NHL Player Props — Model Anchor Calibration Prompt

Context: Our MLB Player Props council (2026-04-03) established the universal framework: per-possession/per-PA rates as foundation, Bayesian shrinkage toward career prior, Log-Odds opponent adjustment, Gaussian copula for correlated combo props, dual-anchor system (sportsbook + model) tracked via Brier scores, confidence tiers. This prompt asks for the SPORT-SPECIFIC parameters to plug into that framework.

NHL Player Props — Model Anchor Calibration

We need fair probabilities for: goals, assists, points, shots on goal, saves (goalies), power play points.

Questions:

1. NHL-specific stabilization constants for each prop? Goals are extremely rare — how many games to stabilize?
2. Which opponent stats matter per prop? (opponent GA/game for goals, opponent shots against for saves)
3. How should TOI projection work? PP1 vs PP2, even-strength vs special teams minutes.
4. What distributions per prop? Goals=Poisson? Shots=NegBin? Saves=Normal?
5. How should power play time and line combinations affect projections?
6. Goalie props: how to model saves given opponent shot volume and quality (xG against)?
7. What correlations exist between goals/assists/points for combo props?
8. NHL-specific regime changes: line shuffles, goalie platoons, back-to-backs, trade deadline.
9. EWMA alpha values per NHL prop type?
10. How should confirmed starting goalie impact skater prop projections (facing a backup = boost)?
11. Give specific numbers, formulas, and implementation-ready recommendations.