Monitors human crowd behavior — social media sentiment, expert predictions, and betting public patterns — to detect when crowd wisdom or crowd mania is creating mispricings on Kalshi. When experts unanimously agree on an outcome but the market is still pricing uncertainty, that's an edge. When Reddit is in a frenzy, the market may be overpriced.
Table: social_signals (551 rows)
Columns: source, subreddit, post_id, title, content_preview, score, comments, author
Schedule: Every 12 hours
What: Comment volume, upvotes, and sentiment from r/wallstreetbets, r/sportsbook, and other relevant subreddits. Crowd wisdom signal when calm, mania detection when volume spikes.
Status: COLLECTING
Table: expert_picks (0 rows)
Columns: source, sport, expert_name, game_date, home_team, away_team, pick, confidence
Schedule: 11 AM daily
What: Analyst game predictions with confidence levels and historical accuracy. When experts unanimously agree but Kalshi is pricing 50/50, the market is likely wrong.
Status: NOT COLLECTING — table empty, scraper may be broken
| Role | Model | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Data Collector | Llama 4 Maverick | Winner — 56/60, 0 false positives. Gathers raw human signals |
| Signal Analyst | Grok 4.1 Fast | Winner — 37/45, 0 dangerous. Interprets crowd signals |
| Contrarian | Sonnet 4.6 | Reused. Challenges the crowd thesis |
| Data Validator | DeepSeek R1 | Reused. Verifies data quality |
| Resolution Auditor | Gemini Flash | Reused from Settlement AI. Checks outcomes |
Table: expert_picks — 0 rows
What: Scraper exists (scrape-espn-picks) but table is empty. Either the scraper is failing silently or ESPN changed their page structure.
Impact: Missing a key "expert consensus" signal. This was supposed to be the desk's strongest edge for sports markets.
What: Real-time tweet volume and sentiment around specific events, players, teams. Volume spikes often precede prediction market moves. Impact: Would complement Reddit data with faster, more real-time signals. Not currently collected.
What: Public betting percentages from Action Network, Covers, or similar. Shows what percentage of bets (not dollars) are on each side. Impact: When public is heavily on one side but sharp money disagrees, that's a classic fade opportunity. Not collected.
What: Frequency analysis of topic mentions across sports media, financial media, and podcasts. Impact: Early detection of narrative shifts that move prediction markets. Low priority.
| Data Type | Frequency | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Reddit sentiment | Every 12h | Reddit API (free) |
| ESPN Expert Picks | 11 AM daily | ESPN scrape — NOT COLLECTING |
| Twitter/X sentiment | TBD | NOT BUILT |
| Betting public % | TBD | NOT BUILT |