacle sharp odds across 20+ leagues. The edge detection engine uses a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson model to generate complete scoreline probability distributions, then compares model-implied probabilities against market prices to find edges of 4+ cents after Kalshi's 7% fee.

Market Types (4 Active)

Market	Scanner Key	Model	Priority
Over/Under (alt lines)	`total`	Dixon-Coles total probability	High
Asian Handicap / Spread	`spread`	Goal difference distribution	Highest
1X2 (incl. Draw)	`ml`	Dixon-Coles 3-way with Shin de-vig	Medium
Both Teams To Score	`btts`	League BTTS rate × total line ratio	Medium

Edge Detection Methodology

De-Vigging

2-way markets (O/U, AH, BTTS): Multiplicative normalization from Pinnacle odds
3-way markets (1X2): Shin method — corrects 1-3 point longshot bias that simple normalization introduces

Dixon-Coles Model

Bivariate Poisson with correlation parameter rho that corrects underestimation of draws and low-scoring outcomes (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1).

Inputs:

Team xG rates (Understat for Tier 1, Elo-derived for Tier 2)
Per-league home advantage coefficient (0.35–0.47)
Per-league Dixon-Coles rho (-0.09 to -0.13)
Per-league avg goals, draw rate, BTTS rate

Output: Full scoreline probability matrix → derives any market probability

Key Parameters

Parameter	Value
Min net edge	4 cents after fees
Kalshi fee rate	7% on profit
Kelly fraction	0.25 (quarter-Kelly)
Max single bet	5% bankroll
Max per game	10% bankroll
Max daily soccer exposure	25% bankroll
Daily drawdown stop	-5% of capital
Implied prob range	15%–85%
Min Kalshi volume	$500

No-Bet Rules

Unconfirmed lineup (pre-announcement)
Alt lines >5 rungs from anchor
Kalshi volume < $500
Net edge < 4 cents
Implied probability < 15% or > 85%
Cup match with extra time settlement complexity

League Coverage (20 Leagues)

Tier 1 — Full xG + Dixon-Coles

League	Key	rho	Avg Goals	Home Adv
Premier League	epl	-0.13	2.85	0.38
La Liga	la_liga	-0.12	2.65	0.42
Serie A	serie_a	-0.11	2.75	0.40
Bundesliga	bundesliga	-0.10	3.15	0.43
Ligue 1	ligue_1	-0.12	2.70	0.41
Champions League	ucl	-0.10	2.95	0.35

Tier 2 — Elo-Based (No xG Source)

MLS, Liga MX, Brasileirao, NWSL, Championship, La Liga 2, Serie B, 2. Bundesliga, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Scottish Prem, Turkish Super Lig, Europa League, Conference League

Data Sources & Collection Schedule

Source	Frequency	Time (ET)	Status
Kalshi Soccer Odds	Every 30 min	Continuous	DEPLOYED
Pinnacle Soccer Odds	Adaptive	Continuous	DEPLOYED
SBR Multi-Book (3-way ML)	4x daily	8AM/10AM/2PM/6PM	DEPLOYED
Pregame.com Sharp Money	3x daily	10AM/2PM/6PM	NOT AVAILABLE (no soccer)
Understat xG (Big 5)	Daily	11:00 AM	DEPLOYED
Soccer Team Stats (multi-source)	Daily	11:00 AM	DEPLOYED
Club Elo Ratings	Daily	11:00 AM	DEPLOYED
Football-Data.co.uk Results	Weekly	11:00 AM	DEPLOYED
Soccer Metrics (Elo/Form/H2H)	Daily	After results	DEPLOYED
Edge Scanner	4x daily	8AM/10AM/2PM/6PM + closing	DEPLOYED
Implied Probability Curves	With scanner	Continuous	DEPLOYED
Live Game Scores	Every 60s	During games	DEPLOYED
Settlement & CLV	Daily	6:00 AM	DEPLOYED
League Parameters	Config-based	Updated as needed	DEPLOYED

Scanner Configuration

Runs at 8AM, 10AM, 2PM, 6PM ET + closing window
Closing odds captured at gameStart - 20min
Steam detection: cross-market lag monitoring (Pinnacle → Kalshi, 5-15min window)
CLV tracking: closing line value for bet quality measurement
Brier scores: model calibration tracking

Settlement

Stored per match: Final score (FT), halftime score (HT), extra time flag, penalty shootout flag

Graded from final score + pre-game lines: W/D/L, ATS, O/U, BTTS results, prediction accuracy

Analyst Prompts (4 Specialists)

Prompt	Focus
soccer-elite-leagues	Big 5 + Eredivisie + Primeira. xG/Dixon-Coles/Elo
soccer-challenger-leagues	Championship, Bundesliga 2, Serie B, lower divisions. Club Elo primary
soccer-draw-btts	All leagues. Mispriced draws, BTTS, rho correction focus
soccer-situational	UCL rotation, relegation, fixture congestion, refs, weather

Soccer-Specific Edge Factors

xG differential — Expected Goals measures chance quality independent of actual scoring
Squad rotation — European fixture congestion drives massive rotation and fatigue
Lineup surprises — Key player absences create instant edges pre-adjustment
Referee tendencies — Penalty/card patterns affect O/U and BTTS pricing
Schedule density — Days rest + games in 14d + European fixture flag
Finishing skill persistence — Rolling xG overperformance across seasons

Future / TODO

Correct Score scanner — Dixon-Coles enables exact scoreline pricing; council recommended but not yet built
Double Chance scanner — 1X, X2, 12 markets; derivable from Dixon-Coles
Kalshi WebSocket upgrade — REST polling adequate for edge detection but insufficient for live execution. Required when desk moves to live trading
Betfair exchange integration — Exchange volume as sharpness signal (council recommendation)
Transfer window structural breaks — Auto-adjust team baselines at transfer windows
VAR impact parameters — League-specific VAR effects on penalty/goal rates
Weather/pitch API — Automate bad-conditions O/U suppression factor

Source: ~/edgeclaw/results/spec-panel/sports-desk/soccer-strategy.md