Forex-Macro Desk — Data Collection Spec (Mar 28, 2026)

What This Desk Does

Trades FX and macroeconomic prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Compares prediction market prices against fundamental economic data, central bank signals, and institutional positioning to find mispricings in rate decision, inflation, and currency markets.

The desk runs daily on weekdays (7 AM ET). The macro sub-desk runs weekly on Mondays (6 AM ET) for longer-horizon calls.

DATA SOURCES

OANDA Forex Prices (17 pairs)

Table: forex_prices (216 rows) Columns: instrument, bid, ask, mid, spread_pips, captured_at Schedule: Every 4 hours on weekdays What: Live FX rates for 17 currency pairs — the real market prices that Kalshi FX contracts should converge to. Status: COLLECTING

FRED Economic Data (45 series)

Table: fred_data (20,979 rows) Schedule: 7 AM weekdays What: Core economic indicators from the Federal Reserve Economic Database. Free API.

Status: COLLECTING — 45 series, 10-year backfill complete

CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT)

Table: cot_positions (24 rows) Schedule: Saturdays 8 AM (weekly CFTC release) What: Large trader positioning in futures markets. Shows institutional sentiment — contrarian signal when positioning is extreme. Commodities tracked: Corn, Crude Oil, EUR, Gold, JPY, S&P 500, Silver, Soybeans, Wheat Columns: commodity, report_date, commercial long/short, non-commercial long/short, open interest Status: COLLECTING

CFTC COT — Forex Disaggregated

Table: cot_forex (8 rows) Columns: currency, report_date, dealer_long/short, asset_mgr_long/short, leveraged_long/short, other_long/short, nonrep_long/short, open_interest Schedule: Saturdays 8 AM What: Disaggregated forex COT — breaks out positioning by trader type (dealers, asset managers, leveraged funds). More granular than legacy COT. Status: COLLECTING

Treasury Daily Statement

Table: treasury_daily (30 rows) Columns: record_date, tga_balance, fetched_at Schedule: Weekdays 5 PM What: Treasury General Account balance — early signal for deficit/debt ceiling markets and liquidity conditions. Status: COLLECTING

Economic Calendar

Table: econ_calendar (34 rows) Columns: release_id, release_name, release_date, last_updated Schedule: 6:10 AM daily What: Upcoming economic data releases with dates — tells us which markets will move and when. Status: COLLECTING

Economics (BLS, CPI, GDP)

Table: econ_releases (117 rows) Sources: AAA gas prices, FedWatch rate probabilities, Freddie Mac mortgage rates, Treasury debt Schedule: 7:30 AM weekdays What: Real-time economic indicators — CPI, employment, rate expectations, housing costs. Status: COLLECTING (4 sources active)

Forex-Macro Consensus

Table: econ_consensus (0 rows) Schedule: 5:30 AM daily What: Survey expectations for rates and economic data — the "market expects" number that Kalshi prices should converge to. Status: NOT COLLECTING — table empty

Forex-Macro Metrics (Derived)

Table: forex_macro_metrics (65 rows) Columns: metric, value, components, computed_at Schedule: 6:15 AM daily What: 12 calculated composite signals: carry trade flows, FX basis, rate differentials, momentum, VIX/MOVE crossover — edge indicators derived from raw data. Status: COLLECTING

ANALYST PANEL

EVIDENCE CATEGORIES

Forex desk uses: central_bank_signals, macro_indicators, cot_positioning, carry_dynamics, intervention_risk, technical_levels, cross_market_flows, geopolitical_events, bank_order_flow, seasonality_patterns, safe_haven_flows, leading_indicators_pmi, trade_balance

Macro desk uses: gdp_trends, inflation_data, employment_figures, central_bank_minutes, yield_curve, leading_indicators, consumer_confidence, manufacturing_pmi, trade_balance, fiscal_policy, global_growth_divergence

DATA GAPS

Consensus Forecasts

Table: econ_consensus — 0 rows, not collecting What: Bloomberg/Reuters consensus expectations for upcoming economic releases. Critical for knowing whether a print is a beat or miss. Impact: Without consensus, the desk can't calculate surprise factor (actual - expected).

Real-Time FX Volatility

What: Implied volatility from FX options (1W, 1M, 3M tenors), risk reversals, butterfly spreads. Impact: Tells whether FX markets are pricing in a big move. Kalshi FX range markets should be compared against implied vol.

Central Bank Speech Sentiment

What: NLP scoring of Fed/ECB/BoJ speeches, meeting minutes, and press conferences. Impact: Forward guidance shifts move FX markets before actual rate decisions.

COLLECTION SCHEDULE