NHL First Goal Scorer Scanner — Council Ruling

Date: 2026-04-03 Council: 5-advisor panel (Opus, Sonnet, Gemini, Grok, gpt-oss-120b) Winner: Opus (strongest operational spec) Status: APPROVED — build deployed

Key Decisions

• Model: Competing Poisson race — P_i = lambda_i / Sum(lambda_j)
• Kelly: 1/8th (0.125x) — no sharp book anchor
• Max bet: $50 per player until 500+ settled predictions
• Edge tiers: 1.5% alert, 2.0% trade candidate, 3.0% high conviction (all require 30%+ relative)
• Goalie metric: GSAx preferred, SV% with dampener as fallback
• Calibration: Brier score + Platt scaling on historical data
• Paper trade: First 2 weeks before live capital
• What matters: TOI > line deployment > goalie quality > goals/60 EWMA
• What to ignore: H2H history, plus/minus, assists, hot streaks beyond EWMA

Council data

/home/ubuntu/edgeclaw/data/councils/2026-04-03/nhl-first-goal-scanner/